Diehards Thanksgiving Thursday Prop Bets Week 12 2023

DIEHARDS - WEEK 12 - THANKSGIVING SLATE

Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com (@DrewPhelps05)
All Props Based off DraftKings Odds

SINGLE PROP 2023 REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

WEEK 11: 13-11
OVERALL: 148-164

PACKERS @ LIONS (12:30p ET)

PACKERS QB JORDAN LOVE OVER 32.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-135)
PACKERS QB JORDAN LOVE OVER 228.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
This prop seems too good to be true, especially the pass attempts. Good or bad, the Packers have been throwing the ball a lot more with mediocre success. Love has thrown the ball 40+ times in 3 of his last 4 games. He has gone over this passing prop in back to back games. Jordan hit both of these props in their first meeting of the season. 2 of the Lions last 3 opposing quarterbacks have thrown for over 320 yards. Detroit is in the bottom half of the league when it comes to stopping the pass.

LIONS RB JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I think both running backs could eat in this game, the Packers give up the 5th most rushing yards per game in the NFL. I’m going with what I think is the most consistent bet in a great matchup. Gibbs has been easily over this number in his last 4 games. He did not get to this number in their first game this season but he had 5 targets.

COMMANDERS @ COWBOYS (4:30p ET)

COWBOYS RB TONY POLLARD OVER 20.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
I have found a gold mine when it comes to betting every week. Washington has allowed a running back to have at least 21 receiving yards in 7 of their last 8 games. The receiving yards prop hits every single week even for non-catching backs like Kenneth Walker, went for a 60+ yard catch. Saquon Barkley hit his prop on his very first catch of the game. I know Pollard has not gone over this number in 5 weeks that streak ends on Turkey Day. I love everything about this prop.

COWBOYS WR CEEDEE LAMB OVER 100+ ALT RECEIVING YARDS (+120)
Why bet the 90.5 receiving prop when I can get +120 odds at the 100 yard mark. I’m still shocked that the Panthers snapped CeeDee’s incredible run of 4 straight 100 yard receiving games. The top dog receiver on each team just drools when they see the Commanders. Do you remember what D.J. Moore did against them on Thursday night football? I have no doubt that Lamb has the chance to do it again. 8 receivers have had 75 yards or more receiving yards against this Commanders secondary over their last 7 games. He will overmatch the defense.

49ERS @ SEAHAWKS (8:20p ET)

49ERS QB BROCK PURDY UNDER PASS ATTEMPTS 30.5 (-115)
I bet you didn't know that he has only been over this prop number in 2 of his 10 games played this season. He’s been under in 6 of his last 7. They really like to have a balanced attack especially when they’ve got all their weapons healthy. You have Christian McCaffrey standing behind you, you have to use him. I think they’ll have this game in hand and hand the ball off a lot in the second half.

49ERS WR BRANDON AIYUK OVER 64.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I’m probably being premature with this but I believe Aiyuk is the number one in this offense with Brock Purdy at the helm. I also love that he makes the most of his catches. 2 of his last 3 games he’s had over 100 yards on just 5 catches. He leads the team in targets. The Seahawks allow 261 yards per game through the air at home which is 7th most in the league.

49ERS TE GEORGE KITTLE OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (+105)
We have clearly seen a big time connection between Purdy and Kittle. He has been over this prop in 3 of his last 4 games and having all the other weapons back only helps him out. Kittle is second on the team in targets only behind Aiyuk and has led the team in targets in 2 of his last 3. It is also very tempting to take him with those plus odds.