DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week4 2022

DIEHARDS - WEEK 4 SUNDAY SLATE GAME
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com

SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 53-54
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 2-9
 

VIKINGS @ SAINTS (9:30am ET)

SAINTS RB ALVIN KAMARA OVER 26.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Andy Dalton is all but certain to start on Sunday in London. This means more check downs and less downfield throws. You have to think that the Saints will lean on Kamara to help Dalton get through this game against the Vikings. I know his usage has been down this season but that's with Winston at the helm of the offense.

VIKINGS QB KIRK COUSINS OVER 21.5 PASS COMPLETIONS (-125)

Most everyone expected Cousins to bounce back in Week 3 after his terrible Monday Night Football performance against the Eagles. While it wasn't a bad game, it wasn't a great performance against the Lions in Week 3. Kirk has been over this completion total in each game this season. I think Kirk lights it up across the pond against the Saints.

BILLS @ RAVENS (1:00pm ET)

RAVENS QB LAMAR JACKSON OVER 55.5 RUSHING YARDS (-125)

This game was slated to be a shootout all week until the weather report came out. Hurricane Ian which ripped through Florida is making its way up the east coast and is expected to make landfall in Baltimore on Sunday morning. It is expected to rain all game long with winds in the teens. This game will be won on the ground not through the air like everyone expected. On top of all that, Lamar has been over 100 yards rushing in back to back games coming into this game against Buffalo.

RAVENS RB J.K. DOBBINS OVER 37.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

You just read about why I think this game will be won on the ground. Lamar can't do all the running in this game which means Dobbins will have to be involved. He got his first taste of action last week with seven carries but I think his workload slowly increases over the coming weeks. This is just too low of a number for a starting running back in a run heavy offense.

RAVENS WR RASHOD BATEMAN OVER 20.5 LONGEST RECEPTION (-110)

Yes, I just said this game will be won on the ground but it doesn't mean they won't throw the ball at all. Bateman has been the consistent deep threat in this offense and has cleared this prop easily in every game this season. I think Lamar definitely takes a shot or two down to Bateman.

JAGUARS @ EAGLES (1:00pm ET)

JAGUARS RB TRAVIS ETIENNE OVER 46.5 RUSH+RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

JAGUARS RB TRAVIS ETIENNE OVER 17.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

If you can't tell, I really love Travis Etienne this weekend. The game script is going to play to his favor over James Robinson and it's because the Jaguars will likely be playing from behind. I think most feel that the Eagles will get up in this game and that'll put the Jaguars into chase mode. Robinson does not play in the hurry up offense, but Etienne does. Travis has been over both of these totals in the last two games even in games where the script didn't favor him.

EAGLES RB MILES SANDERS UNDER 15.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-110)

Sanders has been under this prop in two of the Eagles three games this season. Even in a game like the Commanders where the game was in hand after the first half, he still didn't get to 16 carries. The Jaguars are solid against the run, actually allowing the fewest yards on the ground this season through three games. He is the lead back, but the Eagles like to split the work between three backs.

EAGLES WR DEVONTA SMITH OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (+120)

DeVonta's targets have increased each game this season starting with four in Week 1, seven in Week 2 and 12 in Week 3. I don't expect 12 every week but when teams make the decision to double team A.J. Brown, DeVonta is going to feast in single coverage. The Jaguars are not as good against the pass allowing 251 yards per game through the air. The plus odds are just too tasty to pass up for a guy that's had seven and eight catches the last two games.

TITANS @ COLTS (1:00pm ET)

TITANS RB DERRICK HENRY OVER 19.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-105)

I am going to go back to this well. The fact that it has dropped under 20 carries is just too tasty to pass up this week. While the Colts are solid against the run, Henry is going to get his touches. Henry has averaged 5.2 yards per carry against the Colts in his career and averaged over 25 carries per game over his last three games against Indianapolis.

COMMANDERS @ COWBOYS (1:00pm ET)

COWBOYS WR CEEDEE LAMB OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (+120)

COWBOYS WR CEEDEE LAMB OVER 62.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

If you can't tell, I love CeeDee Lamb this weekend. If you've read my articles this season, you know how much I've been targeting the Commanders secondary when it comes to props. I won in Week 1 with Christian Kirk, I won in Week 2 with Amon-Ra St. Brown, I won in Week 3 with DeVonta Smith and I'll win again in Week 4 with Lamb. The Commanders allow 274 yards per game through the air and that still seems low to me. Cooper Rush has kept Lamb's value up targeting him 23 times in his two starts for a total of 15 catches.

COWBOYS RB TONY POLLARD OVER 61.5 RUSH+RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I rode this prop to a nice win on Monday Night Football as he smashed this over against the Giants. Pollard is getting more involved in the offense each week and it's about damn time. It is obvious that he's the better back in Dallas right now. The Commanders are allowing OVER 400 yards of total offense per game. They just don't have the horses to keep up with high powered offenses.

COWBOYS DEMARCUS LAWRENCE OVER 0.75 SACKS (-105)

This might be the biggest lock button winner of the weekend. The Commanders have allowed 15 sacks in just three games this season including seven last week against the Eagles. The Cowboys lead the NFL in most sacks with 13. I'd bet Micah Parsons but the odds on that are terrible, but Lawrence has a much more reasonable number. Jump all over this one and thank me later.

JETS @ STEELERS (1:00pm ET)

I DO NOT LIKE THIS GAME AT ALL FOR BETTING. ZACH WILSON THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE JETS NUMBERS. I'M GOING TO AVOID THIS GAME COMPLETELY WITH BETTING.

BROWNS @ FALCONS (1:00pm ET)

BROWNS WR AMARI COOPER OVER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Amari Cooper has been over 100 yards receiving in back to back games. Jacoby Brissett has realized that this guy is his best weapon and has targeted him 10+ times in each of the last two games. I'm sure the Falcons know that but I think Cleveland will force the issue. 60 is a reasonable number for him to achieve especially against this lackluster Atlanta secondary.

FALCONS TE KYLE PITTS OVER 54.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Marcus Mariota and Kyle Pitts got into rhythm early in Week 3 against the Seahawks but then stalled out in the second half. Teams have to make a decision against the Falcons and decide to double Kyle Pitts or the rookie Drake London and most have chosen Pitts. I feel like this number is too low to ignore because this should be his floor for his production each week.

SEAHAWKS @ LIONS (1:00pm ET)

LIONS RB CRAIG REYNOLDS OVER 28.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)

All the attention this week has been on Jamaal Williams taking the workload of carries without D'Andre Swift in the lineup but everyone has forgotten about Craig Reynolds. Jamaal is not the type of running back that handles a full workload. He is better as the secondary option and goal line back. I wouldn't doubt if Reynolds gets the bulk of the carries in this game and Williams keeps his regular role.

LIONS WR T.J. HOCKENSON OVER 49.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Amon-Ra St. Brown will not play on Sunday against the Seahawks and those targets have got to go somewhere. My feeling is that Goff's reliable tight end will pick up the slack and get plenty of looks against this Seattle defense without Jamal Adams. He has not gotten to the 50 yard receiving mark in a game this season, but he will need to be more involved for the Lions to keep up offensively.

CHARGERS @ TEXANS (1:00pm ET)

CHARGERS WR JOSH PALMER OVER 49.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

When Keenan Allen is out of the lineup, Josh Palmer steps right into his role and takes advantage of the targets. He had six catches on nine targets last week for 99 yards receiving. This is a fantastic matchup for the Chargers against a very bland bad Texans defense.

CHARGERS RB AUSTIN EKELER OVER 41.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)

This has got to be the week that Austin Ekeler explodes against this Texans defense. Even if you take the matchup out of the equation, he has been over this receiving total in back to back games. Ekeler has 17 catches on 18 targets in the last two games. This Texans defense is allowing 410 yards per game which should give you all the confidence in the world on this play.

BEARS @ GIANTS (1:00pm ET)

GIANTS RB SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 80.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)

BEARS RB KHALIL HERBERT OVER 74.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

The Giants and Bears are two of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season. The Bears are allowing 157 yards per game on the ground while the Giants are a little bit better at 138. Saquon has been over this total in two of his three games this season. While Herbert is not the starting back, he is going to get lead back carries this week with David Montgomery out. When he took over for Montgomery last week, he had 20 carries for 157 yards and two touchdowns. I think both of these guys go off in this game because both quarterbacks kinda stink.

CARDINALS @ PANTHERS (4:05pm ET)

CARDINALS QB KYLER MURRAY OVER 235.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

CARDINALS QB KYLER MURRAY OVER 23.5 PASS COMPLETIONS (-105)

Kyler has been way over these numbers in each of the last two games. He has averaged 30 plus completions and 280 plus yards passing over the last two. The Panthers defense has been solid this season but if you look at the teams they have played, it really isn't as impressive as it looks. The best offense they've faced is the Saints and they've been mediocre to say the least. I feel like Murray lights them up on Sunday afternoon.

CARDINALS WR MARQUISE BROWN OVER 56.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)

The connection we expected when Brown was traded to the Cardinals this off-season has started to form over the last couple weeks. Brown's former quarterback at Oklahoma has targeted him 28 times over the last two games for a combined 20 catches. That receiving total just seems way too low for a guy getting this much attention from his quarterback. I'm not saying he's going to get 17 targets again this week but he could easily have 10-11.

BRONCOS @ RAIDERS (4:25pm ET)

BRONCOS WR COURTLAND SUTTON OVER 68.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

BRONCOS WR COURTLAND SUTTON OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+125)

Russell Wilson has found his favorite target and he isn't shy about targeting him early and often. He has caught 15 passes on 22 targets for more than 200 yards over the last two weeks. This has got to be the game that Russell Wilson wakes up against this Raiders defense which is allowing 267 yards through the air per game. Las Vegas doesn't have anyone that can compete with Sutton's size. I think this is the week he finally gets into the end zone for the first time on the 2022 season.

PATRIOTS @ PATRIOTS (4:25pm ET)

PATRIOTS UNDER 15.5 TEAM POINTS (-115)

Brian Hoyer starts for the Patriots in Week 4 against the Packers in Green Bay. The Packers defense has been legit this season allowing just 15 points per game. To be frank, I'd like this bet even if Mac Jones was starting because their offense has struggled. The only time they've looked good was against the Ravens defense which has been terrible this season. Hoyer will have problems moving the ball against this defense.

PATRIOTS KICKER NICK FOLK OVER 1.5 FIELD GOALS MADE (+140)

The end zone will elude the Patriots in this game but I have a feeling they'll get across the 50 but stall out a lot. Folk will be forced into the only consistent offensive weapon for this Patriots team. I'll admit that this play is a bit enticing because of the odds but I feel like the game script will lead to this one coming through.