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Blue Rated Wideouts Week 11 2022
The volatile scoring nature of the wide receiver position may cause more start-sit headaches for fantasy managers than any other position, but when things go well wide receivers can post point totals capable of winning fantasy games.
How does one know which wide receivers are capable of posting those game-winning point totals? My player grading system (a full version of which can be found at TheFootballScientist.com) aims to identify these players via an overall/upside/downside approach. A player's overall grade measures his likely performance, the downside the grade indicates how a player is apt to fare if things go poorly for him that week, and the upside grade measures the scoring ceiling of a player if things go well in a given contest.
This grading system also uses five color-coded categories: blue (indicating someone who can post elite point totals), green (a strong starter), yellow (a solid backup or a potential starter in bye weeks or deep leagues), orange (a desperation play), and red (someone who should not be started).
This means fantasy managers who are looking for big scoring potential at wide receiver should aim for someone who has a blue-rated upside grade (which is 90-100 in my system). This weekly article series will identify all the blue-rated upside wideouts in a given week and then provide details on a few of the unexpected candidates on this board. It will also detail the strength of the matchup each of these receivers is facing via a matchup points total of 1-100, with 100 being most favorable.
Week 11 wide receivers with blue-rated upside
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas
Lamb had a great game last week, but that type of high scoring game isn't the type of football Dallas has excelled at this year, as the Cowboys are 1-1 in shootout games (defined as contests where each team scores 24+ points). That may make Dallas aim to slow the game down and potentially return Lamb to his subpar scoring pace of Weeks 5-7 where he scored between 10-12 points every game. Minnesota will have something to say about that, as the Vikings thrive in shootouts (4-0 this year) and thus should be able to keep a high scoring pace going. That should help Lamb avoid the 10-12 point floor, so look for another 20+ PPR point game from him.
Mike Williams, LA Chargers
Williams is on track to return after having posted a full practice on Friday. The lineups indicate that he is apt to face Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie in coverage. That would not be a good thing since McDuffie has strong coverage metrics this year, but the Chargers could move Williams around to get him to face Jaylen Watson, who has allowed 10.0 YPT since Week 7. It will only take one big play versus Watson to slate Williams as a strong starter, so look for this to be a boom game for him.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco
Deebo has been incredibly disappointing of late, having posted fewer than 10 PPR points in each of the past two weeks, but he should get on track on Monday night by facing Cardinals cornerback Marco Wilson in coverage. Wilson has averaged 14.5 yards per completion and 8.0 YPT since Week 7 and has allowed two touchdowns in that span. Samuel should be able to hit a home run in this matchup and when that is added to his gadget ability, it makes it worthwhile to trust him in lineups this week.
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati
Boyd could get his share of targets versus Steelers nickel cornerback Arthur Maulet, who has given up 10.4 yards per target (YPT) since Week 7 (per Pro Football Reference). Add that to Ahkello Witherspoon, Pittsburgh's best cornerback, being out for this game and Boyd should be slotted into all starting lineups.