DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 8 2022

DIEHARDS - WEEK 8 SUNDAY SLATE
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com

SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 129-127
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 2-11
 

BRONCOS @ JAGUARS (9:30am ET)

JAGUARS TE EVAN ENGRAM OVER 30.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The targets are there for Engram. This isn't the best matchup against a solid Broncos defense but Jacksonville has to move the ball. Engram has had targets of 10, 6, & 7 over the last three games and has cleared this receiving prop in all three. It's just too low to ignore.

BRONCOS RB LATAVIUS MURRAY OVER 32.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

The Jaguars have looked bad against the run, especially over the last three weeks. They are allowing on average 133 yards on the ground per game. It is hard to determine which back is going to get the bulk of the work but I feel like he'll get enough carries to hit this prop.

STEELERS @ EAGLES (1:00pm ET)

STEELERS QB KENNY PICKETT OVER 21.5 PASS COMPLETIONS (-120)

The Steelers only chance in this game is on the arm of Kenny Pickett. They have let the rookie loose with the offense and he's going through obvious growing pains. Pittsburgh seems fine with letting him throw his way out of these mistakes. In two of the last three games, he's throw more than 42 times and completed at least 32. The Eagles are going to get up early in this game and the Steelers will have to play catch up.

STEELERS WR CHASE CLAYPOOL OVER 39.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The ball has to be thrown to someone and Claypool has been a pretty consistent target for Kenny Pickett. He has collected 7, 8, & 9 targets over the last three games and has been clear of this receiving prop in all three. What rookie wouldn't want a big 6'4 wide receiver to throw the ball up to?

EAGLES -6.5 FIRST HALF (-110)

The Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL and coming off of a bye at home. Philadelphia is on fire from the Eagles great start to the Phillies in the World Series. I think they come out on fire against their interstate rivals and put their foot on the Steelers throat early.

BEARS @ COWBOYS (1:00pm ET)

BEARS WR EQUANIMEOUS ST. BROWN OVER 19.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)

Probably not the first name you'd expect to see in a game between the Cowboys and Bears but this is the one I feel the best about. He got seven targets in the Bears Week 7 win over the Patriots. He has been over this receiving prop in two of his last three games. Darnell Mooney gets most of the attention from the defense in the passing game which gives me more room likely one on one.

BEARS QB JUSTIN FIELDS OVER 48.5 RUSHING YARDS (-135)

Justin is only four total rushing yards from hitting this prop in five straight games. Fields has been over 80 rushing yards in back to back games and the Bears won both of those games. The only way this Chicago team moves the ball on offense is through Fields' legs. The Cowboys have allowed the 10th most rushing yards to the Quarterback position on the season.

COWBOYS RB TONY POLLARD OVER 104.5 RUSH + RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Tony is the only show in town this week against Chicago. Zeke Elliott is out of this game which gives Pollard his first real chance to carry the load for the Cowboys. He will be heavily used in the run and passing game. The Bears have allowed the 8th most Fantasy Points and 7th most rushing yards to the running back position. He will be on the mission to show that he deserves to be the featured back in this offense.

PATRIOTS @ JETS (1:00pm ET)

JETS QB ZACH WILSON UNDER 27.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-110)

The Jets have become a run first offense and Zach Wilson is basically a glorified game manager at this point. He has only been over this prop in one of his four starts this season. Despite the Breece Hall injury, that won't change their offensive mindset.

JETS WR GARRETT WILSON OVER 39.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)

If you've been reading my articles on a regular basis, you'll know this has been a favorite of mine for weeks now. Zach Wilson just doesn't look his way. Garrett hasn't had more than 6 targets in four straight games and has been under this receiving number in the last three. It has nothing to do with the Patriots defense, this prop has everything to do with Zach not looking at his rookie wide receiver more than a few times a game.

PATRIOTS RB RHAMONDRE STEVENSON OVER 64.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

The Jets are an above average defense when it comes to run stopping but this is about the usage. Stevenson has taken over as the lead back in this offense even with Damien Harris back in the mix. Rhamondre out carried him 11 to 3 in their Week 7 loss to the Bears. That game script did not go as planned and they had to get away from the run earlier than expected. He should get enough work in this grind it out game to hit this number.

DOLPHINS @ LIONS (1:00pm ET)

DOLPHINS RB RAHEEM MOSTERT OVER 67.5 RUSHING YARDS (-125)

There is no doubt who the lead dog is in this Dolphins backfield. Mostert has the trust of his coach and his teammates. They are keeping his workload manageable to keep him from getting hurt. He has been over this rushing yards prop in three of their last four games. The Lions allow the second most rushing yards per game on the season at 129 to the running back position. This should be quite easy for Mostert to hit.

DOLPHINS WR JAYLEN WADDLE OVER 66.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Waddle has been everything we wanted him to be and more since entering the league. I feel like he's taken things to another level with Tyreek Hill playing alongside him. When Tua is at the helm of the offense, Waddle gets more targets and that means more production. He's been over this receiving total in four of his last six games. The two that he didn't get there, that's when the Dolphins were going through their quarterback injury issues. I like Tyreek Hill a lot too but his prop is just a little too high for me.

CARDINALS @ VIKINGS (1:00pm ET)

CARDINALS WR DEANDRE HOPKINS OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (+115)

CARDINALS WR DEANDRE HOPKINS OVER 74.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I was tempted to jump on this prop last week but I wanted to see him play a game first. Kyler and DeAndre did not skip a beat despite the six game suspension. Murray targeted DeAndre 14 times for 10 catches and 103 yards in his first game back. I do not see any reason except for injury that these two don't do something similar this weekend in Minnesota.

VIKINGS TE IRV SMITH JR OVER 29.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

This is THE matchup when it comes to tight ends in the National Football League. The Cardinals are the absolute worst at covering the tight end position allowing an average of seven catches for 77 yards per game on the season. Even a guy like Juwan Johnson put up 5 catches for 32 yards and two touchdowns against this team. Dallas Goedert had eight catches for 95 yards two weeks prior. Irv has been over this receiving prop in three of his last five games.

CARDINALS WR RONDALE MOORE UNDER 40.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-130)

Everyone expected for the "offensive genius" Kliff Kingsbury to figure out unique ways to get Rondale Moore involved in the game plan and it just hasn't happened. Moore can be an explosive weapon when used the right way. DeAndre Hopkins' return to the lineup completely took away all value that Moore had in this offense. Moore had targets of 8 and 10 in the two game prior to Hopkins return and had just two targets last week. It seems as if he's getting phased out.

RAIDERS @ SAINTS (1:00pm ET)

SAINTS RB ALVIN KAMARA OVER 38.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Another one of my favorite bets as long as Andy Dalton remains the starting quarterback for the Saints. Kamara does not get the looks in the screen game when Jameis is running the offense. Alvin is averaging eight targets per game over the last three games and has been over this prop in two of those three games. The Raiders have allowed the fourth most receiving yards to the running back position on the season.

SAINTS WR CHRIS OLAVE OVER 66.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

This rookie has looked anything like one this season. Veterans Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry have missed multiple games but it doesn't bother him or his production. Andy Dalton loves throwing to this kid as he targeted him 14 games in the Saints Week 7 loss to the Cardinals. Olave has cleared this receiving prop in four of his six games played this season. The Raiders have allowed the 10th most receiving yards to the wide receiver position this season.

PANTHERS @ FALCONS (1:00pm ET)

PANTHERS WR D.J. MOORE OVER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

I feel like everyone is looking at D'Onta Foreman in this game because he's going to be the lead back without Chuba Hubbard but it's a misdirect. I think Foreman will be fine but the Falcons defensive strength is stopping the run. Atlanta struggles with their coverage especially with their top cornerback A.J. Terrell ruled out already for this game. If there was a week for D.J. Moore to awaken from the fantasy dead, this is the week even with P.J. Walker running the offense. He caught seven balls on 10 targets in the Panthers surprising win over the Buccaneers last weekend.

FALCONS TE KYLE PITTS UNDER 35.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

I'm going to just lean into this now because it's obviously not going to turn around at this point. Kyle has been under this receiving yards prop in five of his six games played this season. He had one breakout game against the Seahawks with five catches for 87 yards but nothing even close since that game. Arthur Smith has made the decision to use his former fourth overall pick as a blocking tight end instead of utilizing his very impressive skill set.

TITANS @ TEXANS (4:05pm ET)

TEXANS QB DAVIS MILLS OVER 228.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

Davis has cleared this prop in three of his last four games including a 300 yard performance last weekend in Las Vegas. While Houston is not winning a lot of games, Mills has looked better over the last month. The Titans allow 294 yards per game through the air which is third most in the league. This is a pretty low threshold for him to hit.

TEXANS TE JORDAN AKINS OVER 16.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

This number is shockingly low when you look at Jordan's game log. He has been easily clear of this receiving prop total in all four games that he's played this season. I just told you about how bad the Titans are against the pass. This is an easy play on Sunday.

GIANTS @ SEAHAWKS (4:25pm ET)

SEAHWAKS RB KENNETH WALKER OVER 82.5 RUSHING YARDS (-125)

The Seahawks have found a gem in Kenneth Walker. It is a shame that it came at the cost of Rashaad Penny getting injured but that's the game. Seattle wants to be a run first time like they were with Marshawn Lynch but hadn't really found that back since him. Walker looks to be that guy and has taken this opportunity and has literally run with it. He has been clear of this running prop total in three straight games and has carried the ball more than 20 times in each of the last two games. The Giants allow the fifth most rushing yards per game in the NFL at 118.

GIANTS WR WAN'DALE ROBINSON OVER 43.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

The Giants traded away Kadarius Toney this week because they believe in what they have with Wan'Dale Robinson. Toney was never a Daboll guy from day one and Robinson was drafted to replace him. The targets, receptions, and yards have gone up in each of his first two games back from injury. Jones needs weapons that aren't named Saquon Barkley to keep this offense moving and Robinson is that guy.

49ERS @ RAMS (4:25pm ET)

49ERS CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY OVER 60.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)

Christian got limited work in his first game with the 49ers last week against the Chiefs. He barely got a chance to look at the playbook but still contributed 62 total yards on 10 touches. CMC got a full week of work with the team heading into this matchup against the Rams. He just faced this same Rams team two weeks ago as a member of the Panthers and ran for 69 yards on 13 carries. I think he can definitely do that again with a better offensive line in front of him.

49ERS NICK BOSA OVER 0.25 SACKS (-130)

This bet basically means that Bosa only needs to record half a sack in this game for us to hit it. He had two full sacks against this same Rams team three weeks ago. Los Angeles' offensive line has been terrible this season allowing Matthew Stafford to be sacked 22 times this season and that's playing one less game than most of the league. I feel like Nick gets home in this game at least once.

COMMANDERS @ COLTS (4:25pm ET)

COMMANDERS RB BRIAN ROBINSON JR OVER 55.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

COMMANDERS RB BRIAN ROBINSON JR OVER 14.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS (-125)

The Commanders have shown that they want to establish the run with Brian Robinson. He may not have the speed of Antonio Gibson, but he is a grinder and gets that three yards and a cloud of dust every time he carries the ball. He has been over both of these props in back to back games since taking over the starting running back spot. The Colts allow the 10th most rushing yards per game in the league at 103.

COLTS QB SAM EHLINGER OVER 25.5 RUSHING YARDS (-125)

The Colts have made the decision to wake up their offense and bench old man Matt Ryan. I'm not saying that Sam Ehlinger is the answer to all their problems but they were going nowhere with Ryan and needed a change. Ehlinger has some wheels, he carried the ball over 500 times in college for nearly 2000 yards and over 30 touchdowns. This former Texas Longhorn has looked good in the preseason when he's had opportunities to showcase his skill set. The Colts want to see what they have in 24 year old before making a decision on quarterback when the draft rolls around in April.