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DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 7 2022
DIEHARDS - WEEK 7 SUNDAY SLATE
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com
SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 111-115
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 2-10
GIANTS @ JAGUARS (1:00p ET)
JAGUARS UNDER 23.5 TEAM TOTAL POINTS (-115)
The Giants defense has played terrific football this season. They are allowing just 18 points per game on the season. The Jaguars have been better on offense as a whole but have come back down to earth a bit. Over Jacksonville's last three games, they are averaging 18 points and were held to just six points against the Texans of all teams. I think this game ends like 24-13 in the end.
GIANTS WR WAN'DALE ROBINSON OVER 31.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)
I may be jumping the gun on this kid a bit but he's got something. They drafted this kid to be everything that Kadarius Toney is not. Daboll and company drafted this kid, not Toney and that's why Robinson is getting the looks. In his first game back after injury, he had three catches on four targets for 37 yards and a really nice touchdown. They are finding way to get him the ball in open space and make things happen.
LIONS @ COWBOYS (1:00p ET)
COWBOYS RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT OVER 65.5 RUSHING YARDS (-125)
On most every other week on the Cowboys schedule, I want nothing to do with Ezekiel Elliot. This week is just too hard to ignore. The Lions have played one less game than everyone else in the league and still have given up the 10th most rushing yards. They allow 5.5 yards per carry. Believe it or not, Elliott has been over this rushing total in three of his last four games. This seems way too easy.
COWBOYS QB DAK PRESCOTT UNDER 259.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
This will be Dak's first game back from his injury. While this is a premium matchup for the Cowboys and their passing game against the Lions, I just don't think Dallas is going to go balls to the wall through the air. I just spoke about how bad the Lions have been against the run, I feel like McCarthy is going to take it easy on Dak and let Zeke and Pollard eat in this game.
BUCCANEERS @ PANTHERS (1:00p ET)
BUCCANEERS WR CHRIS GODWIN OVER 62.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
There is no one that Tom Brady trusts more than Chris Godwin. When Godwin is fully healthy, Tom targets him early and often. In the Bucs Week 6 loss to the Steelers, Godwin got 12 targets and caught six balls for 95 yards. The Panthers allow 163 yards through the air per game which is 12th worst in the NFL.
PACKERS @ COMMANDERS (1:00p ET)
COMMANDERS QB TAYLOR HEINICKE OVER 14.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
Taylor Heinicke takes over for Carson Wentz this week against the Packers. I think most everyone expected this to happen at some point this season whether it was for injury or performance issues. I am a Commanders' fan and I respect him as a competitor. Heinicke played against this same Packers team in Green Bay last season and ran for nearly 100 yards. If you look at the Packers, they've been good against rushing quarterbacks but the only running quarterback they've played is Justin Fields. The rest of the teams they've played are traditional statues in the pocket.
COMMANDERS RB BRIAN ROBINSON OVER 48.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
COMMANDERS RB BRIAN ROBINSON OVER 12.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-110)
It is clear that the Commanders like what Brian Robinson brings to the backfield. In just his second game back from being shot, he carried the ball 17 times against the Bears for 60 yards. I have no doubts that this will be the game plan in his third game especially against this Packers defense which allows 119 yards per game on the ground which is fourth worst in the league.
PACKERS WR ROMEO DOUBS OVER 48.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
I think most everyone expects Allen Lazard to have the blow up game against this Commanders secondary but I feel a Doubs break out coming. He had nine targets in the Packers Week 6 loss to the Jets. The Commanders secondary allows 185 yards per game to the wide receiver position and some of the biggest single game performances of the season. I will admit that this is more of a gut feeling.
FALCONS @ BENGALS (1:00p ET)
FALCONS RB CALEB HUNTLEY OVER 37.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
This dude got 17 carries for 59 yards against a tough 49ers defense. He got more carries than Tyler Allgeier in this game. The 49ers had the second best defense against the run, this week they get the Bengals who are eighth best. It's pretty clear, Atlanta does not want to put the game on Mariota's throwing arm. In his last four games, he has thrown the ball 20, 19, 25, and 14 times. The Falcons want to move the ball on the ground and I think they will against the Bengals.
BENGALS WR TEE HIGGINS OVER 73.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
This is a Tee Higgins week, I can feel it in my bones. We saw Ja'Marr blow up in his hometown of New Orleans in Week 6 and with all the attention going to Chase, it'll be all about Higgins in Week 7. The Falcons allow 179 yards per game through the air which is 7th worst in the league. AJ Terrell will likely be on Chase throughout the game which frees up Higgins. The Bengals offense has finally gotten its rhythm back after a slow start.
BROWNS @ RAVENS (1:00p ET)
BROWNS RB NICK CHUBB OVER 70.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Chubb had his streak of three straight 100 yard rushing games snapped in the Browns Week 6 loss to the Patriots. We all knew that was coming, Belichick was going to do whatever he could to stop Chubb and make Jacoby Brissett beat him. The Ravens defense started this season terrible but has looked better in recent weeks especially against the run. They allow just 84 rushing yards per game on the ground. I believe in the Nick Chubb talent and that they are going to continue to feed him the rock throughout this game. Over the course of his career against the Ravens, he's averaged 4.6 yards per carry and I think he cracks the 70 yards mark.
BROWNS TE DAVID NJOKU OVER 39.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
This might be my favorite bet on the board this weekend. The books have not caught up to his usage in this Browns offense. He has not had less than 6 targets in a game since Week 2 and has been way clear of this receiving prop in four straight games. Brissett trusts him and has become his second favorite target after Amari Cooper. Take advantage of this before Deshaun Watson comes back and ruins our flow.
RAVENS TE MARK ANDREWS OVER 68.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
The fact that this prop is under 70 yards is just embarrassing for DraftKings. Andrews really has only had one dud game this season and that was in Week 4 against the Bills in a terrible rain storm. If you take that game out, he's had at least 10 targets and nearly 90 yards receiving in his last four games. In his last game against the Browns at the end of last season, he had 11 catches on 11 targets for 115 yards and a score.
COLTS @ TITANS (1:00p ET)
TITANS RB DERRICK HENRY OVER 88.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
It is safe to say that Derrick Henry has owned the Colts throughout his career. In 13 games, he's averaged 89.2 rushing yards and has crossed the 100 yards mark in five of his last six against Indianapolis. The Colts allow 98 yards per game on the ground which is 12 worst in the NFL. The Titans have gotten back to their bread and butter over the last two games, running the ball to set up play action. Henry has cleared 100 yards in back to back games coming into this game.
COLTS WR ALEC PIERCE OVER 44.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
This number has not gotten priced up as much as I thought it would have by now. I'm very happy that the number is still under 50. Alec has cleared this number in four straight starts. He's had 16 targets in just the last two games. The Titans, despite playing one less game, are still ranked second worst in the league in terms of yardage allowed to the wide receiver position.
TITANS WR ROBERT WOODS UNDER 51.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
We should not see this high of a number for Robert Woods. I do not care that the Titans are coming off of a bye week, that suddenly isn't going to make Woods a younger faster wide receiver. He has cleared this receiving prop just one time in five games this season. In fact, he has only cleared 40 receiving yards, one time. Indianapolis is tops in the league when it comes to least number of receiving yards allowed to the wide receiver position on the season.
JETS @ BRONCOS (4:05p ET)
BRONCOS BRETT RYPIEN OVER 194.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
The nephew of Super Bowl MVP Mark Rypien gets his second career start for the Broncos and it's against the exact same team. The one thing I'll say, the Broncos offense can't be much worse than he has been. Brett has better weapons around him especially in the passing game than he did last season when he started against this Jets team. He went 19/31 for 242 yards and two touchdowns, (also three INTS) if the Broncos could get that out of him tomorrow, they'd take it. I think he clears the 200 yard mark but no question there will be some bumps in the road along the way. The youngster can sling it, just a matter of how many of those tosses go to his teammates and not the opponents.
JETS WR GARRETT WILSON UNDER 37.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
The Broncos defense is good, it's a crying shame that their offense isn't good enough to back them up. Their cornerbacks are legit and can shut down a team's top option and with no Elijah Moore, Wilson becomes their primary guy next to veteran Corey Davis. The other problem is, Zach Wilson has forgotten he has wide receivers at all. The Jets first round pick has had his numbers decrease in each of his last three weeks. He had just one catch for eight yards in Week 6. This is a power running team now with Breece Hall at the helm.
RAIDERS @ TEXANS (4:05p ET)
RAIDERS RB JOSH JACOBS OVER 106.5 RUSH & RECEIVE YARDS (-115)
It is amazing what a player can do when they are utilized to maximum potential. Jacobs had been looked at as a disappointment since coming out of college, so much so the Raiders did not pick up his fifth year option. It almost seemed like Las Vegas was going to let him walk right out of town at the end of this season. He has now become the main source of their offense over the two weeks. Jacobs touched the ball 33 times in Week 5 for a total of 175 yards and 26 times in Week 6 for a total of 193 yards. The Texans are the worst rush defense in the NFL at 133 yards per game. He will be the chalkiest of all chalk plays in DFS this weekend.
TEXANS WR NICO COLLINS 42.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Defenses are keying in on the connection between Davis Mills and Brandin Cooks. They are throwing bracket coverage over the top of Cooks to keep him contained but it has opened things up for Nico to emerge in this offense. He has seen relatively consistent targets and has been over this receiving yards prop in three of his last four games (the one he missed was by 2 yards). The Raiders allow the 10th most receiving yards to the wide receiver position at 171 per game.
CHIEFS @ 49ERS (4:25p ET)
CHIEFS QB PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 283.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
This game could be a sneaky shoot out. The 49ers defense is good but they are really beat up and we've seen the Chiefs defense get exposed. Mahomes will be looking to show out and dominate this game against a top team in the NFC. Also, the Chiefs are coming off of an emotional home loss to the Bills. That gives Patrick all the motivation he needs to come out and put up a special Mahomes performance. This may be a bit of a gut call but if the Falcons can beat this defense, so can Kansas City.
49ERS WR BRANDON AIYUK OVER 55.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Aiyuk saw 11 targets in the 49ers Week 6 loss to the Falcons in Atlanta. He has been over this receiving total in back to back games heading into Week 7. The Chiefs secondary has been exposed a bit over the last few weeks and can be beat especially deep. They are allowing ninth most receiving yards at 178 yards per game. A lot of attention has to be paid to Deebo and now Christian McCaffrey, Aiyuk will see a lot of single coverage.
SEAHAWKS @ CHARGERS (4:25p ET)
SEAHAWKS RB KENNETH WALKER OVER 70.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Every single week, you should go to the team that the Chargers and Texans are playing and take the over on the running back rushing yard prop. These two teams will be gold mines all season. If you look at the overall season long numbers, the Chargers are just eighth worst against the rush, but they are slowly creeping lower and lower on that list. Since taking over the full time role from injured Rashaad Penny, Walker has done nothing but impress us. He has rushed the ball 28 times for 185 yards and two touchdowns over the last two games. This should be a huge week for him.
PROPS AREN'T LISTED FOR MIKE WILLIAMS