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quick reference guide for your drafts this weekend 2023 Update each week
|Tight Ends Tiers|
Tight End Draft Strategy
I'm going to explain why people are drafting Travis Kelce in the first round and whether you should consider doing the same in 2023.
Over the last three years, Travis Kelce has consistently dominated the tight end position, creating a significant gap between him as Tight End 1 and the rest of the field in two out of those three years. For instance, in 2022, he outperformed Tight End 2 by a fantasy PPR value of 103 points difference (tier). Similarly, in 2020, the difference between TE1 and TE2 was a whopping 151 PPR fantasy points.
These substantial gaps between Kelce and other tight ends indicate a significant advantage in terms of fantasy production. To support these stats further, it's worth noting that 48% of people who drafted Travis Kelce in 2022 finished in the top three of their fantasy leagues. This suggests that having Kelce on your roster provides a considerable competitive edge.
Considering these factors, if you believe that Travis Kelce will maintain a large gap between himself and the second-best tight end in 2023, then drafting him in the first round makes a strong argument. His consistent high-level performance can be a game-changer for your fantasy team. However, if you have doubts about his ability to repeat this feat in the upcoming season, you may opt to let him go in the first round and hope he comes back to you in the second round. The decision on where to draft Kelce ultimately depends on your league's rules and setup, as well as your confidence in his potential performance for the year ahead.
Bob Harris, a well-known fantasy expert, advised against drafting last year's fantasy team. He also cautioned against blindly following popular trends in early drafts. Instead, he emphasized the importance of analyzing the data objectively and making independent decisions.
If we examine the data, we find that in 2021, Travis Kelce was the number two Tight End, indicating a notable variation in his performance over the three years discussed. This suggests that his performance may not be consistent or straightforward.
In summary, fantasy football decisions should not be approached in a black and white manner. Taking into account Harris's advice, it is crucial to avoid relying solely on past performances and trends. Instead, one should objectively assess the data, clear their mind of biases, and make well-informed decisions based on the available information.
Personally if I'm in the bottom for draft slots and Kelce is still there, I'm in a taken in the majority of my drafts. I believe if you draft in a number of leagues it's good to diversify and that would include taking Kelsey in the first round.
Strategic Targeting Of ADP Mapping (STOMP)
To increase your chances of winning your fantasy leagues, you have to come up with a set of sleepers and longshots that you target in your drafts. You have to have confidence in a number of your sleepers to allow you to take other players or positions higher up in the early rounds rounds of your drafts. If you just follow the ADP in my opinion. Put yourself in the middle-of-the-road in your league. My theory is take some risks and if you're going to finish in the top three were in a finish in the bottom three - but at least you're giving yourself a chance to win.
To improve your chances of winning your fantasy leagues, it's essential to identify a set of sleepers and longshots that you can target in your drafts. Having confidence in these undervalued players allows you to prioritize other players or positions in the early rounds. Simply following the Average Draft Position (ADP) may result in a mediocre team, so taking calculated risks becomes crucial.
By taking chances on potential breakout players, you position yourself in the middle ground between league success and disappointment. Embracing this approach gives you a chance to finish in the top three and contend for the championship, rather than settling for a middle-of-the-road result. While there is a risk of finishing lower in the standings, at least you are giving yourself a shot at winning and potentially excelling in your fantasy league.
2022 Top Running Quarterbacks
Quarterback Draft Strategy
First off let's start with the top tier a quarterback. This would be the top three quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. If you want one of these three quarterbacks and 2023 you are going to have to spend a lot of capital to get one. In doing so you have to think about sleepers at the running back, receiver and tight end positions to help you recover some of that draft capital. If you don't feel comfortable this particular year with sleepers at those three positions, you may have to reconsider taking one of the top three quarterbacks. Typically leagues start one quarterback which gives you an opportunity to find sleepers in later rounds. One of my favorite quarterback sleepers this year is Justin Fields. Currently Fields ADP is the seventh quarterback being taken late in the sixth round in low stake leagues. As you check out the table of Running Quarterbacks, Fields was the top running quarterback last year. We certainly shouldn't expect those lofty rushing numbers to repeat but hopefully he'll still be an above average running quarterback and hopefully improve on his passing proficiency.
I personally love running quarterbacks - it is just frosting on the cake. I believe Fields can be a top-five quarterback in 2023 or better and you can get him in the sixth round - that works for me. Let's assume I target Fields in the top of the sixth round, that gives me an open draft spot in the first, second or third rounds where I would've had to take one of the top three quarterbacks. So now I can take a top receiver, running back or even tight end and if they pan out I'm ahead of the game. This is how I look at things as far as your sleepers give you a quality player if your prediction turns out where you then can take another position in the earlier rounds who is more of a secure pick.
Another intriguing quarterback is Lamar Jackson who was the number one fantasy quarterback in 2019. Yes, that was a few years ago and in the last two years he missed five games each year due to nagging injuries. With the new contract under his belt and the addition of Odell Beckham and rookie Zay Flowers, I got a feeling that Jackson is going to be much more comfortable this year. And don't forget new offensive coordinator Todd Monkey. Only problem is Jackson's ADP is the fifth quarterback and is being drafted in the late fifth round. So Jackson is not a draft day steel as you'll have to pay some draft capital but it may be worth it.
Here's an even riskier quarterback who has an excellent past yet looked horrible last year and that is Deshaun Watson. Between 2018 and 2020 Deshaun was a top three to five fantasy quarterback. Over those three years Watson averaged five rushing touchdowns each year and over 400 rushing yards. Oh yeah, frosting on the cake!
Watson ADP is the 11th QB and is going in the bottom of the ninth round. So you can leverage Watson as a much greater value however the risk is higher.