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DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 1 2023
TEXANS @ RAVENS (1:00p)
TEXANS WR ROBERT WOODS OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
Woods was one of my favorite under targets each week during the 2022 season in Tennessee but every changes in Houston. He is the only veteran wideout for rookie C.J. Stroud to target in this offense. Someone has to catch balls and I think the bulk will go to him and Dalton Schultz. This is a pretty easy number to hit.
TEXANS TE DALTON SCHULTZ OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (+105)
I just spoke about how I think Woods and Schultz will be the primary pass catching options for rookie C.J. Stroud. Bobby Slowik left San Francisco with DeMeco Ryans to be his offensive coordinator. He will run a similar offense to what the 49ers ran which means Schultz will play the George Kittle role. While he isn't as dynamic of a playmaker, he will have a significant role in this offense.
TEXANS @ RAVENS (1:00p)
COMMANDERS QB SAM HOWELL OVER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (+135)
Take this with a grain of salt because I am a Commanders fan but I really like what I've seen from Sam Howell. He is a gunslinger and fun to watch. The kid will make mistakes but those will be typical growing pains of a rookie. In 2019 at UNC, he threw at least 2 touchdowns in every one of his 13 games that season. The Cardinals allowed the 2nd most passing touchdowns in 2022 and they lost J.J. Watt to retirement and traded their best linebacker.
CARDINALS RB JAMES CONNER OVER 17.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
Arizona will have Josh Dobbs at quarterback on Sunday. It almost seems like the Cardinals are tanking for Caleb Williams. This bet is all about game script. I think the Commanders get up in this game and there will be a lot of dump offs to James Conner late in this ball game trying to move down the field fast. Conner actually went over this receiving number in each of his last 5 games of 2022.
BENGALS @ BROWNS (1:00p)
BENGALS RB JOE MIXON OVER 59.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Joe Mixon has owned the Browns in his career. In his 10 career games against Cleveland, he is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 84.1 yards per game. The Browns gave up the 8th most total rushing yards in the league which worked out to 135 yards per game on the ground. He should get his typical allotment of carries in this one.
BROWNS RB NICK CHUBB OVER 13.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
You don't think of Nick Chubb as a pass catcher but he caught nearly 30 balls last season. He went over this receiving yard total in 8 games in 2022 and I only see that going up this season with Kareem Hunt out of Cleveland. Jerome Ford will not demand the touches that Hunt did. Everything will begin and end with Chubb in this backfield.
BUCCANEERS @ VIKINGS (1:00p)
VIKINGS RB ALEXANDER MATTISON OVER 62.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Mattison gets the chance to be the man in Minnesota this season. Dalvin Cook is in New York now which means Alexander takes over the lead back role. I think everyone was surprised to see them not bring in anyone else but we will see Ty Chandler play the Mattison role this season. The Bucs were middle of the road against the run last season allowing 120 yards per game on the ground. Whenever he got a chance to fill in for Dalvin as lead back, he performed well.
VIKINGS WR K.J. OSBORN OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Everyone just completely forgot that Osborn even existed when the Vikings drafted Jordan Addison. Yes, he is a good young receiver but there's no way he jumps right into that number two role opposite Justin Jefferson. Cousins already has a good connection with Osborn and he'll play a very lucrative slot position in this offense. I love this number, it's so low. He went over this number in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games in 2022.
BUCCANEERS CHRIS GODWIN OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+114)
While I do not believe in the quarterback play of Baker Mayfield, I do believe he is capable of hitting Godwin in that short intermediate zone that Godwin lives in. I know Tom Brady was throwing him the ball but Chris because at least 6 balls in 13 of his last 14 games last season. He is healthy and should be a safety net for Mayfield.
49ERS @ STEELERS (1:00p)
STEELERS RB NAJEE HARRIS OVER 13.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-105) STEELERS RB NAJEE HARRIS OVER 48.5 RUSHING YARDS (-125)
These numbers are almost embarrassing and you should take full advantage. This hype and love for Jaylen Warren has gotten out of control. He is a perfect change of pace back but the thought that he is going to eat into Najee's workload is just silly. Najee went over both of these numbers in 5 of his last 6 games of 2022. I'd even be willing to parlay these two together to make the pay out even better.
49ERS RB ELIJAH MITCHELL OVER 24.5 RUSHING YARDS (-130)
When Elijah Mitchell has been healthy, he has been productive even when Christian McCaffrey arrived in the Bay Area. This number is way too low, he went over it in all 5 games he played last season. He averaged 4.94 or more in each of those games. The guy is a perfect fit in this one cut and go running system.
TITANS @ SAINTS (1:00p)
SAINTS QB DEREK CARR OVER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (+110)
I am a believer in Derek Carr, I was personally hoping that the Commanders would have brought him in but I like his landing spot in New Orleans. He has a lot of weapons at his disposal especially if Michael Thomas can stay healthy for even half the season. He also gets to play his first game in the Superdome which you know will be hyped. This Titans defense allowed the 2nd most passing touchdowns last year. I love him as a GPP quarterback in Week 1.
PANTHERS @ FALCONS (1:00p)
FALCONS QB DESMOND RIDDER UNDER 198.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
Desmond was given the gift of a bell cow running back this off-season. Bijan Robinson will be the focal point of this offense which makes Ridder just the facilitator going forward. In his 4 games as a starter to end last season, he went over 200 yards just twice and those were barely over. I doubt Ridder comes close to throwing it 30 times in this one.
FALCONS RB BIJAN ROBINSON OVER 88.5 RUSH + RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
As I just said, Bijan Robinson will be the focal point of this offense. He will be the be all, end all. There is no way he doesn't touch the ball at least 25 times in this game and 88 is more than reasonable to reach with that much usage. Robinson is probably the best overall running back prospect we've seen since Saquon Barkley and we saw what he did as a rookie in New York.
PANTHERS WR TERRACE MARSHALL OVER 24.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
I believe that Terrace Marshall is the most talented receiver in this offense. He has all the pedigree, just needed the opportunity and he'll get it in this game especially with D.J. Chark on the shelf. Rookie Bryce Young has to throw the ball to someone and it's either going to be fellow rookie Jonathan Mingo or old veteran Adam Thielen. 25 yards is more than manageable for a player of his skill level.
EAGLES @ PATRIOTS (4:25p)
EAGLES RB D'ANDRE SWIFT OVER 50.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
I felt like all of Fantasy Football draft season Swift was getting overlooked. He is getting put into a prime position with a terrific Eagles run offense. While he will split the workload with Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell, Swift should have no problem reaching this number on the ground and through the air. The Patriots allowed 105 yards per game on the ground last season.
DOLPHINS @ CHARGERS (4:25p)
DOLPHINS RB RAHEEM MOSTERT OVER 63.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Mostert will be the lead dog in a terrific Dolphins rush attack. Whoever is the lead back in Miami will produce big numbers because Mike McDaniel is a terrific offensive mind. The Chargers allowed 145 yards per game on the ground in 2022 which was 5th most in the league. Brandon Staley does not believe in stopping the run, he wants to prevent the big play and plays an umbrella coverage which is good for any running back facing Los Angeles.
DOLPHINS WR TYREEK HILL OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (+100
) Tyreek went over this reception total in 8 of his first 9 games with the Dolphins last season. I spoke about that umbrella coverage that Staley likes to run, so Hill won't likely catch a 60+ yard bomb but he'll be targeted more often in the short game.
PACKERS @ BEARS (4:25p)
PACKERS QB JORDAN LOVE OVER 13.5 RUSHING YARDS (-135)
Everyone is talking about Justin Fields running the ball in this game but people forget about Love's mobility. He can do things that Aaron Rodgers could not do with his legs which means Matt LaFleur can open up the playbook. Love looked terrific in the preseason and we will see if he can own the Bears the way his predecessor did.
BEARS WR D.J. MOORE OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (-115)
What I loved to see this off-season was the connection that Fields and Moore formed very quickly. Justin knows that D.J. will be his go-to man in this offense which he really did not have last season. The two of them could do great things together in Chicago and it all starts in this first game against the Packers. We know Green Bay has a solid secondary but they will find ways to get the ball in Moore's hands throughout the game.
RAMS @ SEAHAWKS (4:25p)
RAMS TE TYLER HIGBEE OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (-135) RAMS TE TYLER HIGBEE OVER 45.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
If you play daily fantasy football, you know that Tyler Higbee is basically a lock button start this weekend. He gets the best matchup for a tight end against a Seahawks defense that allowed 71.5 receiving yards per game which was the most in the NFL. They were consistently torched throughout the season. While things do change over the course of the off-season, it's basically a given that he can cross both of these thresholds on Sunday in Seattle.
SEAHAWKS WR D.K. METCALF OVER 65.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-105)
Jalen Ramsey is no longer in Los Angeles which makes this bet even easier for Metcalf to hit this prop. Those two had epic battles against each other and now he'll feast on this Rams secondary. Even with Ramsey, the Rams allowed 162 yards per game through the air last season.
RAIDERS @ BRONCOS (4:25p)
BRONCOS RB JAVONTE WILLIAMS OVER 10.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-130)
Just look at any running back that has been in a Sean Payton offense, they all have been utilized as a pass catcher. Alvin Kamara is the latest example of that. This number is almost a gimme for prop bets and probably the last time it'll be this low the rest of the season. As a rookie, Javonte went over this receiving total in 9 of his games. I love this bet.
BRONCOS WR COURTLAND SUTTON OVER 55.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I really love this Broncos offense this season, Sean Payton is a fantastic offensive mind and he'll work wonders with Russell Wilson after the debacle of last year. Just look what Payton did with a smaller quarterback in Drew Brees for all those years. Courtland Sutton will be the Marques Colston in this offense. The Raiders allowed wide receivers to catch 158 yards per game in 2022.