Diehards Sunday Prop Bets Week 5 2023

DIEHARDS - WEEK 5 - SUNDAY SLATE

Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com (@DrewPhelps05)

All Props Based off DraftKings Odds

SINGLE PROP 2023 REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

WEEK 5: 3-0

OVERALL: 64-72

JAGUARS @ BILLS (9:30a)

JAGUARS QB TREVOR LAWRENCE UNDER 247.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

I think most everyone expected Trevor Lawrence to have a big season but thus far it’s been a disappointment. He’s had just 1 game of over 250 yards passing and 1 game over 1 passing touchdowns. This Bills defense held this hyped Dolphins in check. Buffalo has only allowed 1 Quarterback to throw for over 250 passing yards and that was Tua, Lawrence is not playing at Tua’s level.

BILLS WR STEFON DIGGS OVER 84.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

It’s hard to ignore Stefon Diggs’ production. He has been over 100 yards receiving in 3 of their 4 games this season. He exploded for 120 and 3 touchdowns against the Dolphins in Week 4. A wide receiver has gone over this receiving total in 2 of the 4 games against this Jaguars defense. They are middle of the road against the wide receiver position on the year but when you look at their opponents, they’ve only faced one really good passing offense. This should be no problem for Diggs. 

RAVENS @ STEELERS (1:00p)

RAVENS RB GUS EDWARDS OVER 49.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

This is not a sexy pick but I think it’s a smart one. He carried the ball 15 of the 22 total carries in the game for the Ravens in Week 4. Edwards is the lead dog at this point with Melvin Gordon and Justice Hill playing their roles. The Ravens get a premium matchup for the running back spot in Week 5 against the Steelers who rank 2nd to last against the position. They allow 126 yards per game on the ground.

GIANTS @ DOLPHINS (1:00p)

GIANTS QB DANIEL JONES OVER 37.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

The only offense for the Giants at this point has been Daniel Jones rushing. He has carried the ball at least 9 times in 3 of their 4 games thus far for at least 50 yards in all 3 of those. The Dolphins have been good against quarterbacks rushing the ball thus far but they haven’t faced anyone that runs as much as Jones does on a weekly basis. 


DOLPHINS RB DEVON ACHANE OVER 66.5 RUSH + RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

This number almost seems unfair. The Dolphins run game has been unstoppable the last few weeks. Achane’s emergence has been a big part of that. He has accumulated 350 yards of total offense over the last two games, just think about that. The Giants allow the 4th most rushing yards in the league. In every game this year, New York has allowed a running back to go over this number comfortably. 

PANTHERS @ LIONS (1:00p)

LIONS WR JOSH REYNOLDS OVER 44.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I feel like this is a sneaky play that no one is talking about. We’ve got no Amon-Ra St. Brown in this game, which means players like Reynolds, Raymond, and LaPorta need to step up. Even when St. Brown has been in the lineup, Reynolds has gone over this receiving total in 3 of his 4 games. The Panthers have allowed at least one receiver to go over 85 receiving yards in 3 of their 4 games this season. The only one they didn’t was against that terrible Falcons passing attack. 

PANTHERS RB CHUBA HUBBARD OVER 24.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

This may be crazy because the Lions have been one of the best teams in the league against the run but I’ve got a feeling here. This is such a low threshold for a running back to reach. In any game this season that he’s gotten at least 5 carries, he has crossed this number easily. He actually had more carries than Miles Sanders in Week 4. I don’t blame you if you pass on this but with a rookie quarterback who has not been great in the passing game, they need to lean on the run.

TEXANS @ FALCONS (1:00p)

FALCONS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 21.5 (-118)

This team has managed just 13 total points over the last two weeks. When you are basically one dimensional, it’s hard to score points in the NFL. The Texans are not great against the run and I expect Bijan Robinson to have a good game but I think Houston wins their third straight. Houston has held their last two opponents to a total of 23 points.  

TEXANS WR NICO COLLINS OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (+100)

We’ve heard a lot about the 3rd year wide receiver breakout and that’s what seems to be happening with Nico Collins. We knew he had the talent but now he has someone with the arm talent to throw him the ball. Nico is getting at least 65% of the snaps in 3 of his 4 games, at least 9 targets in 3 of his 4 games, and 6 catches in 3 of his 4 games. Christian Kirk lit up this secondary in the slot last week.

TITANS @ COLTS (1:00p)

TITANS WR DEANDRE HOPKINS OVER 53.5 RUSHING YARDS (-135)

TITANS WR DEANDRE HOPKINS OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-125)

Everyone knows how Derrick Henry has owned the Colts throughout his career but this will be a passing game for the Titans. There will be no Burks in this game for the Titans, Hopkins will have to be the guy. Indianapolis has been torched by top receivers throughout the season. They’ve allowed a 100 yard receiver in 3 of their 4 games. Despite having less snaps, Hopkins still leads the team in targets by nearly double the next player. This will be the game that his fantasy owners have been dreaming about when they drafted him. 

COLTS QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN (+135)

He has a rushing touchdown in all 3 games that he’s played this season. That’s basically all he can do at this point in his career is run the ball. He is a dynamic physical specimen which is why I believe he’ll get this done. I know the Colts have not allowed a rushing touchdown to a quarterback this season but no one except MAYBE Deshaun Watson would be considered rushing quarterbacks. 

SAINTS @ PATRIOTS (1:00p)

PATRIOTS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 19.5 (-105)

New England has scored less points in each game this season. They scored 20 in Week 1, scored 17 in Week 2, scored 15 in Week 3, and scored 3 in Week 4. No, I don’t think they score less than 3 but the Saints have a legit defense. Last week against the Buccaneers was the first time New Orleans has allowed someone to score more than 20 points. I feel like Mac Jones has regressed and is going to continue to struggle in Week 5.

SAINTS RB ALVIN KAMARA UNDER 15.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-125)

Kamara is still getting worked back into shape. He only had 11 carries in his first game back from the suspension. Only one running back has rushed for more than 55 yards against this Patriots defense. I feel like they are going to continue to use him in the passing game. Only one back even carried the ball more than 14 times in a game.

EAGLES @ RAMS (4:05p)

RAMS WR COOPER KUPP OVER 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

RAMS WR COOPER KUPP ALT 70+ RECEIVING YARDS (+140)

You will never see Kupp’s receiving total lower than this, and I just can’t pass it up and that’s why I’m for either or both of these bets. I know this is his first game back after the injury but this is Matt Stafford’s favorite target. He has gone over this receiving total in 24 of his last full 25 games played. The Eagles are in the bottom 10 in the league against the pass on the season. 

BENGALS @ CARDINALS (4:05p)

CARDINALS QB JOSH DOBBS OVER 220.5 PASSING YARDS (+105)

CARDINALS WR MICHAEL WILSON OVER 36.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Josh has been over this passing total in 2 of his 4 games as the Cardinals starter. He has actually done a good job, much better than most people expected. The Bengals have allowed 3 of their 4 opposing quarterbacks to go over this passing total. When you look at the Bengals against the wide receiver position, they have had at least 2 receivers in each game go over this number. Week 1 had 2, Week 2 had 2, Week 3 had 3, and Week 4 had 3. Wilson had a breakout in Week 4 with 7 catches for 76 yards and two touchdowns.  He’s been solid for a rookie. He has cleared this receiving total in 3 of his 4 games thus far. 

CHIEFS @ VIKINGS (4:25p)

CHIEFS WR RASHEE RICE OVER 32.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-130)

This is more of a gut feeling play here. The trends are there for Rashee to have a breakout. The snap percentage has moved up to basically 50% for each of the last two weeks. Rice actually leads the team in total targets. He has had at least 32 receiving yards in each of his last two games. The Vikings allow the 3rd most receiving yards in the league, he should see plenty of work to get this number.

CHIEFS WR JUSTIN WATSON OVER 19.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)

Week 4 was the first time all season that Watson did not easily clear this number. He has had at least 45 yards receiving in the first three games this season. He seems to be that go-to guy in a big situation and I see this game as a shootout between two good offenses. 

CHIEFS QB PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 4.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-110)

The rushing has been pretty consistent this season. He has had at least 6 carries in 3 of his 4 games. The Vikings have had 2 of their 4 opposing quarterbacks carry the ball 8 times or more. It seems like he feels the need to carry the team on his back but it’s been more than ever this season. 

JETS @ BRONCOS (4:25p)

BRONCOS WR MARVIN MIMS OVER 22.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

I know the Jets have a really good secondary but their top guys will be focused on Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. I feel like he’ll be lost in the shuffle of everything. Believe it or not, since Week 1, he has cleared this receiving total easily with at least 47 yards. Mims makes the most of his nearly 3 targets per game.  


JETS WR GARRETT WILSON OVER 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

Zach Wilson only has eyes for his brother Wilson. The fact that Pat Surtain will be following him doesn’t scare me. He averages 9 targets per game and has played at least 91% of the snaps in each game. That won’t change in Week 5. Garrett has cleared this receiving total in 2 of the 4 games. The Broncos allow the 8th most receiving yards in the NFL. They have allowed 5 receivers go over this total on the season.