Diehards Sunday Prop Bets Week 12 2023

DIEHARDS - WEEK 12 - SUNDAY SLATE

Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com (@DrewPhelps05)
All Props Based off DraftKings Odds

SINGLE PROP 2023 REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

WEEK 12: 3-5
OVERALL: 151-169

JAGUARS @ TEXANS (1:00p ET)

TEXANS QB C.J. STROUD OVER 36.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-105)
TEXANS QB C.J. STROUD OVER 272.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

I’m done doubting this dude, he’s the real deal. The Panthers are going to be kicking themselves for a long time after picking Bryce Young over this guy. He’s thrown the ball at least 37 times and passed for over 300 yards in his last 3 games. Houston will have to throw to beat this Jaguars team, they are very hard to run on but susceptible through the air. They allow the 4th most passing yards per game at 254 yards. If you throw out their games against rookie Will Levis and bum ass Kenny Pickett, they’ve allowed 295 passing yards or more in 4 straight.

STEELERS @ BENGALS (1:00p ET)

STEELERS RB JAYLEN WARREN OVER 48.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)

I don’t know if he’s officially taken over as the number one back in Pittsburgh but he’s playing like it. He has increased his per game yardage total in each of the last three games. Yes his performances of 88, 101, and 129 were against defenses that aren’t great against the run but neither are the Bengals. They are allowing nearly 140 yards per game on the ground on the season. This kid is making the most of his opportunities and I don’t see that changing anytime soon because Kenny Pickett sucks.

PANTHERS @ TITANS (1:00p ET)

PANTHERS RB MILES SANDERS OVER 26.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

When Sanders went down with the injury, it seemed like Chuba Hubbard had taken his starting running back spot but last week they basically split carries with Sanders. Miles actually got one more carry than Chuba. If he gets 10+ carries once again this week against the Titans, he’ll easily clear this low threshold. This number is just too low for a guy likely to get that workload.

PANTHERS QB BRYCE YOUNG OVER 201.5 PASSING YARDS (-130)

This dude just looks overwhelmed out there. He looks like the little kid who wanted to play with his older brothers and he’s getting schooled every week. He has been under 200 yards passing in 3 straight games and those opponents were not exactly world beaters when it comes to stopping the pass. He looks at one guy every single time he drops (Adam Thielen - 11 targets last week) back and if he’s not there, he dumps it off to a back or runs with it. The Titans kept the awful Kenny Pickett to under 200 yards passing a few weeks ago. I think they are on the same level as far as skill.

BUCCANEERS @ COLTS (1:00p ET)

BUCCANEERS RB RACHAAD WHITE OVER 29.5 RECEIVING YARDS (+100)

Week 11 broke a streak of 4 straight games over this prop number and he only missed it by 2 yards. He is a consistent treat out of the backfield for Baker Mayfield, nice safety valve for him when he’s in trouble. The Colts are bottom 10 in the league when it comes to receiving yards per game to the running back at 38.9. He has caught at least 4 passes in 4 of his last 5, that kind of volume should easily put him over that number.

COLTS WR MICHAEL PITTMAN JR OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (+110)

I love this bet. The Buccaneers allow the second most receiving yards in the league on a per game basis. He has been over this prop number in 4 of his last 5 and 7 of his 10 games played this season. He is easily the most targeted wide receiver on the team at 98 on the season, 38 more than the next closest player. Michael had 12 in his last game. They are also coming off the bye which should have him feeling rested and licking his chops for this matchup.

PATRIOTS @ GIANTS (1:00p ET)

GIANTS RB SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 21.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

As long as Tommy DeVito remains the starting quarterback of this team, I’m going to ride this prop every single week. Everything is running through Saquon with the rookie at the helm of the offense. He has been over this prop number in 2 of his last 3 games. The Patriots are bottom 12 in the league when it comes to stopping receiving running backs, they allow 35.7 yards per game through the air. They have allowed a running back to hit this prop in 3 of their last 5 games.

SAINTS @ FALCONS (1:00p ET)

SAINTS WR A.T. PERRY OVER 21.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Michael Thomas is on IR which opens up playing time for the rookie 6th rounder out of Wake Forest. He caught his first NFL touchdown last week against the Vikings. Atlanta has one of the better secondaries in the NFL but they will be focused on Chris Olave and containing the deep ball from Rashid Shaheed. I feel like he’ll get forgotten about in the mix of this offense.

BROWNS @ BRONCOS (4:05p ET)

BRONCOS WR COURTLAND SUTTON OVER 43.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

He has been as consistent as they come for Russell Wilson especially over the last 5 games. The team is finally starting to click especially on offense. He has a touchdown catch in 7 of his last 8 games. Sutton has been over this receiving prop in 4 of their last 5 games. I know the Browns are very good on defense especially against the pass but if you look at their last 3 opponents, they are all not known for their passing attacks. Their numbers are really getting altered because of the lack of competition. Anyone that gets to play Kenny Pickett twice is going to look fantastic. This is such a low threshold, I think Sutton gets there with ease tomorrow.

BROWNS RB KAREEM HUNT OVER 39.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)

It’s so hard to gauge this Cleveland rushing attack at the moment. Every time I think one of these backs is taking the lead role, the other one has a good game. They had the exact same amount of touches last week with the new quarterback under center. Cleveland has to flow their offense through the running game with Thompson-Robinson at the helm, he can’t do this by himself. I believe Hunt will do some damage against this Broncos defense which allows 160 yards per game on the ground.

RAMS @ CARDINALS (4:05p ET)

RAMS RB KYREN WILLIAMS OVER 59.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

I believe that this will be a Kyren Williams game. He owned this Cardinals team in Week 6 rushing for 158 yards on 20 carries and a touchdown. I don’t believe he’ll do that again but he could easily get to 60 yards on 15+ carries which I fully expect him to do in this game. The Cardinals allow the 3rd most rushing yards per game to the running back position at 110 yards. Matthew Stafford needs some help from the backfield to keep this offense moving, they cannot be one dimensional.

BILLS @ EAGLES (4:25p ET)

BILLS TE DALTON KINCAID OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+110)

I have already stressed in previous articles the love affair between Josh Allen and Dalton Kincaid. He loves this dude and has almost forgotten about Stefon Diggs. Kincaid has out targeted Diggs in 2 of their last 3 games. He has outgained him in yardage in 3 of their last 5 games. Kincaid has hit this prop in 3 of their last 5 games and while the Eagles aren’t bad against the tight end spot, they allow 5 catches per game to the position. I think he can do one better than that in this one.

EAGLES QB JALEN HURTS OVER 9.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-110)

The reason this prop has been so profitable is because the “Tush Push” or “Brotherly Shove” count as a rush attempt for him and they do that play probably 3-4 times a game at this point. Hurts has been over this number in 3 of their last 4 games and 6 times on the season. He has 9 carries in 2 other games, so he’s right there almost every single game. I wouldn’t touch the yardage because of all the short yardage runs he does.

CHIEFS @ RAIDERS (4:25p ET)

RAIDERS QB AIDEN O’CONNELL OVER 31.5 PASSING ATTEMPTS (-105)

I won on this prop last week and I’m going back to the well this week because it’s a similar situation. They had been running the offense through Josh Jacobs the first two games under Antonio Pierce but they couldn’t do that against the Dolphins last week. They needed to throw the ball to stay in that game and I believe the same thing happens in this one. They will start by trying to run the ball but when the Chiefs get up, they’ll turn the tables to O’Connell’s arm and try to throw their way back into it. He chucked it 41 times last week and the prop didn’t change from last week.

CHIEFS RB ISIAH PACHECO OVER 68.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

I was personally stunned at the way the Chiefs were able to run the ball against the Eagles in Week 11. Pacheco ran hard and early every yard in that one. He gets a much more favorable matchup in Week 12 against the Raiders. They allow 109 yards per game on the ground. Las Vegas has allowed a running back to go over this number in 4 of their last 5 games. This is not the same offense that chucks the ball all over the yard, they are having to win games in different ways and that will be the case in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon.