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DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 10 2022
SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 155-162
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 3-13
SEAHAWKS @ BUCCANEERS (9:30am ET)
SEAHAWKS RB KENNETH WALKER OVER 78.5 RUSHING YARDS (-130)
The rookie has been everything we wanted and more since taking over the lead back role. It's a shame that he got his chance because of an injury to Rashaad Penny but he's run with the opportunity. He has been over this rushing total in four of his last five games. Tampa is not a team that can stop the run anymore. They are allowing 157 yards on the ground per game over their last three. The kid just gets it done every week.
SEAHAWKS WR DK METCALF UNDER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
The Seahawks are winning games and they are doing it on the ground with Kenneth Walker. Metcalf has been under this receiving yards total in four straight games. The deep ball just hasn't been there, his longest catch has been under 20 yards in seven of their nine games this season. The Buccaneers are in the top half of the league in yards allowed to the wide receiver position at just 141 yards.
TEXANS @ GIANTS (1:00pm ET)
GIANTS RB SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 93.5 RUSHING YARDS (-130)
This is the best matchup for any running back in the NFL. The Texans are the absolute worst team in the league at stopping the run. Houston allows 180 yards per game on the ground on the season and 200 plus over their last three. I usually don't like betting something this high but it would be a crime not to take this bet.
HOUSTON TEXANS UNDER 18.5 POINTS SCORED (-110)
The Texans head to New Jersey to face a Giants team coming off of a bye week. They just put up a solid fight against the only undefeated team left in the league but that was at home. Houston is scoring just 16.6 points per game on the season and only 15.5 on the road. The Giants defense has been good this season and allowing under 20 points per game.
JAGUARS @ CHIEFS (1:00pm ET)
JAGUARS RB TRAVIS ETIENNE UNDER 80.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
You may think this is a hot take but he is due for a down game. Travis has been fantastic over his last five games and taken his game to another level over the last two games since taking over as the lead back in Jacksonville. He gets a Chiefs team which is Top 5 in the league at stopping the run. They struggled last week against a bigger back like Derrick Henry but have excelled against smaller shifty backs. They held Austin Ekeler to just 39 yards. They are going to make Trevor Lawrence beat them.
CHIEFS WR JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER OVER 63.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Mahomes and JuJu have found their groove over the last three games. Smith-Schuster has averaged 108 yards receiving over Kansas City's last three games. The Jaguars are middle of the pack when it comes to pass defense, but they haven't faced the likes of Patrick Mahomes in weeks. I'm going to ride the hot hand and hope the connection continues between these two.
BROWNS @ DOLPHINS (1:00pm ET)
BROWNS WR AMARI COOPER 63.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
BROWNS QB JACOBY BRISSETT OVER 227.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
While Amari has had some inconsistency this season, he's the go to guy for Brissett and even more so with David Njoku out of the lineup once again. Cooper has been over this receiving total in three of his last four games. Jacoby has been over this passing total in five straight games. He's played better than most anyone would give him credit. Miami is in the bottom half of the league when it comes to pass defense. I expect the Dolphins to score a lot which will force the Browns to throw the ball.
BROWNS RB NICK CHUBB OVER 77.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Did anyone see what the Bears did against this Dolphins defense last week? Justin Fields ran wild against them. They've allowed 143 rushing yards per game over their last three. Nick Chubb is the best pure runner in the NFL and I don't think there's much of a debate. He's been over this rushing total in seven of the Browns eight games this season. Basically anytime his rushing prop is under 80 yards, I'm going to jump all over it.
DOLPHINS WR JAYLEN WADDLE 68.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
While Tyreek Hill's prop keeps rising, Waddle's remains in a manageable area for us to take advantage. Waddle has been over this receiving prop in four straight games and cleared 100 yards in two. He's had at least seven targets in three of those last four games. While the Browns are basically middle of the pack in the NFL when it comes to passing defense, the Dolphins passing game looks nearly unstoppable right now. As long as he stays under 70 yards, I don't care about the matchup.
LIONS @ BEARS (1:00pm ET)
BEARS QB JUSTIN FIELDS OVER 59.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
It is hard to fade Justin Fields. The man is playing fantastic football and he gets another terrific matchup against an awful Lions defense. Detroit allows the third most points in the league to the Quarterback position. The Lions allow 148 yards per game on the ground. The Bears are finally using him to his full potential and letting him just be a football player.
BEARS TE COLE KMET OVER 23.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
I just know this one is going to burn me but I'm going to take the shot. He's been very up and down with his production but he's been more consistent as Justin Fields has begun to figure it out. He's been over this receiving total in three of his last five games. The Lions allow the fifth most receiving yards to the tight end position at 62 yards per game. This is such a low threshold, he's got to get there.
BRONCOS @ TITANS (1:00pm ET)
BRONCOS QB RUSSELL WILSON OVER 230.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
BRONCOS WR COURTLAND SUTTON OVER 53.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
BRONCOS WR JERRY JEUDY OVER 52.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
This is a gut feeling. I think this is the game that Russell Wilson and his offense get things right. They had the bye week to reorganize and figure out what is and isn't working. They get a Titans team in bad shape especially on defense, they'll be missing multiple starters. Even with their starters, they were ranked 6th worst in the league against the wide receiver position. Basically, if the Broncos can't get their offense going this weekend, there is no hope for them.
VIKINGS @ BILLS (1:00pm ET)
VIKINGS TE T.J. HOCKENSON OVER 38.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I was pleasantly surprised to see how quickly the Vikings got their new weapon involved in the offense. Hockenson caught all nine of his targets for 70 yards in his debut against the Commanders. The Bills are obviously a better defense, but this number is pretty low for his target share. Buffalo allows 44 yards per game to the tight end position.
BILLS WR STEFON DIGGS OVER 79.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I know that Josh Allen is questionable and may not play in this game but that's not going to hold me back from playing Diggs. This is a revenge game and even if Allen doesn't go, he's got Case Keenum throwing him the ball. Keenum and Diggs had a great connection in Minnesota together. The Vikings allow the third most yards per game to the wide receiver position. This is definitely a plus matchup for him whether or not Allen plays.
SAINTS @ STEELERS (1:00pm ET)
STEELERS RB JAYLEN WARREN OVER 25.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
Mike Tomlin himself said that they need to get Jaylen Warren more opportunities in this offense heading into last week's bye. In the Steelers last game against the Eagles, he carried the ball six times for 50 yards. The Saints are just as tough against the run as Philadelphia but I think this number is too low and why we should take advantage.
STEELERS WR STEVEN SIMS UNDER 20.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
I think the notion is that with Chase Claypool out of Pittsburgh, Diontae and George move into the outside wide receiver roles which opens up the slot for Steven Sims. He has caught just two passes on the entire season. I'm going to jump on this prop especially in a tough matchup against the Saints.
SAINTS WR CHRIS OLAVE OVER 62.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I absolutely love him this weekend. I want you to look at what other receivers have done against this Steelers secondary which will be without Minkah Fitzpatrick. They allowed Gabe Davis had 171 yards and 2 TDs, AJ Brown had 154 yards and 3 TDs, Ja'Marr Chase had 129 yards and a TD, Nelson Agholor had 110 yards and a TD, Stefon Diggs 102 yards and a TD, and Amari Cooper had 101 yards and a TD. Chris Olave is also Top 10 in yards per route run. He's been over this number in two of his last three games.
COLTS @ RAIDERS (4:05pm ET)
COLTS RB JONATHAN TAYLOR OVER 71.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
I know there is basically nothing positive to say about the Colts after the week they just had. They've got a coach who has never coached in the NFL leading the team and a first time play caller. You have to think that they are going to lean on their best offensive weapon, Jonathan Taylor who is finally healthy. Travis Etienne went over 100 yards rushing against this team last week. I think Taylor can get to this mark in Week 10.
COWBOYS @ PACKERS (4:25pm ET)
GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 20.5 TOTAL POINTS SCORED (-125)
The Packers are in shambles. They just lost embarrassingly to the Lions who they have traditionally owned. They have scored under this total in three of their last four games. Green Bay is only scoring 17.1 points per game on the season and Dallas is allowing only 16.6 points per game. This game has all the makings of a bloodbath for the Packers which means they'll win, haha.
CARDINALS @ RAMS (4:25pm ET)
DraftKings and FanDuel do not have any props besides touchdown scorers available for this game. There are too many question marks at quarterback. Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray are both questionable for this game which makes all the offensive weapons in flux.