Diehards Sunday Prop Bets Week 11 2023

DIEHARDS - WEEK 11 - SUNDAY SLATE

Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com (@DrewPhelps05)
All Props Based off DraftKings Odds

SINGLE PROP 2023 REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

WEEK 11: 3-1
OVERALL: 138-154

BEARS @ LIONS (1:00p ET)

LIONS RB DAVID MONTGOMERY UNDER 51.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
The Bears may not be very good, but one thing they do well is stop the run. They haven’t allowed a running back to reach 50 yards since Week 4 against the Broncos. Chicago is allowing just 76 yards per game on the ground and only 61 over their last 3.

LIONS WR AMON-RA ST. BROWN 100+ ALT RECEIVING YARDS (+160)
Hard not to love everything about Amon-Ra in this matchup. He has been over 100 yards receiving in 4 straight games and 6 of his 8 games played this season. The Bears give up the 7th most receiving yards per game in the NFL and the 2nd most away from home at 298 yards. Goff to St. Brown should go off together in this one.

RAIDERS @ DOLPHINS (1:00p ET)

DOLPHINS WR TYREEK HILL OVER 92.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Tyreek is averaging over 150 yards receiving per game when playing at home at Hard Rock Stadium. Despite the Raiders being 8th best against the pass in the league, they were exposed for 257 last week against the lowly Jets and Zach Wilson. Garrett Wilson covered this number last week, so Tyreek can definitely do the same.

RAIDERS QB AIDAN O’CONNELL OVER 31.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-115)
There is a very logical reason as to why I love this prop. The Dolphins are going to score and score in bunches against this Raiders defense. Las Vegas will not be able to rely on the run to carry them the way they have the last two weeks under Antonio Pierce. If they want to have any chance of staying with Miami, they will need to throw the ball especially in the 2nd half.

COWBOYS @ PANTHERS (1:00p ET)

COWBOYS WR CEEDEE LAMB OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (-115)
I was shocked when I saw this number still sitting at 6.5 after the production we’ve seen from CeeDee over his last 4 games. He has been targeted at least 14 times in their last 3 games with at least 10 catches in each. The Panthers are better against the pass than the run but they aren’t world beaters. My only fear would be that they get up big early and he gets rested late in the game but I think he’ll already be clear of this prop by then.

CARDINALS @ TEXANS (1:00p ET)

TEXANS QB C.J. STROUD UNDER 266.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
Let me start by saying I love this kid and think he’s the real deal unlike Bryce Young. I think this will be a bit of a comeback to earth game for the rookie quarterback. While everyone has gone gaga over his last two games with good reason, they have completely forgotten he went under 200 yards passing in the two previous games against lesser opponents. Only 2 quarterbacks have gone over this passing number against the Cardinals, Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy.

CARDINALS TE TREY MCBRIDE OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+120)
CARDINALS TE TREY MCBRIDE OVER 56.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
No Zach Ertz, no problem for this Cardinals offense. Trey McBride has stepped right into that lead role even with the change at quarterback, no slowing him down at this point. Kyler targeted him 9 times in his first game back. He has had at least 8 catches and 95 yards in 2 of his last 3 games. The Texans have been beat up all season by the Tight End position.

GIANTS @ COMMANDERS (1:00p ET)

GIANTS RB SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 18.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
As a long suffering Commanders fan, I’ve seen Saquon Barkley torture us since he came in the league. He has averaged 88 yards on the ground and 39 through the air in his 8 career games against Washington. While he has only been over this number in 2 of his last 4 games, this one will be different. The Commanders have allowed running backs to go ham out of the backfield. A running back has gone over this number in their last 5 games, including Barkley 4 weeks ago when he went for 41 yards receiving.

TITANS @ JAGUARS (1:00p ET)

TITANS QB WILL LEVIS OVER 218.5 PASSING YARDS (-110)
I have been impressed with this rookie. He passes the eye test and I’ve seen him do some next level things that you don’t see from kids fresh out of college. He struggled in his 3rd start against Tampa Bay but I’m expecting a nice bounce back in Week 11. He gets a good matchup against a Jacksonville secondary that allows 266 yards per game through the air which is 3rd most in the NFL. If you throw out that game against the Steelers, the Jaguars have allowed 295 yards passing or more in 4 straight games.

CHARGERS @ PACKERS (1:00p ET)

PACKERS WR DONTAYVION WICKS OVER 20.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Here is a new name to my prop article and I’m mad I didn’t spot this one sooner. Jordan Love really loves throwing this kid the ball and he’ll get lots of opportunities against the worst pass defense in the league on Sunday. His snap share has slowly increased over the last 4 weeks which has led to him clearing this prop number in the last 3 games. Wicks has actually increased his yardage total in each of the last 3 weeks. This is such a small threshold, he can get there with 2 catches.

CHARGERS RB AUSTIN EKELER OVER 55.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
CHARGERS RB AUSTIN EKELER UNDER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-130)
The Packers are not good against the ground attack. They allow the 6th most rushing yards per game in the NFL. The Packers were shredded for over 200 yards rushing last week against the Steelers in Week 10. Ekeler hasn’t had that same burst through the line like we’ve been accustomed to seeing except when he gets inside the 10. This is too good of a matchup for him not to get over that rushing total. He has only been over this total in 2 games, Week 1 and last week but I think he gets there in Week 11. The receptions may be a crazy prop to attack but this new offense doesn’t have Justin Herbert dumping it off nearly as much. He has only had more than 4 catches in 1 of his 6 games played this season. I’m planning to put all 3 of these bets into a SGP.

STEELERS @ BROWNS (1:00p ET)

STEELERS QB KENNY PICKETT UNDER 12 FANTASY POINTS (-110)
This Browns defense is so damn good. The Quarterback position has averaged just 11.92 points per game against this Cleveland squad. They only allow 151 yards per game through the air. The other reason I love this prop is that Pickett has only been over this 12 point threshold in 2 of his 9 games played. He only managed 10.28 in their first meeting this season. He is not a good quarterback, just an honest opinion. The Browns will struggle on offense without Watson but their defense can still stop anyone in their tracks especially Kenny Pickett.

BROWNS RB JEROME FORD OVER 13.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-135)
We will see rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson take the helm of this offense in Week 11 with the injury to Deshaun Watson. If you watched his first start, it was truly ugly against the Baltimore Ravens. Cleveland will have to lean on the run in this game to have any chance of moving the ball against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has allowed the 8th most rushing yards per game on the season which is a huge positive for the Browns.

BUCCANEERS @ 49ERS (4:05p ET)

BUCCANEERS WR MIKE EVANS OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-105)
BUCCANEERS WR MIKE EVANS OVER 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)
I do not understand why these sportsbooks don’t adjust these props when it comes to Mike Evans. All this dude does is produce but his lines are consistently misplaced. I should not complain because he’s been one of my biggest winners all season long. The catch prop may be a bit sketchy being that he hasn’t had more than 6 catches in any game this season but the yardage is way too low. He has been over 80 yards in 3 of his last 4 including a monster week against the Titans last week. San Francisco is basically middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the pass, which I don’t think people realize.

49ERS QB BROCK PURDY OVER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (-125)
The way to attack the Buccaneers is through the air, they allow the 2nd most passing yards per game in the NFL. The 49ers are healthy, they’ve got all of their weapons back at the disposal of Brock Purdy in this game. He looks like a completely different quarterback when he’s got all of his guys around him. Tampa Bay has allowed 3 of the last 5 quarterbacks they’ve faced to toss 2 or more touchdowns.

JETS @ BILLS (4:25p ET)

JETS QB ZACH WILSON OVER 32.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-105)
If you’ve been reading my articles consistently, you know how much I love this prop and it just keeps winning. It has only gone up one in the last 3 weeks. He has passed the ball 36-39-26-33-36-49-39 over his last 7 games. I don’t understand why they are putting the game in his hands so much when they’ve got a running back like Breece Hall but that’s what they choose to do. Once again, I feel like they will be trailing and that means he’ll have to try to throw them back into it and rack up the pass attempts in the second half.

JETS RB BREECE HALL OVER 24.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I truly love this kid’s ability and wish they used him more but here we are. I don’t even understand why they even have Dalvin Cook on this roster taking touches away from him. He has been over this receiving prop in 3 of his last 4 games. The part I really like is that he’s had at least 3 catches in his last 6 games which means he’s a regular part of this passing attack, it isn’t just a flukey thing. The Bills have been susceptible to the pass catching back allowing 8 running backs over the last 8 weeks to go over this receiving total. I feel like this one is a no-brainer.