Diehards Sunday Prop Bets Week 14 2023

DIEHARDS - WEEK 14 - SUNDAY SLATE

Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com (@DrewPhelps05)
All Props Based off DraftKings Odds

SINGLE PROP 2023 REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

WEEK 14: 0-2
OVERALL: 171-191

RAMS @ RAVENS (1p ET)

RAVENS TE ISAIAH LIKELY OVER 34.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
We’ve got no Mark Andrews for the rest of the season which means a huge role needs to be filled in this offense and that will go to the most LIKELY candidate, see what I did there? We know how much Lamar loves throwing over the middle to his tight ends. In his first game without Andrews, Isaiah had 6 targets, catching 4 of them for 40 yards against the Chargers. The Rams allow over 60 yards per game and have allowed the 3rd most points to the tight end position. This is an easy bet to me.

LIONS @ BEARS (1p ET)

BEARS WR D.J. MOORE OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+105)
As long as Justin Fields is the quarterback of this team, D.J. Moore will be the go-to wide receiver. In the 2 games since Justin returned to the lineup, D.J. has had 9 and 13 targets for 7 and 11 catches. The fact that this is plus odds is just ridiculous and you should jump at it before those odds shift. The Lions have allowed the 11th most points to the wide receiver position. Fields and Moore connected for 7 and 96 in their first matchup against the Lions a few weeks ago. I don’t have any reason to believe that this will change.

BEARS RB ROSCHON JOHNSON OVER 18.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Detroit is much better against the run than the pass but Roschon had 6 carries for 30 yards against this same team just a few weeks ago. The Lions have been more susceptible to the run recently, allowing 135 yards per game on the ground over their last 3 games. Johnson also carried the ball 10 times in the Bears last game, that kind of a workload should get him 20 yards, if he can’t, he doesn’t deserve to be on an NFL roster.

COLTS @ BENGALS (1p ET)

COLTS WR MICHAEL PITTMAN JR OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (-135)
COLTS WR MICHAEL PITTMAN JR 80+ ALT RECEIVING YARDS (+115)
It’s hard not to target this dude every single week, no matter the opponent. Gardner Minshew only has eyes for this guy and with good reason. The target numbers are crazy for this guy, especially over his last 5 games. He is averaging 12.4 targets per game over the last 5. He has caught at least 8 balls in each of his last 5 games as well. He has been over 80 yards receiving in 4 of those last 5. The Bengals allow the 9th most receiving yards per game to the wide receiver position. He should easily surpass these numbers.

TEXANS @ JETS (1p ET)

JETS RB BREECE HALL OVER 21.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
This is about as consistent as you’ll find around the NFL. Hall has averaged 5 catches a week over his last 6 games, that kind of volume just begs to go over this receiving total. He has averaged nearly 40 yards per game receiving over that same 6 game stretch. You’ve got Zach Wilson back at the helm of the offense in this one, that gives me even more confidence that he hits this prop easily. The Texans allow 38 yards per game through the air to the running back position.

JETS QB ZACH WILSON OVER 30.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-105)
This prop was a gold mine before his benching in Week 11. Prior to that week, he had easily gone over this number in 6 of his last 7 games. It is much easier to pass the ball against this Texans defense than it is to run against it. Once again, I believe the Jets will be trailing in this game because of C.J. Stroud’s ability to move the ball down the field.

PANTHERS @ SAINTS (1p ET)

SAINTS RB ALVIN KAMARA OVER 38.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
SAINTS WR CHRIS OLAVE OVER 67.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I’m pairing these two together because they are the entirety of the Saints offense. The combination of these two help move this offense down the field. I’m not worried about the Panthers defensive numbers because they are 1-11. Kamara has been over this receiving total in 5 of his last 6 games, remember he did not play against the Panthers in their first meeting back in Week 2. Chris Olave did and he had 86 yards on 6 catches. Olave has been over this receiving total in each of his last 3 games. I will likely put these two into a SGP where I take Kamara at 25+ and Olave at 60+. One, if not both of these should hit easily, especially playing in the Superdome.

BUCCANEERS @ FALCONS (1p ET)

FALCONS RB BIJAN ROBINSON RACE TO 20 RUSHING YARDS (+125)
There is not a lot I love in this game but this one stood out to me. If you remember, the last time these two teams met was when Bijan was held out because of a headache that no one knew about. I feel like this is going to be a revenge game for him after all the backlash. He only needs to get to 20 yards rushing before anyone else on the field and I think he can do it.

BUCCANEERS WR MIKE EVANS OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+105)
I love the fact that this prop is sitting at plus odds. He had 6 for 82 and a touchdown against the Falcons in their first meeting in Week 7. Evans has had at least 6 catches in 3 of his last 4 games as well. The secondary is legit in Atlanta but covering Mike Evans is a different story. He has been over this prop in 2 of his last 3 meetings against the Falcons. Evans has had at least 10 targets in 3 of his last 4 games. Baker Mayfield knows who to get the ball too.

JAGUARS @ BROWNS (1p ET)

I hate EVERYTHING about this game. I’m going to avoid betting on it at all costs.

SEAHAWKS @ 49ERS (4:05p ET)

49ERS WR DEEBO SAMUEL OVER 50.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
He is healthy and there is nothing not to love about him this weekend against the Seahawks. San Francisco just played Seattle two weeks ago and Deebo produced 7 catches for 79 yards. Samuel was targeted 9 times in that game. He has been over this receiving prop number in his last 3 games. In his 5 career games against the Seahawks, he’s been way over this number in 4 of them. When the 49ers have all of their weapons healthy, it’s hard to stop and Deebo has been reaping the rewards lately.

VIKINGS @ RAIDERS (4:05p ET)

VIKINGS QB JOSH DOBBS OVER 5.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (+114)
In the Vikings last game against the Bears, it was the first time he did not rush the ball more than 5 times since he took over as starter in Week 9. They need him to make some improvised plays to keep this offense moving. He will get the benefit of Justin Jefferson back in the lineup which should help.

RAIDERS QB AIDAN O’CONNELL OVER 30.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-115)
I’m going to keep riding this prop until the wheels fall off. He has been easily over this number in back to back games before Week 13 bye week. They can run Josh Jacobs as much as they want but the Raiders need to show they can throw the ball. You’ve got Davante Adams, you need to use him. He has been targeted an average of 11 times per game over their last 3. That’s 11 pass attempts just to one guy. Then add in another 6 to Jakobi Meyers and you are already more than halfway there.

BILLS @ CHIEFS (4:25p ET)

CHIEFS QB PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 274.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
This Chiefs offense is just not the same. They made it work last year without Tyreek Hill but this season has been a completely different ballgame. All of Mahomes' numbers are down because they don’t have anyone they can truly rely on besides Travis Kelce. Patrick has been under this passing prop in 4 of his last 5 games. The Bills allow just 221 yards per game through the air. Only 3 quarterbacks all season have gone over this number against Buffalo’s defense.

BRONCOS @ CHARGERS (4:25p ET)

BRONCOS WR COURTLAND SUTTON OVER 57.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
The Chargers have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. They allow an average of 180 yards per game to the wide receiver position. Don’t let last week’s shut out against the Patriots sway you in any way. Sutton has been over this receiving number in his last 3 games. He is easily the most targeted receiver for the Broncos and he’ll continue to be this weekend against the Chargers.

BRONCOS QB RUSSELL WILSON OVER 5.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-120)
I found this gem last week and it was an easy winner for me. I don’t see any reason why it won’t hit again especially knowing Khalil Mack will be bearing down on him throughout this game. Wilson is averaging 8 carries per over the Broncos’ last 5 games. He has been a huge asset to keep drives alive by running for 1st downs.