Diehards Sunday Prop Bets Week 9 2023

DIEHARDS - WEEK 9 - SUNDAY SLATE

Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com (@DrewPhelps05)
All Props Based off DraftKings Odds

SINGLE PROP 2023 REGULAR SEASON RECORD:
WEEK 9: 2-1
OVERALL: 108-131

DOLPHINS@ CHIEFS (9:30a)

DOLPHINS WR TYREEK HILL ALT 100+ RECEIVING YARDS (+115)
Tyreek has produced 100+ receiving yard games in 5 of his 8 games this season. He will be on the world stage in Frankfurt, Germany facing off against his former team. Are those enough motivational factors for Hill to put up a monster game? Yes, I know that the Chiefs pass defense has been stellar this season but in a game like this one with a lot of outside influences like being played in another country, that may be neutralized.

SEAHAWKS @ RAVENS (1:00p)

RAVENS WR RASHOD BATEMAN OVER 19.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Baltimore has shown the want to throw the ball this year. That’s one of the reasons they brought in Todd Monken to run the offense. Seattle has been surprisingly good against the run this year and will likely for Lamar more into passing situations. This is such a low threshold to hit and Bateman has been over this number in back to back games heading into this one. The Seahawks are 22nd in the league in passing yards allowed per game.

SEAHAWKS RB KENNETH WALKER OVER 13.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS (-115)
Kenneth Walker snapped his streak of 5 straight games with at least 17 or more carries last week against Cleveland. The Ravens are top 12 in the league when it comes to stopping the run at 99 yards per game on the ground. Seattle needs to run the ball to set up the play action game for Geno. I fully expect them to get back to doing what they do best which is pounding the ball and then taking deep shots down the field.

BEARS @ SAINTS (1:00p)

SAINTS QB DEREK CARR OVER 254.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
Believe it or not, Derek Carr has thrown for over 300 yards in 3 straight games. I was shocked when I saw it but he has all of these weapons healthy and working as they should. The added bonus is that the Bears are 3rd worse in the league at stopping the air attack at 262.3 yards. Chicago has allowed 4 quarterbacks to throw for 270 yards or more in a game.

CARDINALS @ BROWNS (1:00p)

BROWNS RB KAREEM HUNT OVER 9.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS (+110)
BROWNS RB KAREEM HUNT OVER 39.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)
I love everything about both of these props. Hunt should eat in this game against the Cardinals. Arizona allows 130 yards per game on the ground which is 25th in the NFL. In every game this season, 1 running back hit both of these thresholds. Hunt has hit both of these props in 2 of his last 3 games. In the one he didn’t, he had the rush attempts but only got to 31 yards. Watson is not going to want to drop by a lot coming off of the injury, I expect a full workload from Hunt in this one.

VIKINGS @ FALCONS (1:00p)

FALCONS TE KYLE PITTS ALT 50+ RECEIVING YARDS (+125)
This has to be the game for Kyle Pitts to break out. Everything is pointing towards that happening in this one. Drake London is out with an injury and Pitts has basically been lining up as a wide receiver all the time while Jonnu Smith has played that in-line tight end role. Pitts and London are basically the same size, Kyle is 2 inches taller and has the same skill set. We know that Taylor Heinicke has had a love for the tight end over his career. The Vikings have allowed 2 of the last 3 tight ends they’ve faced to go over this prop.

COMMANDERS @ PATRIOTS (1:00p)

PATRIOTS QB MAC JONES OVER 224.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
The Commanders have allowed the quarterback position to throw for at least 279 yards in 7 of their last 8 games (5 straight). On top of that, Washington unloaded its top two pass rushers at the trade deadline, and without that quarterback pressure, that will leave this secondary exposed. This is already a bad back end and now they don’t have those 4 first round picks across their defensive line. I think Mac has his best overall game of the season against this team.

BUCCANEERS @ TEXANS (1:00p)

BUCCANEERS RB RACHAAD WHITE OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-130)
It seems like Tampa Bay has just given up on running the ball at this point. They just can’t do it but one thing Rachaad White can do is catch the ball. He has caught 13 balls for 135 yards over the last two games. The Texans have allowed 4 backs they’ve faced in their last 5 games to go over this receiving prop. Houston is also 23rd against the pass on the season on a per game basis.

BUCCANEERS WR MIKE EVANS OVER 22.5 LONGEST RECEPTION (-110)
We all love Mike Evans. One of the most consistent wide receivers in the NFL, it doesn't matter who is throwing him the ball, he brings production to the field. The veteran wideout has gone over this prop in 5 of Tampa Bay’s 7 games played this season. No one in that Houston secondary will intimidate or be able to slow down Mike Evans in Week 9.

RAMS @ PACKERS (1:00p)

PACKERS QB JORDAN LOVE OVER 13.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
Jordan Love has not been good, especially throwing the ball over his last 4 games but he has been using his legs more. They have needed him to do that to keep their drives moving. He has been over this prop number in 5 of their last 6 games. The Rams are 20th against the run on the season and have allowed 4 of the last 5 quarterbacks they’ve faced to cover this prop.

COLTS @ PANTHERS (4:05p)

COLTS RB ZACK MOSS OVER 41.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
I know that Jonathan Taylor is back in the mix but Zack Moss has been too good to bench. Moss has been easily over this prop in 6 of their 7 games played this season. On top of being that consistent, he gets a terrific matchup against the Panthers which has allowed the 4th most rushing yards per game (139.4) in the NFL. It is really hard not to love this prop unless the Colts just suddenly decide not to use Moss anymore.

COWBOYS @ EAGLES (4:25p)

COWBOYS QB DAK PRESCOTT OVER 257.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
COWBOYS WR CEEDEE LAMB OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (+120)
Prescott has played much better over his last 4 games which is exactly what the Cowboys needed. A lot of that has to do with CeeDee Lamb stepping up and taking the lead in this passing game. He has had 19 catches for nearly 300 yards over his last two games. In their last head to head with the Eagles, he had 10 catches for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns. These two have to be on point if they want to beat the division leading Eagles. You can’t do it on the ground against them, you have to do it through the air like the Commanders nearly did last week. Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins and Sam Howell twice have thrown for 290 yards or more against this secondary.

RAIDERS @ GIANTS (4:25p)

RAIDERS RB JOSH JACOBS UNDER 73.5 RUSHING YARDS (-135)
I believe the Raiders will try to simplify things on offense with the firing of Josh McDaniels. They will try to run the offense through Jacobs because of that fact but the Giants defense has been excellent over the last 3 games. They have averaged 87.3 yards allowed per game on the ground. New York is going to force Aiden O’Connell to beat them through the air.

RAIDERS WR DAVANTE ADAMS OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (+120)
Just knowing that Aiden O’Connell is at the helm of this offense makes me love Adams even more than I did before. He has been complaining about not getting the ball, we’ve seen him rave out on the sidelines and now Josh McDaniels is gone. I just know they are going to force him the ball as much as possible. In the last game that O’Connell started, he had 8 catches on 13 targets for 75 yards.