Diehards Sunday Prop Bets Week 16 2023

DIEHARDS - WEEK 16 - SUNDAY SLATE

Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com (@DrewPhelps05)

All Props Based off DraftKings Odds

SINGLE PROP 2023 REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

WEEK 16: 4-3

OVERALL: 201-213

LIONS @ VIKINGS (1pm ET)

VIKINGS WR JORDAN ADDISON OVER 48.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

Nick Mullins is no savior but he is a competent NFL backup. He threw for over 300 yards last week against the Bengals and over 100 of those yards went to Jordan Addison. When Justin Jefferson is on the field, attention is take away from the rookie wideout and he is able to thrive. Detroit defense has been giving up points in bunches and I don’t think that changes in Week 16.  They allow 251 yards per game through the air on the road this season.  

SEAHAWKS @ TITANS (1pm ET)

SEAHAWKS WR DK METCALF OVER 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Geno Smith takes back over at quarterback this weekend as the team hits the road to face the Titans. We know that Geno and DK have a good connection, well he gets a fantastic matchup against a Titans defense that allows 175 yards per game to the wide receiver position per game (5th most in the league). He has been over this number in 8 of the teams 15 games played this season. I have full confidence he gets to 9 this weekend. 

BROWNS @ TEXANS (1pm ET)

BROWNS TE DAVID NJOKU OVER 50.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115) 

Joe Flacco loves David Njoku. I have never seen this guy get so much love in the passing game. Njoku had 14 targets in Week 15 and caught 10 of those balls for 104 yards and a touchdown. Chicago was middle of the pack against the Tight End but the Texans allows the 4th most yards per game to that position at 59 yards per game. I don’t see any record why this connection can’t continue because the Browns have completely turned into a passing offense since Joe Flacco took over. 

JETS @ COMMANDERS (1pm ET)

JETS WR GARRETT WILSON OVER 62.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115) 

It’s rinse and repeat when it comes to the Commander secondary. They straight suck on the outside. I truly don’t care who is throwing the ball or the fact that Wilson has been under this total in 2 of their last 3 games. This is a dream matchup for any wideout, they are DEAD last against the wide receiver position. Play this with confidence.

JETS RB BREECE HALL OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115) 

If you’ve been reading my articles all season, I was pushing the receiving total for a running back against the Commanders cause it hit like 4 weeks straight but I’m going back to the well with this one. Breece had been over this number in 6 of their last 8 games but last week’s debacle for the Jets. The Commanders have allowed a running back to go over this number in 7 of their last 9. 

COLTS @ FALCONS (1pm ET)

FALCONS K YOUNGHOE KOO OVER 1.5 FIELD GOALS (-135)

I really don’t like a lot in this game. I believe in Arthur Smith doing something stupid, so I can’t trust anything in the Falcons offense. He has only hit this prop 1 time in his last 5 games. Atlanta is 20th in the league in red zone efficiency, giving Younghoe opportunities to make field goals. 

PACKERS @ PANTHERS (1pm ET)

PACKERS QB JORDAN LOVE OVER 32.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-120)

Jordan Love has been throwing the ball all over the yard for the last couple months. He has thrown the ball 32 times or more in 6 straight games. I will say that Carolina has been good against the pass, they are 3rd in passing yards allowed per game on the season. That’s why I’m not betting the yardage and keeping it to the pass attempts. 

JAGUARS @ BUCCANEERS (4:05pm ET)

JAGUARS TE EVAN ENGRAM OVER 54.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)

The Buccaneers allow the 3rd most receiving yards to the tight end position per game. Engram had a down game in Week 15 against the Ravens but this is a perfect bounce back spot in a great matchup. In the two games prior to the Ravens, he had 95 and 82 yards respectively. Trevor targeted him 8, 9, 12 and then 6 last week. 

CARDINALS @ BEARS (4:25pm ET)

CARDINALS TE TREY MCBRIDE OVER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Kyler Murray loves everything about his tight ends right now. He threw for 211 yards last week and 172 of the yards went to different tight ends. Trey is definitely the front runner for those targets, he’s had 9, 9, and 11 in his last 3 games. He had caught at least 60 yards in 3 straight games. The Bears are basically middle of the pack against the tight end but they allowed David Njoku to go crazy against them in Week 15. 

BEARS QB JUSTIN FIELDS OVER 9.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-135)

I really want to take the rushing total too but I think this is safer. The Cardinals allow the 2nd most rushing yards per game but not to quarterbacks. Justin has been over this number in 3 of his last 4 games and he should easily get there today.

COWBOYS @ DOLPHINS (4:25pm ET)

DOLPHINS RB RAHEEM MOSTERT OVER 55.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)

As much as everyone loves De’Von Achane, Mostert is still getting the bulk of the carries. The last four weeks, he’s carried the ball 20, 11, 21 and 15 times. I like him because of the workload and did you see what James Cook did to this Cowboys defense last week? You don’t think Mike McDaniel watched that game film and said that’s exactly what we’re gonna do? Raheem has been over this rushing total in 4 of their last 6.

DOLPHINS QB TUA TAGOVAILOA UNDER 267.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

I bet you didn’t know that Tua has been under this passing number in 3 of his last 4 games and 4 of his last 6. Josh Allen threw for less than 100 yards and Jalen Hurts threw for less than 200 yards against this Cowboys defense in the last 2 weeks. The Dolphins are going to focus on their run game in this one and Tua won’t have to carry them on his back.