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Blue Rated Wideouts Week 3 2023
The volatile scoring nature of the wide receiver position may cause more start-sit headaches for fantasy managers than any other position, but when things go well wide receivers can post point totals capable of winning fantasy games.
How does one know which wide receivers are capable of posting those game-winning point totals? My player grading system (a full version of which can be found at TheFootballScientist.com) aims to identify these players via an overall/upside/downside approach. A player's overall grade measures his likely performance, the downside the grade indicates how a player is apt to fare if things go poorly for him that week, and the upside grade measures the scoring ceiling of a player if things go well in a given contest.
This grading system also uses five color-coded categories: blue (indicating someone who can post elite point totals), green (a strong starter), yellow (a solid backup or a potential starter in bye weeks or deep leagues), orange (a desperation play), and red (someone who should not be started).
This means fantasy managers who are looking for big scoring potential at wide receiver should aim for someone who has a blue-rated upside grade (which is 90-100 in my system). This weekly article series will identify all the blue-rated upside wideouts in a given week and then provide details on a few of the unexpected candidates on this board. It will also detail the strength of the matchup each of these receivers is facing via a matchup points total of 1-100, with 100 being most favorable.
This week has a much larger than usual group of blue-rated wide receivers for a variety of reasons ranging from cornerback injuries to wideouts taking a big forward step performance-wise.
Week 3 wide receivers with blue-rated upside
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia
Brown has been a fantasy disappointment so far this season, scoring only 21.8 PPR points over the first two weeks. A likely coverage matchup against Jamel Dean should turn this trajectory around, as per Pro Football Reference, Dean has allowed a 75 percent completion rate and 14.4 yards per target on the eight targets directed his way this year. That matchup has the capacity to vault Brown to 20+ PPR points.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay
Godwin is often used as a slot receiver and that is a matchup that the Buccaneers will want to exploit since the Eagles starting slot cornerback, Avonte Maddox, is out with a pectoral muscle tear. Mario Goodrich replaced Maddox last week and has allowed seven completions on seven targets for 100 yards (11.1 YPT) and a touchdown this year.
It's possible Philadelphia takes another approach to slot coverage, yet the reality is Maddox's departure is but one way this secondary is hurting, so Godwin should break out of his two-game streak of scoring 10 PPR points in a big way.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota
Addison has been a bit of an afterthought in a Vikings offense that has Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson and yet Addison has still scored 16 PPR points in each of his first two NFL games.
This week's matchup against the Chargers has the capacity to be a game with 60+ scoreboard points and may require Addison to be even more heavily featured in this aerial attack. Add in 80 matchup points and it results in Addison being someone who should be started in a very high percentage of leagues.