Blue Rated Wideouts Week 16 2023

The volatile scoring nature of the wide receiver position may cause more start-sit headaches for fantasy managers than any other position, but when things go well wide receivers can post point totals capable of winning fantasy games.

How does one know which wide receivers are capable of posting those game-winning point totals? My player grading system (a full version of which can be found at TheFootballScientist.com) aims to identify these players via an overall/upside/downside approach. A player’s overall grade measures his likely performance, the downside the grade indicates how a player is apt to fare if things go poorly for him that week, and the upside grade measures the scoring ceiling of a player if things go well in a given contest.

This grading system also uses five color-coded categories: blue (indicating someone who can post elite point totals), green (a strong starter), yellow (a solid backup or a potential starter in bye weeks or deep leagues), orange (a desperation play), and red (someone who should not be started).

This means fantasy managers who are looking for big scoring potential at wide receiver should aim for someone who has a blue-rated upside grade (which is 90-100 in my system). This weekly article series will identify all the blue-rated upside wideouts in a given week and then provide details on a few of the unexpected candidates on this board. It will also detail the strength of the matchup each of these receivers is facing via a matchup points total of 1-100, with 100 being most favorable.

Week 16 wide receviers with "Blue-Rated" upside

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay

Godwin’s 25.5 PPR point total last week looks like an outlier when compared to the rest of his season, but this week may see a repeat of that performance. The key is Godwin’s matchup point total, which is tied for the highest among wide receivers in Week 16. Jacksonville has abysmal deep coverage metrics, and the Jaguars secondary is also banged-up. That means Godwin could face Tre Herndon, who has a 13.5 YPT over the past four weeks (per Stathead) or his backup, but regardless of who Godwin faces, it should be a favorable matchup that warrants making sure Godwin is in all fantasy lineups.

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

The Commanders have by far the worst defense in the league over the past month, and that carries over to the Washington secondary. Wilson is apt to face Benjamin St-Juste in coverage, a plus matchup given St-Juste’s 10.6 PPR PPG allowed in the past four weeks, but every other Washington secondary defender has allowed a 9.3 or higher YPT in that span, so it really shouldn’t matter who Wilson faces. What matters is those matchups open the door to put him into fantasy lineups even with the Jets QB issues.

DJ Moore, Chicago

Last week ended a three-game streak with 22+ PPR points for Moore, but a matchup against Cardinals cornerback Starling Thomas should be a big help this week. Thomas has given up an 87.5 percent completion rate, 12.0 YPT, and 14.3 PPR PPG in the two games he has played in over the past four weeks. With a matchup of that caliber, or versus multiple other coverage liabilities in the Arizona secondary, Moore can post another 20+ PPR point day in a fantasy semifinal matchup.