DIEHARDS SATURDAY NIGHT PROP BETS week 15 2022

By Drew Phelps
Drew Phelps

DIEHARDS - WEEK 15 SATURDAY NIGHT SLATE
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com

SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 232-244
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 5-15
 

COLTS @ VIKINGS (1:00p ET)

COLTS WR MICHAEL PITTMAN OVER 69.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The Vikings are the worst team in the league at covering the wide receiver position. They allow 208 yards per game to wide outs. I know Pittman has been under this number in six of his last seven games but this has to be the break out especially coming off of a bye.

 

 

COLTS TE KYLEN GRANSON OVER 1.5 RECEPTIONS (-135)

It is obvious that Matt Ryan likes targeting his big second year tight end. Granson has had four catches in two of his last three games played. This is such a low threshold in a game script that should be favorable for the receivers. The Vikings allow four catches per game on average to the tight end position.

 

 

 

VIKINGS WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON UNDER 93.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I hope you don't think this is just a hot take but I've got reasoning behind it. He has actually only been over this in two of the last four games. The Colts only allow 118 total yards to the wide receiver position each game. The Vikings will have better luck on the ground against this Indianapolis defense. I know Jefferson is a stud and is basically matchup proof but I think he gets held in check this game.

 

 

 

BROWNS @ RAVENS (4:30p ET)

RAVENS RB J.K. DOBBINS OVER 48.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)

Dobbins made a splash in his return to the Ravens lineup against the Steelers running for 120 yards on 15 carries. I know it is just a one game sample size but he gets a good matchup against the Browns at home. Cleveland allows 128 yards per game on the ground. The Ravens run the ball because that's their identity. He will get plenty of opportunities to hit a very reasonable prop number.

 

 

RAVENS WR DEVIN DUVERNAY UNDER 13.5 LONGEST RECEPTION (-110)

As much as this one pains me, this seems like a lock. Devin has been under this prop number in six straight games. After being the top target earlier this season, he seems to be forgotten in this Ravens offense. He has only had 14 targets combined over the last five games which doesn't give him too many opportunities to go over that number.

 

 

 

BROWNS TE DAVID NJOKU OVER 39.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The Ravens are one of the better teams in the league against the tight end position with their athletic linebackers, allowing just 41 yards per game. He had nine targets last week for 59 yards which tells me that he's already formed a connection with Deshaun Watson. Njoku has been over this number in five of his last six games against the Ravens.

 

 

 

DOLPHINS @ BILLS (8:15p ET)

BILLS QB JOSH ALLEN OVER 46.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

We will have a snow game on Saturday night between the Dolphins and Bills. We have seen in these type games that Josh Allen takes over with his legs. There will be winds in the low teens with falling snow throughout the game. He did cover this prop number in their first game back in Miami. Allen has been over this prop number in four of his last seven games. Miami allows the second most rushing yards to the quarterback position per game.

 

 

DOLPHINS QB TUA TAGOVAILOA UNDER 237.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

Tua and the Dolphins can say all they want about how the snow won't bother them but I want to see it. Did you see him last week against the 49ers? I know the Bills defense is not as good as San Francisco but he was exposed in that game. Tua did not cross 200 yards passing in their first matchup this season, what makes you think he'll do it in a worse weather game on the road? We will continue to see the chinks in the armor.

 

 

DOLPHINS TE MIKE GESICKI UNDER 16.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)

DOLPHINS TE MIKE GESICKI UNDER 11.5 LONGEST RECEPTION (-105)

Do you want to know how many catches Gesicki has over the Dolphins last five games combined? That would be three. He had one game with two where he totaled 31 yards but the other four games he combined for 3 TOTAL YARDS! Tua just doesn't look his way with only four total targets over his last three games. Just keep betting his unders and you'll make money.