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DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week3 2022
DIEHARDS - WEEK 3 SUNDAY NIGHT SLATE
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com
SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 31-41
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 2-7
CHIEFS @ COLTS (1:00pm ET)
CHIEFS RB CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE OVER 16.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Clyde has been more involved in this offense than most people expected heading into this season. I feel like most experts assumed Isiah Pacheco would be involved earlier in the season. He has easily cleared this receiving yards total in each of the first two games this season totaling 44 and 32. CEH has caught at least three balls in both games this season. The Colts will be without Shaq Leonard once again which leaves Indianapolis very susceptible over the middle.
BILLS @ DOLPHINS (1:00pm ET)
DOLPHINS CHASE EDMONDS UNDER 34.5 RUSHING YARDS (-125)
Chase was simply not on the field much for the Dolphins amazing comeback victory over the Ravens. Raheem Mostert was the primary back and performed well. We know that Mike McDaniel has a prior relationship with Mostert being in San Francisco with him. It seems that Edmonds role will be primarily in a pass catching capacity on third down and hurry up situations. He has been under this rushing total in both games this season.
DOLPHINS WR TYREEK HILL OVER 24.5 LONGEST RECEPTION (-110)
The word got passed around this weekend that the Bills have lost their stud safety Micah Hyde for the season. That is a big blow to the back end of their defense and leaves them with a huge hole to fill. We all know what Tyreek Hill does best, blow the top off the defense and I think he gets loose at least once in this game. I truly believe this game is going to be a shootout.
EAGLES @ COMMANDERS (1:00pm ET)
EAGLES QB JALEN HURTS OVER 53.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
I am a Commanders fan and I just know that the Eagles are going to pound them this weekend. Philadelphia runs the ball better than most anyone in the league and Washington allows 157 yards per game on the ground. The Lions averaged eight yards on the ground per carry last week. Jalen has been over this rushing total in each of the first two games this season.
EAGLES WR DEVONTA SMITH OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (-115)
DeVonta was completely shut out in week one against the Lions. That surprised most everyone, even the Eagles because they made up for it by targeting him seven times in which he caught all seven for 80 yards in their week two win. I have targeted the slot receiver in each of the first two weeks this season against the Commanders defense and it has paid off big time. Christian Kirk had a fantastic debut in week one and Amon-Ra St. Brown exploded in week two. I believe DeVonta Smith will be the beneficiary in week three.
COMMANDERS QB CARSON WENTZ OVER 239.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
COMMANDERS QB CARSON WENTZ OVER 1.5 PASSING TDs (+115)
Carson has been the leading bright spot in this potent Commanders offense. The weapons in Washington are legit and Wentz has been taking full advantage. He has thrown for over 300 yards and more than two touchdowns in each of the first two games this season. While the Eagles defense is the toughest they've faced thus far, I believe they will still be able to move the ball.
SGP SPECIAL (+625):
Jalen Hurts 40+ Rushing Yards
Carson Wentz 225+ Passing Yards
Dallas Goedert 40+ Receiving Yards
DeVonta Smith 40+ Receiving Yards
Curtis Samuel 40+ Receiving Yards
BENGALS @ JETS (1:00pm ET)
BENGALS RB JOE MIXON OVER 20.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
This line continues to baffle me. I can't believe it hasn't gotten higher. He has caught ten balls this season for 89 yards. While Joe Burrow wants to push the ball down the field to Chase and Higgins, Mixon is always a fall back check down for him. I'm going to keep riding this prop until it gets too high and I just can't rationalize it anymore.
JETS WR GARRETT WILSON OVER 46.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
People seemed to think this rookie's week one performance was lackluster but his eight targets resulted in four catches for 52 yards. I'll take that in a debut especially because it showed me that the Jets wanted to get him involved often. Everyone has now taken notice of this kid's talent after his explosion in week two. In his second game of his career, he had eight catches on 14 targets for 102 yards and not one but two touchdowns. This prop is entirely too low and you should pound it accordingly.
LIONS @ VIKINGS (1:00pm ET)
VIKINGS TE IRV SMITH JR OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS (-130)
VIKINGS TE IRV SMITH JR OVER 28.5 RECEPTIONS (-115)
After the Vikings failed to get their tight end involved in week one against the Packers, they targeted him eight times on Monday night against the Eagles. He caught five balls for 36 yards in prime time. Some may call this chasing but I believe that the Vikings need to get someone else involved besides Justin Jefferson since they don't seem to like Adam Thielen anymore. The Lions have allowed a tight end to reach these numbers in each of their first two games.
LIONS QB JARED GOFF OVER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (-120)
Jared has lots of weapons at his disposal, very similar to Carson Wentz in Washington. He has had two passing touchdowns in each of the first two games this season. I know that is not a big sample size but I fully expect this game to be a back and forth affair. The Lions will have to score to stay in this game because their defense has fallen apart in the second half of both their games. He could easily throw another one to his best weapon Amon-Ra St. Brown and another to Swift or Hockenson.
RAVENS @ PATRIOTS (1:00pm ET)
RAVENS QB LAMAR JACKSON OVER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (+120)
The disrespect for Lamar Jackson continues as they are giving you plus odds for the former MVP to throw just two touchdowns in this game. I understand that Belichick is a mastermind when it comes to defense but Lamar has six touchdown passes through two games this season. The running game has not been consistent this season which has forced Lamar to take the game into his own hands.
RAVENS WR RASHOD BATEMAN OVER 20.5 LONGEST RECEPTION (-110)
You have to be impressed with Bateman thus far this season. He took over as the lead dog in this Ravens passing game with the departure of Marquise Brown. Bateman is not a volume receiver, he can take the top off the defense and has in both games this season. 50 plus yard receptions in both games and I believe he can get loose once again against New England.
RAIDERS @ TITANS (1:00pm ET)
TITANS RB DERRICK HENRY OVER 20.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (+100)
TITANS RB DERRICK HENRY OVER 78.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
This is the game that the Titans get back to doing what they do best, run the ball. The Raiders are notoriously bad against the run and are allowing close to 110 yards per game. If Derrick Henry can't get things going against this Raiders defense, it is going to be a long season in Nashville. They need to get the run game going to give Ryan Tannehill a chance to run play action.
SGP SPECIAL (+550):
Derrick Henry 65+ Rushing Yards
Robert Woods UNDER 59.5 Receiving Yards
Darren Waller 35+ Receiving Yards
Treylon Burks 35+ Receiving Yards
Mack Hollins 30+ Receiving Yards
SAINTS @ PANTHERS (1:00pm ET)
SAINTS QB JAMEIS WINSTON OVER 221.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
SAINTS QB JAMEIS WINSTON OVER 1.5 PASSING TDs (+135)
The Panthers defense has looked deceivingly good through the first two games of the season because of who they have played. Carolina faced a Jacoby Brissett led offense in week one and Daniel Jones in week two. This will be the first legit offense they've faced this season and I think they'll get exposed at home. Jameis has been over this passing yards total in both games this season including a very talented Buccaneers defense and had two passing touchdowns in week one against the Falcons. Both of these numbers are reasonable to achieve against this defense.
SAINTS WR CHRIS OLAVE OVER 39.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-130)
The one negative to this article coming out on Saturday night or Sunday morning is that you can't take advantage of the better numbers and odds earlier in the week. This receiving total has gone up during the week and the current odds are not great. Olave's unrealized air yards have been insane, especially last week against the Buccaneers. Seeing those numbers, it just tells you that he's just bound to have a monster week and I feel like this could be it against this secondary. His job is to run fast, Jameis fires it long and he is supposed to go and get it. I think he catches at least one bomb of 50 plus yards in this game.
TEXANS @ BEARS (1:00pm ET)
BEARS QB JUSTIN FIELDS UNDER 25.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-130)
This number baffles me because he hasn't even come close to 20 pass attempts in a single game this season. He threw the ball just 11 times in the Bears week two embarrassment at the hands of the Green Bay Packers. They want to run the ball and then take shots when possible. The Bears do not want to put the game in his hands which tells me they have no confidence in the young quarterback.
BEARS RB KHALIL HERBERT OVER 26.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Everyone will be on David Montgomery's props in this game because the Texans have been awful against the run this season. I will say that a lot of that is due to playing Jonathan Taylor in week one but overall, they don't handle the run well. They are allowing 163 yards per game on the ground. Herbert does play behind Montgomery in the pecking order but he gets carries every week and has surpassed this rushing total in both games this season.
TEXANS RB DAMEON PIERCE OVER 60.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
While the Texans have been bad against the run this season, the Bears have actually been worse allowing nearly 200 yards per game on the ground (183 to be exact). Dameon Pierce is a guy that everyone has been waiting to break out after his brilliant preseason performances. If he is going to break out, it has to be this week against the Bears and their awful run defense.
JAGUARS @ CHARGERS (4:05pm ET)
JAGUARS RB TRAVIS ETIENNE OVER 45.5 RUSH + REC YARDS (-125)
Travis has fallen out of favor with the Fantasy Football community as he's not getting involved as much as players would like to see. If you look closely though, his usage is increasing. He started with just six in week one, then had 12 in week two and went over this total yards in both games. This playmaking running back will need to be involved if Jacksonville wants any chance of staying in this game. This is just too low for a player with his talent.
RAMS @ CARDINALS (4:25pm ET)
CARDINALS WR GREG DORTCH OVER 35.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
CARDINALS WR GREG DORTCH OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (+105)
As long as DeAndre Hopkins is out of the lineup, Greg Dortch is picking up the slack in the receiving core in the form of targets. Dortch has been over these totals in both games this season. The last few games between these two teams have been track meets. Both teams will be throwing the ball all over the yard to outscore each other.
RAMS TE TYLER HIGBEE OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-115)
We all know how much Matthew Stafford loves throwing the ball to Cooper Kupp and most assumed that Allen Robinson would be the second option but it has been Tyler Higbee. Tyler has 20 targets through the first two games this season with 12 catches. I feel like those numbers will come down as the season progresses but for now, I'm going to ride the hot hand in this offense.
PACKERS @ BUCCANEERS (4:25pm ET)
BUCCANEERS RB LEONARD FOURNETTE OVER 69.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
BUCCANEERS RB LEONARD FOURNETTE OVER 15.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-145)
Fournette will be the entire offense on Sunday against the Packers. The Bucs will be without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and maybe Julio Jones as well. They are going to have to force feed him the ball on the ground and through the air. He has 20+ carries in each of the first two games this season. While he didn't get to the 70 yards last week against the Saints, the Packers are allowing 153 yards per game on the ground.
FALCONS @ SEAHAWKS (4:25pm ET)
FALCONS WR DRAKE LONDON OVER 53.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Drake London has been everything we wanted him to be and more since he was drafted out of USC. He had five catches for 74 yards in week one and upped that number in week two with eight catches for 86 yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks has allowed 257 yards per game through the yard and I feel like a good chunk of that yardage is going to go to London. I want Pitts to be involved more but right now Drake is the guy Mariota has eyes for.