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DIEHARDS SATURDAY NIGHT PROP BETS week 16 2022
SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 255-262
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 5-15
BILLS @ BEARS (1:00p ET)
BILLS RB JAMES COOK OVER 30.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
The Bills tend to use Cook more in games where they've got a big lead. He's been over this rushing prop in two of his last three games. Despite the Bears trading Roquan Smith, they have gotten a little better against the run but still allow 109 yards per game on the ground to the running back position.
SEAHAWKS @ CHIEFS (1:00p ET)
CHIEFS RB JERICK MCKINNON OVER 25.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
This is one of the best plays on the board this week. McKinnon has become Mahomes' go to check down option. He has had 15 catches on 17 targets over the last two games. The Seahawks have allowed 47 yards per game through the air to the running back position. Jump all over McKinnon this week.
CHIEFS TE TRAVIS KELCE OVER 77.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)
If there was ever a game for Travis Kelce to go off, this is the one. The Seahawks allow 61 yards per game through the air to the tight end position which is the third most in the league. While Travis has only been over this number in one of his last four games, I think he goes over 100 yards for the second straight game.
BENGALS @ PATRIOTS (1:00p ET)
BENGALS RB JOE MIXON UNDER 62.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
You beat the Patriots through the air, not on the ground. They've got a really good front seven and they keep the opposing running back to under 85 yards per game on the ground. Mixon has been under this rushing prop in two of his last three games played. Joe Cool will be slinging the ball in this game, if anything I like Mixon over his receiving yards.
BENGALS WR TYLER BOYD OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (+110)
As I spoke about earlier, the Patriots are not great against the pass. Tyler Boyd may not be Burrow's first look or even second but he's still involved in this passing attack. He has covered this receptions prop in two of his last three games. The Patriots like to shut down the top weapon which would be Ja'Marr Chase which should give Higgins and Boyd more opportunities.
LIONS @ PANTHERS (1:00p ET)
PANTHERS WR D.J. MOORE OVER 55.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
PANTHERS WR D.J. MOORE OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (+125)
Sam Darnold loves him so D.J. Moore. The guy only has eyes for the former Maryland Terrapin wide receiver. Since Darnold has taken over at quarterback, nearly 50 percent of the potential air yards are going towards Moore. He has been over this receiving prop number in two of his last three games. He was over this receptions prop in his last game. Moore will likely be covered by Jeff Okudah who has been pretty awful this season. Jump all over his props.
LIONS RB D'ANDRE SWIFT OVER 33.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)
Swift has not had that explosive break out season that most all of us expected but it has gotten better over recent weeks. He's been over this rushing prop in two of his last three games and gets a good matchup this weekend. The Panthers are allowing the 8th most rushing yards to opposing running backs on the season at 104 per game. This is not a big number to hit, very reasonable.
GIANTS @ VIKINGS (1:00p ET)
GIANTS WR ISAIAH HODGINS OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (-105)
This is not a name you'd expect to see in a prop article but you have to recognize the consistency from Hodgins over the last three weeks. He has caught 5, 4, and 4 over these last three games. The Vikings cannot stop the pass, allowing 293 yards per game through the air. Daniel Jones has to throw the ball to someone and Hodgins has been a reliable option.
GIANTS RB SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (-135)
The Vikings cannot stop the pass, allowing 293 yards per game through the air. They also allow five catches and 44 yards per game to the running back position on the season. Barkley has had at least four catches in three of his last four games.
FALCONS @ RAVENS (1:00p ET)
RAVENS J.K. DOBBINS OVER 63.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Dobbins has looked phenomenal over the last two games for the Ravens since returning from injury. The most amazing part is that he looks hurt and is still putting up huge numbers. Dobbins has had 120 rushing yards in back to back games. The Falcons are allowing 103 yards on the ground per game.
TEXANS @ TITANS (1:00p ET)
TITANS RB DERRICK HENRY OVER 111.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
TITANS RB DERRICK HENRY OVER 20.5 LONGEST RUSH (-105)
This is the low hanging fruit of the week. In 11 career games against the Texans, he has averaged 114 yards per game. Henry has had over 200 yards rushing in four straight games against this Houston team. Every time I think this streak has to end, he just does it again. Just plug this bet in and forget about it.
SAINTS @ BROWNS (1:00p ET)
BROWNS TE DAVID NJOKU OVER 24.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Njoku has had at least six targets in each of the last three games. In those three games, he has cleared this receiving prop in all three. The Saints are one of the better teams in the league against the tight end position but even they allow 33 yards per game through the air. There is not a lot to like in this game because of the offenses and the weather expected.
COMMANDERS @ 49ERS (4:05p ET)
49ERS TE GEORGE KITTLE UNDER 44.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
The Commanders are the top team in the league at stopping the tight end position allowing just 30 yards per game. If you ignore Kittle's huge game against the Seahawks last week, he had been under this prop in the three previous games. Seattle is the polar opposite when it comes to stopping the tight end.
COMMANDERS WR TERRY MCLAURIN UNDER 56.6 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
These are two good defenses and I expect a lot of running the ball. Taylor Heinicke may get pulled in this game if he continues to struggle. This 49ers defense is so tough and will force him to make mistakes. McLaurin will see a lot of Charvarius Ward in this game and he is ranked number three in coverage rating. I just don't think Heinicke will be able to get him the ball consistently.
EAGLES @ COWBOYS (4:05p ET)
EAGLES WR DEVONTA SMITH OVER 52.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I know that Gardner Minshew is starting at quarterback in this game but he has proven to be one of the better backups in the league. He played for Mike Leach and can really throw the rock. He will not be afraid to light up this Cowboys defense which is really beat up in the secondary.
COWBOYS RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT UNDER 14.5 LONGEST RUSH (-120)
The Cowboys will try to pound the ball like they always do but the Eagles defense is different when they have Jordan Davis in the middle. He plugged up that middle where Elliott likes to run the ball. I think Zeke gets his in this game but it will be on a lot of carries not on a few break aways. When you look at the games where Elliott has hit this prop, they've all been against weaker rush defenses.