DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 5 2022

DIEHARDS - WEEK 5 SUNDAY SLATE
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com

SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 68-74
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 2-9
 

GIANTS @ PACKERS (9:30am ET)

PACKERS QB AARON RODGERS UNDER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (+130)

While Rodgers and his offense have improved over the last few games, they are still trying to find consistency. He has thrown two touchdown passes in each of his last three games. The Giants defense has been surprisingly stout this season allowing just four total touchdown passes over their first four games of the season. The Packers just don't have that receiving threat that scares you anymore without Davante in the mix. I think the Giants keep Rodgers in check over in London.

PACKERS WR ALLEN LAZARD OVER 45.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)

We all wanted to believe before the season began that Lazard would step up and become that go to wide receiver for Aaron Rodgers with Davante out of Green Bay. All signs pointed that way before he got banged up right before the season started which got him off to a slow start. The targets, receptions, and receiving yardage have gone up in each of the last three games. I think this number is too low for his potential target share in Week 5.

CHARGERS @ BROWNS (1:00pm ET)

BROWNS RB NICK CHUBB OVER 91.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

BROWNS RB NICK CHUBB OVER 17.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-130)

It's hard to bet against Nick Chubb being everything to this Browns offense. Jacoby Brissett can't carry the team so they are putting it on his shoulders. Chubb has been over both of these props in three of his four games this season and the one he didn't, he had 17 carries for 87 yards, nearly got there. The Chargers have not been exploited on the ground but they will this week. They've only faced 81 total rush attempts which is third lowest in the league, but are allowing second most yards per carry in the league at 5.4 yards. Nick is going to have a day on Sunday.

CHARGERS RB AUSTIN EKELER OVER 37.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

The receiving yards for Austin Ekeler have been consistent throughout the season, especially the last three weeks. He's had at least four targets and four receptions in every game this season. Ekeler has had 55, 48, and 49 receiving yards over the last three games. The Browns did hold Christian McCaffrey to 24 yards but they did not target him as much as Ekeler does on a consistent basis.

STEELERS @ BILLS (1:00pm ET)

STEELERS UNDER 15.5 TEAM TOTAL POINTS (-105)

While I do like the potential of Kenny Pickett running this offense, it just isn't going to happen in Buffalo against this team. Pittsburgh is throwing this kid into the deep end and seeing if he can swim, which I respect because it's Mike Tomlin but man that's rough. There is a reason why the Bills are more than two touchdown favorites in this game.

STEELERS WR CHASE CLAYPOOL UNDER 33.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

Claypool has become the forgotten man in this offense. He has only gone over this receiving total in one game this season which was just 35 yards. In last week's game against the Jets, he had two targets for zero catches. The Bills defense is best in the league against the pass allowing 150 yards per game through the air. Pickett showed a fondness for Pickens when he came into the game last week throwing the ball his way 30 percent of the time while Claypool only received nine percent.

STEELERS TE PAT FREIERMUTH OVER 38.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

While Claypool's numbers have slowly been declining, Pat Freiermuth's numbers increased with the switch to Pickett at quarterback. Freiermuth received 30 percent of the target share when Pickett entered the game and ended with seven catches on nine targets in Week 4 against the Jets. I have to believe that this continues against the Bills in Week 5. Buffalo is tough against all positions but I believe that the young quarterback will rely on his big tight end for easy pitch and catches.

BILLS WR STEFON DIGGS OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (-105)

Buffalo is a machine on offense. The only thing that has slowed down their offense has been the rainy windy weather in Week 4 against the Ravens. We should see much better conditions this weekend in Buffalo against the Steelers. My only fear with this prop is that the Bills get up so big that they pull their starters in the fourth quarter and he ends with like four for 87 and a score. If you take out last week's game cause of the weather, he's had at least seven catches in each of the first three games. We have all seen the connection between Allen and Diggs, it's special.

FALCONS @ BUCCANEERS (1:00pm ET)

BUCCANEERS RB RACHAAD WHITE OVER 12.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

It seems the Buccaneers have finally found a role for their rookie running back. While Leonard Fournette has been used in both the running and passing game, it seems they've taken a step back from that this season. White has been worked into the mix more in the passing game catching five balls on five targets in Week 4. This total is crazy low for a game that should see the Buccaneers light it up on the scoreboard. Get in on this prop before it starts to steadily increase over the coming weeks.

BUCCANEERS WR MIKE EVANS OVER 57.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The Falcons are allowing 260 yards per game through the air. This has got to be the get right game for Tom Brady and he gets there by throwing the ball early and often to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. This yardage number is surprisingly low for a guy of Evans' talents. He has been over this receiving total in all three games he's played this season. While Evans targets may decrease this week with Chris Godwin back in the lineup but that hasn't stopped him from getting his numbers in the past.

H2H CHRIS GODWIN MORE RECEPTIONS THAN DRAKE LONDON (+100)

If Chris Godwin is playing, he will definitely have more catches than Drake London, there is like no doubt in my mind. The only fear is that Godwin somehow tweaks the injury and comes out of the game. In the last game Godwin played against the Chiefs, he had seven receptions on 10 targets. In London's last two games, he had a combined five catches. No way Godwin doesn't won this bet if he played the whole game on Sunday against the Falcons.

BEARS @ VIKINGS (1:00pm ET)

BEARS QB JUSTIN FIELDS UNDER 24.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-125)

We've been through this with the Bears offense. They obviously do not want to put the game in Justin Fields hands and they rely on the run game to move the ball. He had a season high pass attempts in Week 4 with 22 but that's still pretty weak. The Vikings are weak against the pass but it's not like anyone believes Justin Fields can exploit that. This is a pretty safe bet.

VIKINGS WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON OVER 82.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

We all know how talented Jefferson is and what he means to this Vikings offense. Minnesota had a two game brain fart when it came to getting Justin the ball but that was corrected over in London to the tune of 10 catches on 13 targets. Jefferson has had over 100 receiving yards in three of his four career games against the Bears and I expect more of the same in this one.

DOLPHINS @ JETS (1:00pm ET)

JETS WR ELIJAH MOORE OVER 42.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I really liked this bet last week but I wanted to see Zach Wilson return to action before putting my money down on this prop. These two have a connection and I'm going to exploit it while the number is still reasonable. The Dolphins' pass defense is second worst in the league in terms of total yardage allowed. The speed is off the charts and the key is getting him in space. This game has secret shootout appeal to me.

DOLPHINS RB CHASE EDMONDS UNDER 27.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)

I'm going to keep betting this until it fails me. Chase is just not being used as the primary ball carrier in this offense. He has not had more than six carries in a game since Week 1. Raheem Mostert has a previous relationship with Mike McDaniel from his days with the 49ers and there is an obvious between them. Edmonds has been relegated to pass catching and goal line work. This should be another easy winner on Sunday.

TITANS @ COMMANDERS (1:00pm ET)

TITANS QB RYAN TANNEHILL OVER 215.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

This line has been climbing throughout the week because everyone knows just how bad this Commanders' secondary has been this season. I'm actually shocked to see that nine teams in the league have allowed more passing yards but it doesn't change the fact that they've been awful. Derrick Henry has gotten back to being himself which means the play action game will be in full effect and that's where Tannehill thrives. He'll carve up this mediocre secondary.

TITANS WR ROBERT WOODS OVER 52.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

There is no Treylon Burks in this game which makes Woods the primary target for Tannehill in this Titans passing game. I just wrote about how bad this Commanders' secondary has been this season. They have given up the third most receiving yards to the wide receiver position. Just look at the games, one receiving has exploded every week against them. Week 1 was Christian Kirk, Week 2 was Amon-Ra St. Brown, Week 3 was DeVonta Smith and Week 4 was CeeDee Lamb.

LIONS @ PATRIOTS (1:00pm ET)

PATRIOTS RB RHAMONDRE STEVENSON OVER 16.5 PASSING YARDS (-110)

The second year back out of Oklahoma has established his role in this Patriots offense. He has gotten 10 plus carries and 5 receiving targets in each of the last two games. Stevenson has cleared this receiving total in each of the last two games as well. The Lions defense has been god awful and setting records for being bad. The Patriots will be starting Bailey Zappe and what better way to make him feel comfortable than dumping it off to him in the flat.

PATRIOTS RB DAMIEN HARRIS OVER 61.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

He is the lead back when it comes to carrying the ball. Harris is averaging nearly 15 carries per game and has been over this rush total in two of his last three games. The Lions defense is third worst in the league against the rush allowing 165 yards on the ground per game. Bailey Zappe will start for the Patriots and they will likely lean heavily on the run.

TEXANS @ JAGUARS (1:00pm ET)

JAGUARS RB JAMES ROBINSON OVER 62.5 RUSHING YARDS (-130)

This is one of the biggest slam dunks of the week when it comes to prop bets. Robinson had a setback against the Eagles in Week 4 with just eight carries for 29 yards. The Jags were down and had to throw the ball to get back into this game. The Texans basically give away yards to running backs allowing the second most per game in the league at 172. Prior to last week's stumble, he had gone over this prop bet in each of the first three games.

JAGUARS WR CHRISTIAN KIRK OVER 65.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Christian got paid a lot of money this off-season to be the man in Jacksonville and they are targeting him as such. Kirk has averaged nine targets a game and has been over this receiving yards total in all but last week's game against the Eagles. While the Texans are better against the pass than the run, they aren't much better allowing 240 yards per game through the air. The speedy receiver sits 10th in the league in yards after the catch and that trend should continue on Sunday.

TEXANS RB DAMEON PIERCE OVER 66.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

Miles Sanders averaged five yards a carry against this Jaguars defense which had looked pretty stout through the first three games this season. When you really look at the Jags against the run, they were able to get up on their opponents quickly which forced the team to get into more of a pass first offense. The Texans have finally decided to feature Pierce as their primary back and he's flourished over the last two weeks having a career high 131 yards on 14 carries last week against the Chargers. I don't see any reason he can't get over this pretty pedestrian rushing total.

SEAHAWKS @ SAINTS (1:00pm ET)

SAINTS RB ALVIN KAMARA OVER 26.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I'm going to take the chance once again that Alvin Kamara plays in this game. As long as Andy Dalton starts at quarterback for the Saints, I'm going to be all over his receiving yards prop. Jameis Winston refuses to dump off to his backs, while Andy Dalton will do it all day long. This is a fantastic matchup against a Seahawks defense that just allowed 45 points to the Lions and 27 in each of the two previous games. Seattle is allowing 46 yards per game through the air to the running back.

SAINTS TE ADAM TRAUTMAN OVER 9.5 RECEIVING YARDS (+100)

You are probably saying to yourself, why in the hell is he pushing Adam Trautman of all people in this game but there is a method to my madness. He missed the first two games of the season and is working himself back into the regular rotation. Adam had just one catch for nine yards in his first game and then jumped to three catches for 37 yards in his second game last week. The Seahawks allow the most yards to the tight end position close to 100 yards per game, just look at what T.J. Hockenson did against them in Week 4. We are just asking for basically one catch from Trautman to hit this prop.

49ERS @ PANTHERS (4:05pm ET)

49ERS WR DEEBO SAMUEL OVER 55.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-130)

49ERS WR DEEBO SAMUEL OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-105)

This should be another easy winner on Sunday especially while Jimmy Garoppolo is at the helm of the 49ers offense. In his last two games since taking over at quarterback for the injured Trey Lance, Deebo has had 11 catches for 188 yards. The Panthers secondary is not bad but it isn't great either. Samuel should be able to get his in this ball game. As long as Jimmy is running this offense, Deebo will once again be a top tier wide receiver in the league.

PANTHERS RB CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY UNDER 52.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

The 49ers are only allowing 3.1 yards per carry and 57 yards per game on the ground. They are terrific against the run which means McCaffrey is going to have to beat them in other ways like catching the ball out of the backfield. He has been under this rushing total in two of his four game this season. It's going to be tough sledding for the Panthers run game which puts the game on Baker Mayfield's right arm and that can never end well.

EAGLES @ CARDINALS (4:25pm ET)

CARDINALS TE ZACH ERTZ OVER 49.5 RECEIVING YARDS (+100)

I'm going to climb aboard the narrative train with this one. Zach Ertz faces his former team for the first time since getting traded and you know they are going to look to him early and often in this one. While he has only crossed this number one time this season, the targets are there for him to have a big day. Ertz has had double digit targets in two of the four games this year and I can almost guarantee it'll be a third this weekend.

CARDINALS RB JAMES CONNER UNDER 70.5 RUSH+RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The Eagles defense is legit. They have probably the best balance on defense of any team in the league, they can shut down the run and the pass. If you take out their terrible Week 1 performance against the Lions in which they allowed D'Andre Swift to run wild on them, they've been lock down against the run since that game. They faced Justin Jefferson and Darius Slay made him look pedestrian. Conner has been under this total yardage prop in three of his four games this season.

COWBOYS @ RAMS (4:25pm ET)

RAMS WR COOPER KUPP OVER 8.5 RECEPTIONS (-105)

There doesn't need to be a lot of analysis here because he's Cooper Kupp and we all know what he's doing this season. He's had 11 catches or more in three of his four games this season. Matt Stafford cannot stop targeting him and despite the defense knowing that, they still can't stop it. Just keep riding this bet until it just gets too high to take.

RAMS TE TYLER HIGBEE OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+120)

When Stafford gets tired of throwing the ball to Cooper Kupp all the time, he looks towards Tyler Higbee to everyone's surprise. Most people thought Allen Robinson would be that guy but it's Higbee and he might end up being the steal of most everyone's fantasy football drafts. He had 14 targets in the Rams Week 4 loss to the 49ers. He has been over this receptions prop in two of his last three games.

RAMS WR ALLEN ROBINSON UNDER 18.5 LONGEST RECEPTION (-120)

I think everyone's starting to think that Allen Robinson did something to Stafford's wife because there is no logical explanation as to why he's completely ignoring him. Robinson doesn't have more than six targets in any single game this season. He has just one catch in four games of over 18.5 yards and that was against the terrible Falcons defense. You have to keep betting against Robinson until Stafford figures it out which I don't see happening anytime soon.