Blue Rated Wideouts Week 13 2023

The volatile scoring nature of the wide receiver position may cause more start-sit headaches for fantasy managers than any other position, but when things go well wide receivers can post point totals capable of winning fantasy games.

How does one know which wide receivers are capable of posting those game-winning point totals? My player grading system (a full version of which can be found at TheFootballScientist.com) aims to identify these players via an overall/upside/downside approach. A player’s overall grade measures his likely performance, the downside the grade indicates how a player is apt to fare if things go poorly for him that week, and the upside grade measures the scoring ceiling of a player if things go well in a given contest.

This grading system also uses five color-coded categories: blue (indicating someone who can post elite point totals), green (a strong starter), yellow (a solid backup or a potential starter in bye weeks or deep leagues), orange (a desperation play), and red (someone who should not be started).

This means fantasy managers who are looking for big scoring potential at wide receiver should aim for someone who has a blue-rated upside grade (which is 90-100 in my system). This weekly article series will identify all the blue-rated upside wideouts in a given week and then provide details on a few of the unexpected candidates on this board. It will also detail the strength of the matchup each of these receivers is facing via a matchup points total of 1-100, with 100 being most favorable.

Week 13 Wide Receivers with blue-rated upside

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco

These two will both be in most starting lineups this week no matter what, as the 49ers-Eagles game could be highest scoring contest in Week 13, but there are still some question marks about these two.

In the case of Samuel, he often has to rely on rushing points to post a quality point total, but that probably won’t be the case in this matchup since he could spend a lot of time facing Darius Slay in coverage. Slay is talented but he also gets targeted a lot and that’s why he has allowed 9.5 PPR PPG since Week 9 (per Stathead). Samuel will see a lot of targets because of that, and that’s why this game could see him post more receiving fantasy points than rushing.

Aiyuk has posted strong numbers of late but has topped the 16-PPR point bar only once in the past seven games. A matchup against James Bradberry should change that, as Bradberry has allowed 12.9 PPR PPG over the past four weeks.

Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville

Ridley has a track record of being a boom-or-bust player, but right now he’s in boom mode, as Ridley has scored 53 PPR points over the past two games.

The Bengals matchup this week could keep that trend going, as Ridley will face Cam Taylor-Britt or Chidobe Awuzie most often in coverage (dependent on Taylor-Britt’s injury status). Either of those can be considered a favorable matchup, as Taylor-Britt has given up 10.0 PPR PPG since Week 9, while Awuzie has a 12.1 PPR PPG mark in that span, so get Ridley into lineups.

Courtland Sutton, Denver

Sutton had a five-game streak with 10+ PPR points ended last week, as he tallied only 9.1 PPR points against a very strong Cleveland secondary.

He should be able to get that double-digit scoring streak going again versus Houston. Sutton may spend much of his day facing Derek Stingley Jr. in coverage, which is a not unfavorable matchup since Stingley has allowed 8.8 PPR PPG since Week 9, but the Texans also have some of the worst deep pass coverage metrics in that time frame. It’s a strong enough factor to get Sutton into lineups, if only as a flex or WR3 candidate, as there is upside potential to be found here.