DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 14 2022

DIEHARDS - WEEK 14 SUNDAY SLATE
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com

SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 218-231
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 5-15
 

JETS @ BILLS (1:00p ET)

JETS WR GARRETT WILSON OVER 64.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

JETS WR GARRETT WILSON OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+115)

This bet is purely about talent. I firmly believe that this kid is the next superstar big wide receiver in the league. He has been over this receiving number in four of his last five games. Wilson caught eight balls on nine targets for 92 yards in their first game just a few weeks ago. Mike White has only made this kid more of a threat because of all the targets.

VIKINGS @ LIONS (1:00p ET)

LIONS D'ANDRE SWIFT OVER 35.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

The talent is starting to shine through for Swift as he gets closer to 100 percent. While this is not a premium matchup for a running back, he has the ability to bust one loose at any time. He actually carried the ball 14 times last week which was his most since Week 1. Jamaal Williams is a nice story and does a good job on the goal line but Swift is a premiere talent. This is such a low threshold, it's hard to ignore it.

VIKINGS TE T.J. HOCKENSON OVER 51.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

T.J. makes his return to Detroit for the first time since getting traded to the Vikings after Week 7. While Hockenson has only been over this receiving prop one time in his five games with Minnesota, there is a huge narrative here. There's no way the Vikings won't try to get him the ball early and often in this game. You know Hock wants to stick it to his old team and show them they made a mistake.

EAGLES @ GIANTS (1:00p ET)

GIANTS QB DANIEL JONES OVER 19.5 PASS COMPLETIONS (-120)

This may seem like an odd bet but the Giants need to win this game and it'll have to be on the arm of Daniel Jones. Saquon Barkley is questionable which will put even more on Jones' shoulders against the conference leading Eagles. He has been over this number in three straight games. My guess is that the Eagles will get up in this game and Daboll will be forced to open up the offense. He wasn't having to throw as much early in the season because the running game was carrying them but that's not the case anymore.

EAGLES WR DEVONTA SMITH OVER 56.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The former Heisman trophy winner has been very boom or bust this season for the Eagles. You had to think that would happen with the addition of A.J. Brown taking a lot of targets away. He does have the ability to break out for a huge game every single week but they have been very sporadic. He gets a good matchup against this Giants secondary allowing 147 yards per game to the receiver position. Smith has been over this receiving total in two of his last three games.

BROWNS @ BENGALS (1:00p ET)

BROWNS QB DESHAUN WATSON UNDER 224.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

I don't know if rust was the word for Deshaun's performance last weekend in Houston. That was setup to be an easy first game back on the field after the suspension and he looked awful. All of his passes were low or in the ground and really couldn't get the ball down the field. He goes from one of the easiest matchups to one of the most difficult in the Cincinnati Bengals who handled Patrick Mahomes last weekend. The Bengals only allow 216 yards through the air each week. He has going to have his hands full in only his second game back.

BENGALS RB JOE MIXON OVER 24.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

BENGALS RB JOE MIXON OVER 88.5 RUSH + RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The Bengals get Joe Mixon back just in time for a premiere matchup against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns allow 127 yards per game on the ground. While Mixon did not have a good game against this same Browns team in their first meeting, I don't have any doubt that he won't bounce back in the second. He is also coming back from the concussion and after watching Perine play really well in his spot, Mixon will be looking to show that he's still the man in this offense. Dameon Pierce went for 95 total yards against this Cleveland team last week.

TEXANS @ COWBOYS (1:00p ET)

COWBOYS RB TONY POLLARD OVER 67.5 RUSHING YARDS (-130)

Here is the auto-bet every week on the NFL slate. You bet the over on the rushing prop for the running back on the team facing the Houston Texans. The Texans are at the bottom of the league in every defensive category when it comes to stopping the run. Pollard has proven to be the more explosive back in Dallas this season. Pollard has been over this rushing prop in six of the last eight games. Just chalk this one up as a victory.

RAVENS @ STEELERS (1:00p ET)

STEELERS RB NAJEE HARRIS OVER 14.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-105)

Najee has been noticeably better over the last six weeks of the season. I don't know if it has anything to do with Kenny Pickett taking over at quarterback but he's looked more like his rookie season. He has been over this prop in three of his last four games. I feel like this will be a tight game down to the wire with Huntley running the Ravens offense against this Steelers defense. If it is a tight game, it will keep Harris involved throughout.

STEELERS WR DIONTAE JOHNSON OVER 47.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

STEELERS WR DIONTAE JOHNSON OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-130)

We have all missed the projection from Diontae Johnson. It has been a slow burn for the former target monster. I feel like the worm is finally turning and the connection is forming between Pickett and Johnson. Diontae has hit both of these props in back to back games and the Ravens allow 181 yards per game through the air. He has also been over both of these props in each of his last two games against the Ravens.

JAGUARS @ TITANS (1:00p ET)

TITANS TE AUSTIN HOOPER OVER 20.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

This is a rinse and repeat bet because the number doesn't change and he just keeps hitting it. Hooper has been over this number in six of his last seven games. He has had at least three catches in five of those seven games. Ryan Tannehill does not have a lot of reliable targets but Hooper has proven to be one for him.

CHIEFS @ BRONCOS (4:05p ET)

BRONCOS TE GREG DULCICH OVER 42.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Russell Wilson will be without his top target Courtland Sutton but he has found a new one in Greg Dulcich. He had a bomb game against the Ravens last week with eight targets, six catches, and 85 yards. While the Chiefs are one of the better teams in the league against the tight end, he'll basically be the only game in town this weekend.

BUCCANEERS @ 49ERS (4:25p ET)

49ERS RB CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY OVER 36.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

49ERS RB CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-130)

Brock Purdy takes over as the 49ers starting quarterback and I feel like that's nothing but good news for McCaffrey. Purdy took over in last week's game pretty early when Jimmy G got hurt and he was going to CMC early and often. Christian finished the game with eight catches on 10 targets for 80 yards through the air. I don't care that the Buccaneers are the best team in the league at stopping the receiving back, this is how the 49ers will move the ball with Purdy at the helm. He touched the ball 25 times last week and I expect more of the same this weekend.

BUCCANEERS WR CHRIS GODWIN OVER 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I know that Chris missed his prop by just a couple years last week but his number being under 60 yards is just too tasty to pass up. The 49ers have a top tier defense but they can be beaten through the air allowing 167 yards per game through the air. Godwin has been over this prop number in four of his last five games.

PANTHERS @ SEAHAWKS (4:25p ET)

PANTHERS RB D'ONTA FOREMAN OVER 63.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

He has been the lead dog in this Panthers backfield since Christian McCaffrey got traded to San Francisco. If you take out the two bad games against the Ravens and Bengals tough run defenses, he's been over 100 yards rushing in four straight games. The bad run defenses, he takes advantage of which is what you find in the Seattle Seahawks. They allow 112 yards per game on the ground to their opponents and Sam Darnold will have no problem giving the rock to Foreman throughout this game.

SEAHAWKS TE NOAH FANT OVER 28.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

It took awhile but Noah Fant is officially a thing in Seattle now. The veteran tight end has been easily over this prop number in four straight games catching at least three balls in each of them. The Panthers are middle of the road against the tight end spot allowing 43 yards per game. I'm not saying he's going to light the world on fire but this is definitely a reasonable number to achieve.