DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 6 2022

DIEHARDS - WEEK 6 THURSDAY SLATE
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com

SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 87-97
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 2-10
 

BUCCANEERS @ STEELERS (1:00pm ET)

STEELERS QB KENNY PICKETT OVER 22.5 PASS COMPLETIONS (+100)

The rookie has shown an early gunslinger mentality and we like that. In a beatdown at the hands of the Buffalo Bills last week, he threw the ball 52 times completing 34 of them. I see a similar scenario on Sunday where the Steelers get down to Tampa Bay and he tries to throw them back into it. He has shown a love for throwing the ball to fellow rookie George Pickens.

STEELERS WR GEORGE PICKENS OVER 46.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

The Steelers are rebuilding and Pickens seems to be a big part of that plan. Kenny Pickett has shown to have eyes for him. Pickens saw 30 percent of the target share when Kenny entered the game against the Jets. Pickens has seen 16 targets over the last two games for 185 yards on 12 catches. You should take advantage of this chemistry between rookies and make some money.

BUCCANEERS RB RACHAAD WHITE OVER 13.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I spoke about him last week and the prop hit. The Buccaneers have found a role for him as Leonard Fournette's primary backup and passing down back. The former Sun Devil has eight catches on nine targets over the last two games. He has been easily over this receiving total in both of those games as well. The other reason I like this prop is the Buccaneers will likely get up big and he'll get more touches late in the game.

49ERS @ FALCONS (1:00pm ET)

49ERS WR BRANDON AIYUK OVER 49.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The Falcons allow the 7th most receiving yards to the wide receiver position but that's not because of A.J. Terrell. Atlanta's top cornerback has been really good but his running mates have been pretty awful. That leads me to believe that Deebo Samuel will be locked down by Terrell which leaves Aiyuk available to pick up all the leftovers. He hit this prop last week against Carolina.

FALCONS UNDER 19.5 TOTAL POINTS SCORED (+105)

The 49ers defense is the best unit in the NFL in most every category. They are only allowing 12.2 points per game (1st in the league), 889 yards per game through the air (3rd best in the league), and 357 yards per game on the ground (1st in the league). The Falcons despite being at home will struggle to score against this San Francisco defense.

RAVENS @ GIANTS (1:00pm ET)

RAVENS QB LAMAR JACKSON OVER 60.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

RAVENS QB LAMAR JACKSON UNDER 213.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

The Ravens will have to get this win on the ground against a tough Giants' defense. New York's defense does struggle against the run ranking bottom 10 in the league allowing five yards a carry. They are much better against the pass and the Ravens do not beat you through the air especially with Rashod Bateman out once again. Jackson has been under this passing total in three of their five games this season and he's been over this rushing total in three of their five games as well. I think Lamar beats them with his legs and not with his arm on Sunday.

RAVENS WR DEVIN DUVERNAY OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (+115)

Rashod Bateman misses his second straight game and that means Duvernay steps into the starting wide receiver spot. They use this kid all over the field and I love it. He is what you call a "playmaker" just get the ball into his hands. Devin has been over this prop in back to back games. While I know the Giants defense is solid against the pass, they will find way to get him the ball in various ways.

JETS @ PACKERS (1:00pm ET)

PACKERS UNDER 26.5 TOTAL POINTS SCORED (+100)

I know this may seem crazy for the Jets but their defense has improved with the addition of Sauce Gardner. The real reason I like this bet is because of the Packers offense. Rodgers and company are just not the same without Davante as their primary weapon. They are averaging less than 20 points a game on the season. Green Bay has only covered this twice and both times it was only 27 points, barely there. The Jets have kept their last three opponents to an average of 21 points.

JETS BREECE HALL OVER 12.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-135)

JETS BREECE HALL OVER 83.5 RUSH + RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

This rookie has taken over the lead back duties in this Jets offense. Breece has had 17 or more carries in back to back games and this seems to be the new norm. He has been over this total yards number in three of the Jets five games this season. The former Iowa State Cyclone had his coming out party against the Dolphins with nearly 200 total yards and a touchdown.

JETS GARRETT WILSON UNDER 45.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The Jets offense has changed since Zach Wilson returned from injury. They have focused more on the running game and not put the game in the hands of their second year quarterback. The targets were cut in half in Zach Wilson's first start and dropped again in his second start. I really love the upside of Garrett Wilson and he's shown flashes but that was with Joe Flacco at the helm.

PATRIOTS @ BROWNS (1:00pm ET)

PATRIOTS WR JAKOBI MEYERS OVER 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

It doesn't matter who is throwing the ball for the Patriots, they all know that Jakobi Meyers is their most reliable pass catcher. In the last two games, he has 16 catches on 21 targets for over 200 yards receiving. While Cleveland is tough against the pass with those corners, he will be force-fed the ball no matter who is running the offense.

BROWNS WR AMARI COOPER OVER 52.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I am still baffled at what happened two weeks ago in Atlanta when Cooper was only targeted four times for one catch. A.J. Terrell is good but he had faced other good corners and wasn't shut down like that. In three of his last four games, Cooper has had double digit targets for seven or more catches in each of them. We know that Belichick likes to take away the team's best offensive weapon and that would be Nick Chubb, so I'd expect Cooper to be heavily targeted once again.

VIKINGS @ DOLPHINS (1:00pm ET)

DOLPHINS RB RAHEEM MOSTERT OVER 13.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-120)

This is another one that I'm going to keep riding while the number is still under 15. Raheem has become the clear cut featured back in this offense. Chase Edmonds does not even have props featured anymore because he just doesn't touch the ball anymore. Mostert had 15 carries for 69 two weeks ago and then 18 carries for 113. The Vikings are middle of the pack when it comes to rushing yards allowed but with a rookie like Skylar Thompson playing quarterback, they are going to lean on the run.

VIKINGS WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON OVER ALT 100+ RECEIVING YARDS (+125)

VIKINGS WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON OVER 26.5 LONGEST RECEPTION (-120)

Thank god the Vikings finally realized they need to target Justin Jefferson to win football games. After back to back stinkers, the all-pro wide out has had back to back monster outputs totaling over 300 receiving yards. Jefferson has already had catches of over 30 yards in each of the last two games. The Dolphins allow 170 yards per game to the wide receiver position and nearly 15 yards per catch. How can you not feel good about betting on arguably the top wide receiver in the game?

BENGALS @ SAINTS (1:00pm ET)

SAINTS RB ALVIN KAMARA OVER 29.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

As long as Andy Dalton is the starting quarterback for the Saints, this bet is just rinse and repeat. Jameis does not know how to check it down to the running back but Dalton does. Kamara caught all six of his targets for 91 yards against the Seahawks. It should be more of the same on Sunday.

SAINTS WR TRE'QUAN SMITH UNDER 31.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Andy Dalton has just not been targeting much since taking over at starter. Smith only had two targets in his first start and just four in his second start. If you combine his total yards over the two games with Andy Dalton it doesn't cover this receiving prop.

BENGALS TE HAYDEN HURST UNDER 36.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

A lot of people are jumping on the Hurst bandwagon after last week's performance because the tight end position has been so awful. People need to dig deeper into the numbers to see that the consistency is just not there. He had a good week against a pretty bad Baltimore defense. In his three previous games, he didn't cover this receiving prop.

JAGUARS @ COLTS (1:00pm ET)

COLTS RB DEON JACKSON OVER 42.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

This number is just entirely too low for the starting running back in a NFL football game. There is no Jonathan Taylor or Nyheim Hines in this game, he is the only show in town. The Jaguars allowed Miles Sanders rush for 134 yards two weeks ago and Dameon Pierce after a slow start got to 99 rushing yards last week. Deon ran for 63 yards on 12 carries against the Broncos. He has shown some giddy up and go in his short time and I believe he'll turn some heads on Sunday.

JAGUARS TE EVAN ENGRAM OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)

Engram has been inconsistent with the catches but pretty consistent with the targets. He had 10 targets which he caught six for 60 yards in their loss to the Texans. The Colts are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to covering the tight end position. He had seven catches for 46 yards on eight targets in Week 2 against this same Colts team.

JAGUARS RB JAMES ROBINSON OVER 39.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

While the Colts are solid against the run, this is another number that is just entirely too low. I understand he's had two bad games in a row but this team knows they need to get back to the running game. When the Jaguars beat this same Colts team in Week 2, James carried the ball 23 times for 64 yards. You can avoid this one if you want too but it's just too tasty of a number for me to pass up.

PANTHERS @ RAMS (4:05pm ET)

RAMS WR ALLEN ROBINSON UNDER 33.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-130)

Matthew Stafford might have the worst offensive line in the league in from of him. He has zero time to get through his progressions so most every time he fires the ball off to Cooper Kupp or Tyler Higbee. My problem is on the rare plays when he does have the time, Stafford still is not looking at Allen Robinson. He hasn't had more than six targets in a game or more than four catches. Allen has been under this receiving prop in four of the five games this season.

PANTHERS DE BRIAN BURNS OVER 0.75 SACKS (+160)

These odds are crazy to me. Burns is one of the best young pass rushers in the game and he has to be licking his chops to get at this terrible Rams offensive line. They have allowed a league leading 21 sacks through just five games. Burns has collected four sacks in his four games played this season. He has finished each of the last two seasons with nine sacks, I have a good feeling he'll get to double digits this season and this game will go a long way towards getting there.

CARDINALS @ SEAHAWKS (4:25pm ET)

CARDINALS RB ENO BENJAMIN OVER 92.5 RUSH + RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

CARDINALS RB ENO BENJAMIN OVER 60.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

Benjamin gets his chance to be the guy in Arizona. He's got no one really to compete with for touches and he could not have a better matchup. The Seahawks allow the season most rushing yards and third most receiving yards to the running back position. Seattle has allowed three straight 100 yard rushers (Cordarrelle Patterson, Jamaal Williams, and Alvin Kamara). He should be used all over the field in this game against the Seahawks.

CARDINALS WR MARQUISE BROWN OVER 70.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I think everyone that watches the NFL know that Cooper Kupp is the most targeted wide receiver in the league but can you guess who is number two? It would be Marquise "Hollywood" Brown tied with Justin Jefferson for second in the league with 55. When you look over his game log, he just missed this number in Week 2, but he's easily cleared this in three straight games. The Seahawks struggle to defend the tight end more than the wide receiver but the amount of volume is hard to ignore.

CARDINALS TE ZACH ERTZ OVER 48.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

While this prop bet number does not seem high, believe it or not Ertz has only gone over this number one time in Week 2 against the Raiders. This might be my number one prop of the week because everything lines up for this to hit. The Seahawks allow on average seven catches for 87 receiving yards per game to the tight end position. Everyone has to remember T.J. Hockenson blowing up two weeks ago against them and then allowed a touchdown to the little used Adam Trautman last week. Just all over this one.

BILLS @ CHIEFS (4:25pm ET)

BILLS RB DEVIN SINGLETARY OVER 65.5 RUSH + RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

This seems like an odd guy to target for props in this game but there is a method to my madness. When the Bills blow a team out, he does not go over this prop but in tight games, he does go over. It seems that they like to use him in high leverage situations. When the game is in hand, they like to work Zach Moss and rookie James Cook into the mix. I don't see this game being a blow out in either direction, so he should see the bulk of the work.

CHIEFS RB CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE OVER 19.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)

We hit this bet last week and I'm going back to the well again. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been over this prop bet in four of his five games this season. The Bills allow five catches for 30 yards per game on the season which will get the job done. When Von Miller is chasing down Patrick Mahomes, CEH will make for a great check down option.

CHIEFS TE TRAVIS KELCE OVER 79.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

CHIEFS TE TRAVIS KELCE OVER 6.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)

In that classic AFC Divisional round game between these two teams, Travis had eight catches for 96 receiving yards. Kelce has had back to back games of seven or more catches. Last week was a fluke on the yardage being only 25 because all he caught were short touchdowns. This is a huge matchup and I believe that Mahomes will go to his most trusted weapon early and often.