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DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 11 2022
DIEHARDS - WEEK 11 SUNDAY SLATE
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com
SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 169-177
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 3-14
EAGLES @ COLTS (1:00pm ET)
EAGLES QB JALEN HURTS UNDER 42.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Jalen has not been looking to run the ball, especially not the way he did early in his career. He has been under this rushing total in six of the last seven games. The Colts are actually one of the best teams at stopping rushing quarterbacks allowing just 12 yards per game.
COLTS WR PARRIS CAMPBELL OVER 38.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Now that Matt Ryan is back at the helm of the Colts offense, I feel more confident in Campbell hitting this prop once again. Even with all the drama at quarterback, Campbell has hit this prop in four of his last five games. We assume that Pittman will be blanketed by Slay which would give Campbell more room to operate.
LIONS @ GIANTS (1:00pm ET)
GIANTS QB DANIEL JONES OVER 36.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Jones' rushing totals has been down in three of his last four games but I feel like that'll change in Week 11. Daniel gets a Lions team who is number one in the league in rushing yards allowed to the quarterback position. They allow the second most rushing yards per game in the league. You have to think that the Giants are going to work his designed runs more into the game plan.
GIANTS WR DARIUS SLAYTON OVER 39.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Daniel and Darius have found a connection over his last five games played. He has easily cleared this receiving total in four of those five games. There's no Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay is an afterthought and no real tight end option, Slayton has to be the guy. The Lions allow the sixth most receiving yards to the wide receiver position.
BROWNS @ BILLS (1:00pm ET)
BILLS QB JOSH ALLEN OVER 277.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
BILLS WR GABE DAVIS OVER 54.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
BILLS WR STEFON DIGGS OVER 87.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I put all of these together because they go hand in hand this weekend. I have always felt that Buffalo was built to be an indoor team but play in a cold weather city. They are made to run up and down the field in ideal conditions like they'll have on Sunday. All you have to do is watch the game tape on their first game against the Rams to see proof. Allen has been over this number in three of their last five, Diggs has been over his number in five straight games, and Gabe has been over his total in three of his last five. It's no surprise that every game that Allen has been over his prop, so has Davis. I truly think these three are going to go off in this game especially after last week's disappointment at home.
JETS @ PATRIOTS (1:00pm ET)
JETS WR GARRETT WILSON OVER 53.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
JETS WR GARRETT WILSON OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-110)
The Jets have realized that they will not be able to pound the ball on the ground like they were early in the season with Breece Hall. Over the last two games, they have opened things up a bit for Zach Wilson and that has led to Garrett Wilson reaping the rewards. In their first meeting with the Patriots just two weeks ago, he caught six passes for 115 yards. The only fear would be that Belichick schemes him out of the game and forces the Jets to find someone else to carry the load.
PATRIOTS WR JAKOBI MEYERS OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (+120)
I really like this bet. Meyers has always been a volume receiver despite his slow start to this season. He has been over this number in back to back games including their last games against the Jets two weeks ago. Jakobi had nine catches in that first win in New York.
BEARS @ FALCONS (1:00pm ET)
BEARS TE COLE KMET OVER 28.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
BEARS TE COLE KMET ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER (+170)
It's really hard to ignore this number. He has been over this receiving prop in three of his last four games. Justin Fields has found his favorite target especially in the red zone. The Falcons are allowing the sixth most receiving yards per game to the tight end position. He has caught five touchdowns in the last three games.
BEARS RB DAVID MONTGOMERY OVER 66.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
Montgomery will be the whole show in Week 11. Khalil Herbert put on IR this week which gives David to carry the load. The Falcons allow 99 yards per game on the ground to the running back position. He can still get the job done as the lead back in this offense and with Justin Fields in at the helm, that'll only help hit this prop.
FALCONS WR DRAKE LONDON UNDER 40.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
FALCONS TE KYLE PITTS UNDER 37.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
You cannot trust anyone in the Falcons passing game. Marcus Mariota is terrible at playing the quarterback position and it has punished Drake London and Kyle Pitts this season. London has been under this receiving number in his last seven games. He got in the end zone last week but did not cover this number. Pitts has been under his receiving number in seven of his nine games played this season. The Falcons don't trust Mariota to throw the ball which is why they run the ball so much and keep Pitts on the line to block.
PANTHERS @ RAVENS (1:00pm ET)
PANTHERS RB DO'NTA FOREMAN UNDER 56.5 RUSHING YARDS (+100)
The Ravens defense has done a complete 180 over the last 3-4 games of the season. It helps that they traded for one of the best linebackers in the game, Roquan Smith and got back one of their top defenders, Tyus Bowser. Foreman has had two huge games against a terrible Falcons run defense but Baltimore is a totally different experience. They only allow 76 yards per game to the running back position on the season and only 58 yards over their last three. I think the Ravens get up in this game which will game script him out.
PANTHERS WR TERRACE MARSHALL OVER 32.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Marshall has been over this receiving total in three straight games. While Baker Mayfield is at the helm this weekend, I don't think that impacts Marshall's target share, actually I think it increases. I don't think the Panthers run the ball as much with Baker under center. The Ravens struggle more against the pass allowing 190 yards per game to the wide receiver position.
COMMANDERS @ TEXANS (1:00pm ET)
COMMANDERS RB BRIAN ROBINSON OVER 64.5 RUSHING YARDS (-125)
COMMANDERS RB BRIAN ROBINSON ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER (+125)
Everyone should know by now how bad the Texans are against the run this season. It seems like every back in the league that gets to face them goes off for a new career high. They are last in the league in basically every rush defense category. I will say again, Brian Robinson does not flash, he grinds it out three yards and a cloud of dust type back. He can take a hit, not drop the ball and carry the load for you though. He had 26 carries in Washington's surprising win over the Eagles on Monday night. I expect more of that from the Commanders in Week 11.
TEXANS RB DAMEON PIERCE UNDER 79.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
It's basically the complete opposite when it comes to the Commanders defense. They are one of the toughest teams in the league to run on and that's all the Texans do. Everything in their offense runs through Pierce. The one Top 5 rush defense he's played in the last six weeks is the Titans and they held him to just 35 yards. The Commanders allow just 83 yards per game on the ground to the running back spot.
RAMS @ SAINTS (1:00pm ET)
SGP SPECIAL (+120)
Chris Olave OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards
Alvin Kamara OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards
I didn't love the numbers for either of these guys but I wanted to get a piece of them in this matchup. Olave has been over this total in three of his last four while Kamara has been over his in five of his last six. The Rams have struggled all over the field.
RAIDERS @ BRONCOS (4:05pm ET)
BRONCOS QB RUSSELL WILSON OVER 1.5 PASSING TDs (+115)
BRONCOS QB RUSSELL WILSON OVER 225.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
While Russell didn't get that second touchdown last week like I hoped, he had nearly 300 yards passing. He gets another bad defense in Week 11 in the form of the Las Vegas Raiders. They are bottom 10 in the league in both passing and receiving yards allowed on the season. They need this win at home against a team that's falling apart at the seams.
RAIDERS WR DAVANTE ADAMS UNDER 75.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
After two monster weeks in a row from Davante Adams, I think that comes crashing down in Week 11 against this Broncos secondary. Patrick Surtain II has become a legit shutdown corner in this league. Denver as a whole allows just 112 yards per game from the wide receiver position. They are going to make Carr throw the ball to anyone but Adams.
COWBOYS @ VIKINGS (4:25pm ET)
VIKINGS T.J. HOCKENSON UNDER 44.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
VIKINGS T.J. HOCKENSON OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (+110)
While I know these two bets sort of contradict each other, there is a method to my madness. He has been targeted a ton by Kirk Cousins but the passes have been short. He had seven catches in last week's win but only for 45 yards. The Cowboys are one of the best teams in the league against their opponent's tight end. He had nine catches in his first game with the team but only put up 70 yards. I think he ends up with 5 catches for 38 yards in this game.
COWBOYS WR CEEDEE LAMB OVER 77.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
The Vikings are 8-1 on the season but their defense is definitely a liability. The defense allows the second most receiving yards to the wide receiver position. CeeDee Lamb had his best game of the season against the Packers with 150 yards and two touchdowns. He should have no problems against this Minnesota secondary and they are going to need him.
BENGALS @ STEELERS (4:25pm ET)
STEELERS QB KENNY PICKETT OVER 28.5 RUSHING YARDS (+100)
The run game is not working with Najee Harris but it has with Kenny Pickett. He has been over this rushing total in back to back games. The Steelers need a run game to keep their offense moving. He is not the most fleet of foot but he can get out of the pocket when needed.
BENGALS WR TYLER BOYD OVER 53.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
While Boyd has been under this total in back to back games since losing Ja'Marr Chase to injury. This is his best matchup against the Steelers. They rank second worst in the league against the wide receiver position allowing nearly 200 yards per game. Most of the attention will be put on Mixon and Higgins which should leave Boyd to have a day.