Diehards Sunday Prop Bets Week 6 2023

DIEHARDS - WEEK 6 - SUNDAY SLATE

Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com (@DrewPhelps05)
All Props Based off DraftKings Odds

SINGLE PROP 2023 REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

WEEK 6: 0-2
OVERALL: 76-85

49ERS @ BROWNS (1:00p)

49ERS QB BROCK PURDY OVER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (+140)
I’m actually kind of stunned that the odds are this good for this bet. I know the Browns defense is solid but this 49ers offense is running at peak efficiency right now. Lamar Jackson did this against Cleveland in Week 5. Purdy has hit this in 3 of their 5 games this season. He just has so many weapons to make this happen.

49ERS WR DEEBO SAMUEL OVER 38.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
This is such a low threshold for such a great receiver. Again, I know the Browns defense is good but they are giving them too much credit. This 49ers offense is just firing on all cylinders and a big part of that is Deebo who has gone over this receiving total in 4 of his 5 games this season. They have allowed 5 receivers go over this total on the season, basically one per game.

BROWNS RB KAREEM HUNT OVER 5.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)
P.J. Walker will run this offense on Sunday against a very tough 49ers defense. He will need a lot of help moving the ball down the field and pass catching is what Hunt does best. In his first game after signing with the Browns before Week 3, he had 2 catches for 22 yards. The running back has been able to do some damage against this 49ers defense. They have allowed one back to have at least 3 catches in each of their 5 games.

PANTHERS @ DOLPHINS (1:00p)

DOLPHINS RB SALVON AHMED OVER 23.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
No one is talking about this guy but he’s going to have a role in this game without De’Von Achane on the field. Mostert cannot carry the load by himself and they like to use two backs on a regular basis. The Panthers allow the 7th most yards per game on the season. Whoever is running the ball for Miami will be successful against Carolina. I believe Ahmed will get at least 8-10 touches in this game.

PANTHERS WR JONATHAN MINGO OVER 32.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
I know that he went over this number for the first time in his young career in the Panthers Week 5 loss to the Lions but I kind of feel like the game script will be the same. Carolina is going to get smoked by this Dolphins offense and he’ll clean up in garbage time with Bryce Young late in this game. We know that Young has big eyes for Thielen but he can’t throw to him every single time. Mingo has emerged as the 2nd option out wide.

VIKINGS @ BEARS (1:00p)

BEARS WR D.J. MOORE OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-115)
BEARS WR D.J. MOORE OVER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
BEARS WR D.J. MOORE OVER 12.5 FANTASY POINTS (-110)
It’s hard to ignore what he’s doing right now with Justin Fields. Moore has been over both of these numbers in 3 of his last 4 games. We all saw what he did in prime time against the Commanders last Thursday night. He has a great connection with Justin Fields and this Vikings secondary can’t do much to stop them. 7 receivers have crossed both of these numbers against Minnesota’s defense.

BEARS TE COLE KMET OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (-110)
Kmet has had at least 4 catches in 4 of his 5 games this season. Every quarterback needs a second passing option and he has filled that role for the Bears. No one else in the receiving core has been able to step up, so Kmet has been that big reliable target over the middle for Fields. The two good tights that the Vikings have faced this season, Kelce and Goedert both had at least 6 catches against them.

VIKINGS WR K.J. OSBORN OVER 40.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Justin Jefferson is out for the next 4 to 6 weeks and I don’t see the Vikings rushing him back to the field for a team that’s 1-4. Osborn has the longest connection with Kirk Cousins and has earned his trust. Justin went out in the 1st half of their game last week against the Chiefs and Osborn cleared this number for the first time all season. This is too low and I see this number rising over the next couple weeks.

SEAHAWKS @ BENGALS (1:00p)

SEAHAWKS RB ZACH CHARBONNET OVER 20.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
This bet seems like a no brainer. The Bengals are allowing the second most rushing yards per game in the NFL at 154. Charbonnet has been over this rushing total in back to back games coming out of the bye week. He has averaged 7 carries per game and averaging 5 yards per carry on the season. Jump all over this one.

BENGALS WR JA’MARR CHASE OVER 7.5 RECEPTIONS (-110)
BENGALS WR JA’MARR CHASE OVER 89.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
The Bengals found their groove again in Week 5 against the Cardinals. It looked like Joe Burrow was healthy once again and he found his favorite target over and over and over again. This week they get a defense allowing the 3rd most receiving yards per game to their opponent. In 2 of their 4 games this season, they have allowed a receiver to catch 10 balls. 4 wide outs had 85 receiving yards or more against this defense.

COLTS @ JAGUARS (1:00p)

COLTS WR MICHAEL PITTMAN JR OVER 59.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
While Anthony Richardson is more exciting, Gardner Minshew helps this offense move with a more of a balanced attack. They actually may be better off in the long run with Minshew at the helm of this offense. The person who should take advantage of this change at quarterback the most will be Pittman. He is easily the most targeted wide out on the team with 46 through 5 games, which is more than 9 per. The Jacksonville defense has been very tough against the run but they give it up to the pass. They allow 262 yards per game through the air. 7 receivers have gotten at least 60 yards against this defense.

JAGUARS WR CHRISTIAN KIRK OVER 61.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)
JAGUARS WR CHRISTIAN KIRK OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (-125)
It looked like Calvin Ridley was going to be Trevor Lawrence’s guy after Week 1 but since then, Christian Kirk has been the go-to. Kirk has cleared both of these numbers in 3 of his last 4 games including a huge performance in Week 2 with 11 catches for 110 yards. DeAndre Hopkins schooled this secondary last weekend after doing little to nothing through the first 4 weeks. The Colts have allowed a 100 yard receiver in 4 of their 5 games. Indianapolis allows 262 yards per game through the air.

COMMANDERS @ FALCONS (1:00p)

COMMANDERS TE LOGAN THOMAS OVER 35.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
COMMANDERS TE LOGAN THOMAS OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (-130)
Logan has played in 4 games this season and he has been over this receiving total in 3 of them and over the catch total in 2. Sam really loves him as a big target over the middle when he needs a 1st down. The Falcons have allowed a tight end to accomplish both of these in 4 of their 5 games this season. The offense moves better when things roll through the tight end position and that starts with Logan Thomas.

FALCONS WR DRAKE LONDON OVER 44.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I think everyone saw what D.J. Moore did to this secondary in Week 4 because it was in primetime. I’m not saying Drake London is going to go for 200+ receiving yards but I expect him to have a good game. Desmond Ridder is playing for his job and he played like that in Week 5. London has been over this receiving total in 2 of his 5 games this season. They need to get him involved to have any shot at winning.

SAINTS @ TEXANS (1:00p)

SAINTS WR MICHAEL THOMAS OVER 51.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
SAINTS WR MICHAEL THOMAS OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-120)
One of the only consistent things in the Saints offense this season has been Michael Thomas and if you would have told that before the season I would have said you were crazy. He has been over the yardage in 4 of 5 and receptions in 3 of 5 this season. The Texans have improved on defense but basically middle of the road against both the pass and the run. He should continue to get his work over the middle and be that safety valve for Derek Carr.

PATRIOTS @ RAIDERS (4:05p)

RAIDERS WR DAVANTE ADAMS OVER 15.5 FANTASY POINTS (-110)
RAIDERS WR DAVANTE ADAMS OVER 74.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Everyone is now just noticing what Jakobi Meyers is doing this season out there in Las Vegas. This is where you zig while everyone else zags. Adams had a crappy night against his old squad which everyone got burned on, including myself. He gets a terrific matchup against J.C. Jackson who he has torched on multiple occasions. This will be a get right game for Adams against a New England team that comes limping into this one.

EAGLES @ JETS (4:25p)

EAGLES WR A.J. BROWN OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+114)
EAGLES WR A.J. BROWN OVER 69.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
A.J. Brown has been over these numbers in 4 of the 5 games played this season but he’s taken it to another level over his last 3. That normally would be enough but they have the Jets and we know they have Sauce Gardner but he’s not playing. That tells me, A.J. Brown to the damn moon in this one on Sunday.

EAGLES RB D’ANDRE SWIFT OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS (-105)
EAGLES RB D’ANDRE SWIFT OVER 66.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
EAGLES RB D’ANDRE SWIFT OVER 86.5 RUSH + RECEIVE YARDS (-115)
As you can tell, I really like Swift in this game. The Jets are allowing the 4th most rushing yards per game on the season at 146.2. D’Andre has been over all three of these totals in 3 of his last 4 games. My feeling is that A.J. starts the game hot and gets them out to a lead and then Swift cleans them up in the end. This game could be closer than we think though with the Eagles defense banged up a bit.

CARDINALS @ RAMS (4:25p)

RAMS QB MATTHEW STAFFORD OVER 21 FANTASY POINTS (-110)
I did not love the props for his totals like passing yards and touchdowns so I figured why not go with the fantasy points. Joe Burrow lit this secondary up in Week 5 and this week they’ve got 3 stud wide receivers to worry about, not just Ja’Marr Chase. Stafford has gone over 300 passing yards 3 times in 5 weeks. I think Stafford has a huge game but my issue is, I can’t decide which wideout is going to have the biggest day. The obvious answer is Kupp but this way I get to take advantage of all of them with his fantasy points.

LIONS @ BUCCANEERS (4:25p)

LIONS TE SAM LAPORTA UNDER 11 FANTASY POINTS (-105)
I think this is the game where LaPorta comes down to earth a bit. He will have a tough matchup against that Buccaneers linebacking core, the toughest test he’s had this season. I think this kid is legit and will be a good tight end in this league but I just think he’ll have a down game this weekend against Tampa.

LIONS RB DAVID MONTGOMERY UNDER 78.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Montgomery has been a machine this season. It’s been amazing to see him take the lead of this backfield and not give the rookie any chance of seeing the field. I think this game he gets held in check a bit. Tampa Bay does stop the run, they have held their opponents to under 100 yards per game on the ground this season. D’Andre Swift is the only back to go over 55 yards rushing all season. Tampa has surprised everyone this season and I think that continues on Sunday.