DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 15 2022

DIEHARDS - WEEK 15 SUNDAY SLATE
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com

SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 238-248
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 5-15
 

EAGLES @ BEARS (1:00p ET)

EAGLES RB MILES SANDERS OVER 69.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

While his production has been inconsistent, you just can't ignore this play. The Eagles have the best run game in the league, they have the second best offensive line in football according to PFF and they have Jalen Hurts who's running ability only helps out his backfield. He split carries but is still the primary in this backfield. Sanders has had over 140 yards rushing in two of his last two games. The Bears are allowing 114 yards per game on the ground.

BEARS QB JUSTIN FIELDS OVER 10.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-120)

The only way the Bears stay in this game is on the back of Justin Fields. He has to be special and make amazing plays to keep them within reach. He has rushed the ball double digit times in five of their last seven games. While the Eagles are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to stopping the quarterback run.

CHIEFS @ TEXANS (1:00p ET)

CHIEFS RB ISIAH PACHECO OVER 83.5 RUSH + RECEIVE YARDS (-115)

It is the dream matchup for running backs. The Houston Texans cannot stop the running back at all. We've talked about this every single week of the NFL season. The only fear is that Mahomes will throw the ball all over the yard against this terrible defense. I really don't have to go over the stats again, the Texans are terrible at stopping the run, jump all over this.

COWBOYS @ JAGUARS (1:00p ET)

COWBOYS QB DAK PRESCOTT UNDER 32.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-115)

Most people assume that Dak will throw it all over the yard against this Jaguars defense but I don't see it that way. They will stay with their game plan of running the ball as much as possible. If the run game is working, the Cowboys win the game. Dak has actually only thrown over this prop number in two of his eight games this season. He only went over the number last week because they trailed late in that game.

COWBOYS RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT OVER 55.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

I still believe that Zeke has lost a step and you can see it in his speed and burst but the dude is still getting it done. He has been over this prop number in four of his last five games. The Cowboys continue to feed him the rock and he's making the most of his opportunities. Jacksonville is allowing 133 yards on the ground per game over their last three.

JAGUARS QB TREVOR LAWRENCE OVER 249.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

If the Jaguars are going to win this game, they are going to have to do it on the arm on Trevor Lawrence. The Cowboys defense is legit but so is his offensive line, they are giving him time to deliver the ball. Lawrence has gotten over this passing number in three of his last four games.

LIONS @ JETS (1:00p ET)

JETS RB ZONOVAN KNIGHT UNDER 65.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

The Lions are going to make Zach Wilson beat them on Sunday. They are not going to let the Jets impose their will on the ground. If you haven't been paying attention, the Lions are playing much better ball especially on the defensive side of the ball. On the season, they are allowing 139 yards per game but over their last three, just 93 yards on the ground. This Detroit defense is not a pushover anymore.

LIONS WR D.J. CHARK UNDER 2.5 RECEPTIONS (+125)

This is a bit of a gut call but I think his hot play cools off this week. I think the whole Lions offense cools off this week against this tough Jets defense. On top of playing this really good New York defense, Detroit is not the same team on offense when they play away from Ford Field. The Lions average over 32 points per game at home but only 18 points per game. I think he'll get forgotten in this ball game.

STEELERS @ PANTHERS (1:00p ET)

PANTHERS RB CHUBA HUBBARD OVER 33.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

When I am writing this article on Saturday night, there are not a lot of props available for this game. I really like the rushing attack for the Panthers against this Steelers defense. Over their last three games, Pittsburgh's defense is allowing 157 yards per game on the ground. While Foreman has been getting more carries, Hubbard has had 14 carries or more in each of his last two games. Hubbard has been over this rushing prop number in both of those games.

FALCONS @ SAINTS (1:00p ET)

FALCONS QB DESMOND RIDDER OVER 167.5 PASSING YARDS (-120)

I feel like this number is an insult to Ridder. This is embarrassingly low. I get it, he's a rookie playing his first game on the road in a tough environment but this guy is a gamer. I have this gut feeling that Ridder is going to light it up for the Falcons on Sunday and show why Atlanta should have started him from day 1.

SAINTS RB ALVIN KAMARA OVER 59.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)

This has got to be the week that Kamara wakes up and becomes Alvin Kamara for at least one more week. The matchup does not get any better for him. The Falcons allow 129 yards per game on the ground and 163 per game over their last three. He's still the man in this backfield and gets fed the rock on a regular basis. This has got to be the week, I'm going to just keep saying it and hope it comes true.

PATRIOTS @ RAIDERS (4:05p ET)

PATRIOTS QB MAC JONES OVER 35.5 LONGEST COMPLETION (-120)

I really don't like Mac Jones in general but he can throw the deep ball. He has been over this prop number in three straight games coming into this one. The Raiders secondary is simply awful this season. They allow 257 yards through the air and 277 yards per game over their last three. I think he pumps one down the field for a big gain in this one.

PATRIOTS TE HUNTER HENRY OVER 31.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)

I have already spoken about the awful Raiders secondary, no need to go through those numbers again. Las Vegas also allows 51 yards per game to the tight end position on the season. He has been getting more involved in this Patriots offense over the last three games. Henry has been over this receiving prop number in two of his last three games.

RAIDERS RB JOSH JACOBS UNDER 81.5 RUSHING YARDS (+100)

The Patriots allow the sixth fewest rushing yards per game to the running back position on the season. Josh Jacobs is the biggest piece of this Las Vegas offense this season. We know that Bill Belichick loves to take away the best weapon of the opponent and I feel like that is Jacobs. Everything the Raiders want to do on offense runs through Jacobs.

CARDINALS @ BRONCOS (4:05p ET)

CARDINALS RB JAMES CONNER OVER 66.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

CARDINALS RB JAMES CONNER OVER 93.5 RUSH + RECEIVE YARDS (-115)

Colt McCoy at the helm of this Cardinals offense for the remainder of this season and we know they are going to continue to throw the ball at will. The veteran running back has been over this rushing total in three of his last four games. I know most assume the Broncos defense is good but they have struggled against the run. They allow 117 yards per game for the season and over 125 in their last three. He will get all the workload on Sunday which includes lots of dump offs from McCoy. James caught six balls last week.

BRONCOS TE GREG DULCICH OVER 39.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

While I am not a fan of Brett Rypien running this offense, he can't be much worse than we saw from Russell Wilson. Dulcich gets the best matchup for the tight end position against this Cardinals defense. They allow 73 yards per game to the tight end spot. Greg has been over this prop number in back to back games with eight targets in each of those games.

BENGALS @ BUCCANEERS (4:25p ET)

BUCCANEERS QB TOM BRADY OVER 40.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-130)

Tom is determined to put this team on his back and carry them to victories. He has been able to do it a few times but not enough. He has been over this prop number in nine of his last 11 games. The Bengals will get up in this game and Brady will be forced to throw them back into it.

BENGALS RB JOE MIXON OVER 78.5 RUSH + RECEIVE YARDS (-130)

I have a feeling that this is going to be a big game for Joe. The Buccaneers defense has struggled to stop the running back, they are just not the same unit they were two years ago. They have allowed nearly 155 yards per game on the ground over their last three games. Mixon had 96 yards on the ground alone in his first game back from the concussion, he could easily do that again against this defense.

BUCCANEERS RB RACHAAD WHITE OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (+110)

This number seems low to me and the odds make it even more enticing to bet on this weekend. White has caught 9, 6 and 5 passes in his last three games since basically taking over the starting running back spot. We could definitely see the Buccaneers down in this game and Tom having to run the hurry up offense and dump the ball off a bunch to White.

TITANS @ CHARGERS (4:25p ET)

CHARGERS QB JUSTIN HERBERT OVER 27.5 PASS COMPLETIONS (+100)

CHARGERS WR MIKE WILLIAMS OVER 64.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

CHARGERS WR KEENAN ALLEN OVER 70.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I am putting all of these props together for a reason. The Titans secondary is crap and these three are going to put on a show Sunday afternoon. Herbert has been over this prop number in three straight games. Williams went over his prop number in his first game back from his injury last week. Keenan went over his prop number in three of his last four games. The Titans secondary is second worst in the league against the wide receiver position allowing 191 yards per game. I'd parlay all three of this together and make bank.