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quick reference guide for your drafts this weekend 2022 UPDATED
Here's a quick reference guide for your drafts this weekend. I am using high-stakes ADP and my analysis.
1. When to Draft Running Backs
A solid draft strategy is to draft two running backs within the first 30 running backs taken. The number of starting-running backs is limited compared to wide receivers. You can see in the graph the slope of running back scoring value reduces more quickly compared to wide receiver scoring. If you wait too long, your chance of getting two quality starting running backs reduces unless you have a sleeper RB you believe in and can take later in your draft.
Typically the top-30 running backs go by the mid-sixth round and this can vary from draft to draft. So, it's a good plan to try and get at least one if not two running backs within this timeframe. Remember it's better to count players not rounds. Your draft can be quite different than the average draft - so you need to count how many running backs are going and adjust your draft strategy accordingly.
Checkout the middle to late round section below.
Brian Robinson jr. pretty much was set as the No. 1 RB for Washington until he was shot in an apparent carjacking. He, fortunately, didn’t sustain any life-threating injuries and appears on the road to recovery which includes returning to play sooner than later. When should you draft him?! His ADP is unpredictable now. The Commanders allegedly placed Robinson on the non-football injury list which will keep hm out of at least the first four games of the season. If you are in leagues that have six or more teams making the playoffs, drafting Robinson in the middle rounds is more plausible.
Houston’s Dameon Pierce has been showing well and in the Thursday night’s game against the 49ers he ran six times for 37 yards and a score with no receiving targets. He is looking like the possible starting RB for the Texans. Our staff rankings have him currently at RB30 – low stakes ADP of 34 and high-stakes ADP of 27. These are big moves, and you will have to raise your draft stakes to acquire him.
With the injury to Seattle’s Kenneth Walker III, Rashaad Penny should get the week 1 start vs Denver at home Monday night. Penny’s high-stakes ADP is 32 and low-stakes ADP is 28. ESPN ADP: 35. Drafters are Leary of Penny so he may fall to an acceptable draft round.
I understand but I don’t understand when a guy like Kansas City’s Isiah Pacheco is drafted in the late seventh round and then looks so good in preseason! His ADP is rocketing – high stakes ADP 36, low-stakes ADP below 65 and ESPN ADP 52. It is going to be hard to keep him from getting a decent amount of touches the way he has played. Yes, it is yet to be determined if he will get enough to be a fantasy contributor. However, Pacheco is a “sleeper” on a very high-scoring team! Definitely worth considering!
Considering Christian McCaffrey has missed more games than he has played the last two years, due to injuries, picking up D'Onta Foreman (ADP 60) who played well last year for the Titans when Derrick Henry was out. You can get Foreman late in your draft whether you are handcuffing or just filling your roster with a guy who could have value.
2. When to Draft Tight Ends
If you're set on drafting one of the top-5 tight ends (Travis Kelce, Mark Andrew, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller or George Kittle) you're going to have to act quickly - but not as quickly as the last two years. Kelce is going in the middle of the second rounds and Andrews is going in the middle of the second round. Kyle Pitts ADP is early fourth round. Then there is a bit of a level - Kittle is going in the late 6th and Waller has fallen to the early seventh, probably because of Devanta Adams. In the past, there was a level after the first three tight ends. Now we have four of five tight ends at the top level.
When you do draft a tight end high, you will have to make up for it by drafting a quality running back or wide receiver that you could've taken instead. This means before you draft you need to find a sleeper / undervalued player that you believe you can take in the fifth, sixth, or seventh round that could end up being an RB2 or WR2.
If you really don't have a sleeper strategy that you believe will give you an upside player, then you may want to consider taking one of the many undervalued Tight Ends you can get later in the draft like Dallas Goedert (ADP:10.01) And Zach Ertz (ADP:10.01). Let's not forget about the potential Dalton Schultz with an ADP of late 7th round. Dak Prescott has to make up for the free agent loss of Amari Cooper targets. An interesting later-round Tight End is Robert Tonyan (GB) and Cole Kmet (CHI). Tonyan's ADP is 19th round and Kmet's ADP is 12th round.
If you have a deep league where you may draft two tight ends. There are a lot of potentially high-quality Tight Ends in this year's draft so don't think you have to take Travis Kelce to win your league. But if you have multiple leagues, I would go for an early tight end at least 25 percent of the time.
3. When to Draft your Quarterback
As most leagues start one quarterback, this position gives you the most flexible draft strategies. This year there is not a quick drop-off at QB. You get nice potential with the top six-ish ranked QBs. In 10-team leagues with a short starting lineup such as two running backs and two wide receivers, I believe it is very tempting to take one of these top quarterbacks. Especially if the league is non-PPR or maybe half PPR. In leagues with roster sizes such as 18 to 20 players that are 12 team with more starting wide receivers and perhaps a flex, you could avoid the top four quarterbacks and have significant options late in your draft.
With only one starting QB in most leagues there are so many starting quarterback options. QBs ranked between 10 to 15 offer great potential this year. Any of these quarterbacks could end up being a top-six quarterback, giving you excellent quality at that position and having to give up only a middle to late-round pick. Typically, what we do is in these deeper leagues with 18 to 20 roster players - we like to take two quarterbacks fairly close together. Waiting as long as we can and then snagging two to give yourself extra probability of ending up with a top eight fantasy quarterback. And Derek Carr with an ADP of 15 is a nice sleeper QB.
Quarterbacks like Trey Lance, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins fit the 10 to 15 bill. Trey Lance has a high sealing with his running ability and a bit of a low floor.
There are many quality second QBs who have the potential to be top-12 performers. Trevor Lawrence is going as QB 16 in high-stakes leagues and below him are many with good potential after him like Tua Tagovailoa(17th ADP) and Jameis Winston (19th ADP).
Maybe you want to be very radical, and you could take QB ranked below 14th as your number one quarterback and use all those earlier picks to beef up the rest of your skill positions. I personally prefer taking perhaps a risky quarterback like Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins (17th ADP) and then taking Tua Tagovailoa or one in the above paragraph later in your draft to give yourself a better probability of getting a high-performing quarterback.
These QB strategies can give you some flexibility as the draft flows. If players that you didn't think would be around in the early to middle rounds are available, this gives you a chance to take them and then you can use your late round quarterback strategy to allow you to do this. Take these players and then go late in your draft to get your quarterback could really give you a winning team.
4. Wide Receivers?
So, what we've done here is laid out different plans for quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends. So, what about wide receivers? Well, what we've done here is given you the ability to take receivers early and often as the draft progresses.
5. Middle to Late Round Flyers
Arizona’s Rondale Moore has a chance to take some of the 103 lost targets when Christian Kirk left for Jacksonville via free agency. Moore had some good games in his rookie campaign but was often injured and missed the last three games of 2021.
Sleepers are hard to find, and Moore’s High-stakes ADP is 53 among wideouts – basically being drafted around the 10th round. ESPN ADP of 66 and an ADP of 56 in Low-stakes leagues. He is definitely worth considering in your drafts.
When you approach the middle to late rounds there are many players of all skill positions that you need to consider. There's always value at the end of the draft and you shouldn't the frustrated when you get to this point. You need to have a plan for these late-round players before your draft starts.
These wideouts like Darnell Mooney (30th ADP), Rashod Bateman (31st ADP), Adam Thielen (35th ADP), Christian Kirk (42nd ADP) are good middle-rounders. And later round longshots like D.J. Chark (53nd ADP), Nico Collins (58th ADP), Romeo Doubs (65th ADP), Mecole Hardman (67th ADP) and Curtis Samuel (86th ADP).