Blue Rated Wideouts Week 11 2023

The volatile scoring nature of the wide receiver position may cause more start-sit headaches for fantasy managers than any other position, but when things go well wide receivers can post point totals capable of winning fantasy games.

How does one know which wide receivers are capable of posting those game-winning point totals? My player grading system (a full version of which can be found at TheFootballScientist.com) aims to identify these players via an overall/upside/downside approach. A player’s overall grade measures his likely performance, the downside the grade indicates how a player is apt to fare if things go poorly for him that week, and the upside grade measures the scoring ceiling of a player if things go well in a given contest.

This grading system also uses five color-coded categories: blue (indicating someone who can post elite point totals), green (a strong starter), yellow (a solid backup or a potential starter in bye weeks or deep leagues), orange (a desperation play), and red (someone who should not be started).

This means fantasy managers who are looking for big scoring potential at wide receiver should aim for someone who has a blue-rated upside grade (which is 90-100 in my system). This weekly article series will identify all the blue-rated upside wideouts in a given week and then provide details on a few of the unexpected candidates on this board. It will also detail the strength of the matchup each of these receivers is facing via a matchup points total of 1-100, with 100 being most favorable.


Week 11 wide receivers with blue-rated upside

 

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

The Buffalo defense has been among the best in the past few seasons, but that hasn’t been the case this year, especially when it comes to the Bills secondary. That could be a boon to Wilson since he is likely going to face Christian Benford in coverage, at least as long as Benford is able to fight through a hamstring injury.

Benford has allowed 8.7 yards per target and a 107.4 passer rating this season (per Stathead), which are numbers that would be helpful to Wilson, but if Benford can’t go, then Wilson could have an even more favorable matchup against Rasul Douglas. Whichever way it goes, Wilson has scored 17+ PPR points in three of his last four games and should add to that trend in this matchup.

Deebo Samuel, Tampa Bay

Samuel had a quiet return last week at Jacksonville, as he caught only four passes and gained only 30 receiving yards. That didn’t crush his fantasy value, as Samuel added 29 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, but it does add some Week 11 start concerns for his fantasy managers.

Those concerns should be allayed due to a matchup against Carlton Davis III. Davis has allowed 21.4 PPR PPG since Week 7 and may still be dealing with the impact of a toe injury. The Buccaneers cornerback depth chart is shaky behind Davis (which is part of why Houston had so much success against Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago), so Samuel should have a favorable matchup no matter who ends up starting.

It means Samuel’s pass numbers should start to match his rush numbers and indicates he is someone to get into lineups this week.

Courtland Sutton, Denver

This is another instance where a receiver may end up facing either a struggling, banged up starting cornerback or a backup, as Sutton is slated to square off against Vikings cornerback Akayleb Evans. That is a plus matchup for Sutton, as Evans has allowed 11.7 PPR PPG since Week 7. It’s possible Sutton could also see Byron Murphy in coverage, which would be an even bigger plus since Murphy has given up 23.7 PPR PPG in that same span.

This means Sutton shouldn’t be so TD dependent to get his fantasy points this week and since he’s scored a TD in seven out of nine games this season, he’s a powerhouse start if he also finds the end zone again.



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