DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 3 2023

All Props Based off DraftKings Odds

SINGLE PROP 2023 REGULAR SEASON RECORD:
WEEK 3: 2-2
OVERALL: 35-43
 

COLTS @ RAVENS (1:00p)

COLTS WR MICHAEL PITTMAN JR OVER 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

COLTS WR MICHAEL PITTMAN JR OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (-105)

You can't hold a good receiver down. Despite the changes at quarterback Pittman has garnered at least 11 targets in each of the first two games this season. He has caught 8 passes in both games. Minshew will get the start in Week 3 and if anything, it actually may help his value this weekend. Baltimore is middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the pass this season at 206 per game.

RAVENS WR ZAY FLOWERS OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (+105)

I know Zay's targets dropped from 10 to 5 from game 1 to game 2 but this weekend he doesn't have Odell Beckham Jr to compete with for targets. The top target in this offense is still Mark Andrews but Zay has become his go-to back up all around the field. The Colts allow the 4th most receiving yards on the season at 287 per game. The fact that this is plus odds, makes it even better.

BILLS @ COMMANDERS (1:00p)

BILLS RB JAMES COOK OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS (-135)

This number is entirely too low and we need to take advantage. He has had at least 4 catches in each of the first two games this season. The Commanders allowed James Conner to catch 5 passes in week 1 and the combination of Samaje Perine and Javonte Williams caught 5 passes in week 2. Jump all over this line.

BILLS WR STEFON DIGGS ALT 75+ RECEIVING YARDS (-110)

I am going back to the well with this one because I fully believe he will wreck this Commanders secondary. Diggs had 10 catches for over 100 yards in week 1 but only had 7 for 66. I am a Washington fan and I know the weakness of this defense is the back end, they are covered up a lot by the front 4. I think rookie Forbes gets taken to school by Diggs, this will be his first real true test.

BRONCOS @ DOLPHINS (1:00p)

BRONCOS RB JAVONTE WILLIAMS OVER 13.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)

Javonte has been a disappointment thus far in production, but he is getting the looks and touches. I personally think he's still working his way back into playing shape after tearing the ACL last year. He has had 9 targets in the first two games with 6 receptions. The Dolphins have allowed at least 3 receptions in each of their first two games to the running back spot.

DOLPHINS RB RAHEEM MOSTERT OVER 61.5 RECEPTIONS (-120)

The Broncos allowed 122 yards on the ground to the Commanders in Week 2. Brian Robinson pounded them for 87 yards at 4.8 per carry. While Mostert disappointed in week 1 against the Chargers, he bounced back in a big way last week against the Patriots for 121 yards at 6.7 per carry. I believe he has a big day on Sunday.

TEXANS @ JAGUARS (1:00p)

JAGUARS WR CALVIN RIDLEY OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (-115)

JAGUARS WR CALVIN RIDLEY OVER 69.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Basically the entire Houston Texans secondary is injured and out of this game on Sunday. Ridley is getting a ton of looks from Trevor Lawrence, 19 targets over the first two games. I know he only had 2 catches in week 2, but this is a perfect spot at home to get right against a banged up secondary.

TEXANS WR ROBERT WOODS OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (-115)

TEXANS WR ROBERT WOODS OVER 35.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I'm going to keep betting on Woods because he keeps paying off for me. Just like we thought, Woods has been that reliable veteran target for rookie C.J. Stroud to the tune of 12 catches on 19 targets through 2 games this season. He has had at least 57 yards receiving in each of the games as well. Why go away from these props as long as the numbers don't move up at all?

FALCONS @ LIONS (1:00p)

FALCONS RB BIJAN ROBINSON OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (+100)

FALCONS RB BIJAN ROBINSON OVER 23.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

Robinson has had at least 5 targets in each of the first two games this season, it's obvious they want to get him at least 20 touches every game. Bijan has 75 receiving yards thus far. He's their best offensive weapon and they are trying to find creative ways to use him. The Seahawks running backs combined for over this receiving prop in week 2. He is more talented than any running back the Lions faced this season.

CHARGERS @ VIKINGS (1:00p)

VIKINGS TE T.J. HOCKENSON OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+110)

As much as I love Justin Jefferson, his props are just outrageous all the time, so I'm always looking to T.J. Hockenson because they are much more reasonable. He has had 9 and 8 targets in his 2 games and has caught 7 and 8. T.J. also has had a nice long break as well since he hasn't played since the 14th. The Chargers have allowed 8 catches to tight ends through two games but they haven't faced someone as prolific as Hockenson yet this season.

TITANS @ BROWNS (1:00p)

BROWNS QB DESHAUN WATSON OVER 19 FANTASY POINTS (-110)

BROWNS QB DESHAUN WATSON OVER 1.5 PASSING TDs (+130)

BROWNS WR AMARI COOPER OVER 57.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-130)

Deshaun Watson is going to go off against this Titans defense. He has to step up with no Nick Chubb in this offense. You don't beat Tennessee on the ground, you beat them through the air. That starts with getting the ball early and often to his best weapon, Amari Cooper. I love these two to combine for a huge afternoon to stomp all over this Titans squad. Tennessee keeps winning games with smoke and mirrors, but they face a real defense.

PATRIOTS @ JETS (1:00p)

I DO NOT LIKE ANYTHING IN THIS GAME, I AM PERSONALLY AVOIDING BETTING THIS ONE. I REALLY DON'T WANT TO FORCE SOMETHING.

SAINTS @ PACKERS (1:00p)

SAINTS WR CHRIS OLAVE OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+124)

As long as Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are healthy, this will be a tough offense to stop. Olave has been the go-to guy especially for the deeper routes. He has been targeted 21 times and caught 14 of them through the first two games this season. Olave has been over this prop in both games. The Packers secondary is legit but I believe he'll get there because Thomas is on the field to help take attention away.

PANTHERS @ SEAHAWKS (4:05p)

SEAHAWKS RB KENNETH WALKER OVER 12.75 FANTASY POINTS (-110)

I went with the fantasy points because I'm not sure on the yardage for Walker but I believe he gets in the end zone once, maybe twice in this one. Walker got 17 carries in Week 2 and I only see that continuing this weekend. The Panthers allow the 3rd most fantasy points to the running back position on the season.

COWBOYS @ CARDINALS (4:25p)

COWBOYS RB TONY POLLARD ALT 100+ RUSH + RECEIVING YARDS (+100)

I believe Tony Pollard will light up this Cardinals defense on Sunday. He touched the ball 32 times (25 carries and 7 receptions) in Dallas' win over the Jets in week 2 which is why I think he'll do something similar in week 3 against Arizona. Pollard was able to move the ball with relative ease against a much tougher Jets defense, he should have no problem against the Cardinals.

COWBOYS WR CEEDEE LAMB ALT 75+ RECEIVING YARDS (-105)

He had 11 catches for 143 yards on 13 targets against a very talented Jets secondary in their week 2 victory. Lamb even had 77 yards on just 4 catches in the Cowboys week 1 win. He is going to have a special year in this offense as long as he and Dak can stay healthy. This system under new OC Brian Schottenheimer is going to feed him the rock all over the field. I'd even be willing to bump this up to the 100+ at +245 as well.

BEARS @ CHIEFS (4:25p)

BEARS QB JUSTIN FIELDS OVER 18 FANTASY POINTS (-110)After the comments from Fields mid-week about the coaching and all the drama going on with the defensive coordinator this week, they have to just let this kid loose in a game they are destined to lose and lose badly. They need to take the handcuffs off and let him fly around the field and do his thing, or they just can't be successful. Fields has to hit 20 fantasy points in this matchup, or they may start calling for him to be benched in favor of Nate Peterman.

CHIEFS WR KADARIUS TONEY OVER 28.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

CHIEFS WR KADARIUS TONEY OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS (-135)

After a crazy disappointing week 1, he had a solid bounce back catching all 5 of his targets for 35 yards in the Chiefs win over the Jaguars. It should be more of the same in week 3 against a really poor Bears secondary that will be even worse without their starting safety Eddie Jackson. The hope is that he earned Mahomes trust back with his perfect catching performance last week.