Diehards Sunday Prop Bets Week 15 2023

DIEHARDS - WEEK 15 - SUNDAY SLATE

Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com (@DrewPhelps05)
All Props Based off DraftKings Odds

SINGLE PROP 2023 REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

WEEK 15: 6-1
OVERALL: 189-201

CHIEFS @ PATRIOTS (1p ET)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS TEAM TOTAL POINTS UNDER 22.5 POINTS (+114)
I do not have any faith in this offense right now. They are completely relying on penalties to move the ball down the field. They don’t have Isiah Pacheco once again which will hurt them even more. They are only scoring 22.5 points per game on the season and 21 points on the road. The Patriots are allowing just 11.3 points per game over their last 3. I’d even go down to 21.5 points to get even better odds.

JETS @ DOLPHINS (1p ET)

JETS QB ZACH WILSON OVER 29.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-130)
If you ignore the game where he got benched against the Bills, he has been over this prop in 7 of his last 8 games. The Jets have no problem letting him fling the ball all over the field. Wilson has thrown it over 35 times in his last 4 games (if you exclude the benching game). I don’t know why this number is so low, you know the Jets are going to likely trail in this game and he will need to chuck it to keep them in it.

JETS RB BREECE HALL OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (+114)
JETS RB BREECE HALL OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
These bets have been locked in the last few weeks and I have no reason to think it will end this weekend against the Dolphins. When you look at his receptions, he has been over in 4 straight and 5 of his last 7. When you look at the receiving yards, he has been over in 4 of 5 and 5 of his last 7. He has had at least 8 targets in his last 3 games. Miami allowed 33 yards per game through the air to the running back position this season. Zach Wilson basically throws the ball to just two people at this point, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.

GIANTS @ SAINTS (1p ET)

GIANTS QB TOMMY DEVITO OVER 31.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
I may be buying into the hype here a bit but the only way this team moved the ball last week was DeVito picking up 1st downs with his legs. He has passed for over 200 yards just once in his 5 games as starter and that was against the terrible Commanders secondary. He rushed the ball 10 times for 71 yards in their Week 14 win over the Packers. Green Bay gives up the 2nd most rushing yards per game to the quarterback position, the Saints give up the 3rd most. There isn’t much else to like in this game.

TEXANS @ TITANS (1p ET)

TEXANS WR DEANDRE HOPKINS OVER 59.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
Will Levis has shown the ability to get the ball to DeAndre Hopkins which is why he’s had success. Usually when you get the ball to your best offensive weapon, good things happen. Levis has connected with DHop for 75 and 124 yards over the last two weeks. Also, Hopkins is facing the team that he started his career with and traded him away to the Cardinals. You don’t think he’ll have a little extra edge against them? I love him for a big game against the Texans which will be hurting without CJ Stroud running the offense.

BEARS @ BROWNS (1p ET)

BEARS QB JUSTIN FIELDS OVER 26.5 PASS ATTEMPT (-130)
This may seem strange to pick against this Browns defense but Joe Flacco has been able to move the ball scoring 19 and 31 points in his two starts. I feel like the Bears are going to have to throw the ball to stay in the game. If you don’t count the game where he got hurt and didn’t finish, he has been over this prop in 4 of his last 5 full games. He has passed the ball 33 or more times in his last two games. I think this is a smart safe bet to maybe pair with another one to improve your odds a bit.

BROWNS WR AMARI COOPER OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-120)
When Amari is healthy and finishes the game, he’s basically a lock for 5 catches. He caught 7 for 77 in last week’s win over the Jaguars. It doesn’t hurt that Cooper has a competent passer running the offense to get him the ball, early and often. A good quarterback knows which playmakers to get the ball too and that’s what Flacco can do better than anyone else on the Browns active roster.

FALCONS @ PANTHERS (1p ET)

FALCONS RB BIJAN ROBINSON OVER 18.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
It is nearly impossible what the hell Arthur Smith is going to do with his offense week in and week out. It’s almost criminal what he’s doing with Bijan this season. I have FAITH (which may be crazy) that he’ll continue to involve him in the passing game. He has been easily over this prop number in 3 straight games. The Panthers allow 21 yards per game through the air to the running back. This is a scary bet to trust anything Mr. Smith does but I’m going to take the shot.

PANTHERS RB CHUBA HUBBARD OVER 65.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
If he continues to get 20+ carries per game, it’s hard not to believe he’ll clear this prop without any issue. Hubbard had 25 carries for 104 yards and 23 carries for 87 yards in his last two games. Atlanta is allowing 110 yards per game on the ground this season. Carolina does not trust Bryce Young to throw the ball with good reason. They basically tell him to hand the ball off and make a few passes when needed and he can’t do that.

BUCCANEERS @ PACKERS (1p ET)

PACKERS QB JORDAN LOVE OVER 248.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
PACKERS WR JAYDEN REED OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-105)
I paired these two together because the Buccaneers have been awful this season against the pass. Tampa Bay allows 282 yards passing per game through the air. If Jordan Love is going to get over that passing prop, it’s going to happen by getting the ball to Jayden Reed. Week 14 broke a streak of 4 straight games over 250 yards passing for Love. Reed was targeted 10 times for 8 catches in Week 14. He has had at least 4 catches in 5 straight games. 3 of the last 4 quarterbacks against the Bucs have thrown for 250 yards or more.

49ERS @ CARDINALS (4:05p ET)

49ERS WR DEEBO SAMUEL OVER 57.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I believe in riding the hot hand. Deebo is about as hot as it gets in the NFL right now. He has at least 63 yards in 4 straight games and over 100 in his last two. The Cardinals allow 167 yards per game through the air to the wide receiver position. They have allowed a receiver to go over this prop number in 4 of their last 5 games which includes 149 to Tank Dell and 139 to Amari Cooper. This is such a modest number for a guy of his talent.

COMMANDERS @ RAMS (4:05p ET)

RAMS WR COOPER KUPP OVER 84.5 ALT RECEIVING YARDS (+135)
RAMS WR COOPER KUPP OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (-145)
There is nothing not to love about Cooper Kupp in this matchup. The Washington Commanders outside secondary is by far the worst in the league. They allow 198 yards per game through the air to the wide receiver position. Do you remember when I told you about Tyreek Hill a few weeks back? He went over that number in the first half. Kupp had a pretty pedestrian number for 6 weeks in the middle of the season but had a huge rebound in Week 14 with 8 catches for 115 yards against the Ravens.

COWBOYS @ BILLS (4:05p ET)

BILLS WR STEFON DIGGS OVER 68.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I believe this game will be personal for Stefon Diggs. He knows how big this game is for the team, they need this game way more than Dallas does. The weather is not going to be good but he knows how to play in these conditions better than anyone on the Cowboys. He has only been over this receiving number in 3 of his last 6 games but I’m throwing that out the window when it comes to this game. The Bills need to be on their A game cause they can’t afford another loss.

COWBOYS QB DAK PRESCOTT UNDER 269.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
Dak Prescott has put himself right squarely in the MVP conversation with his play over the last 8 weeks (winning 7 of those). This will not be his day though. He hasn’t had to play through any adverse conditions in a long time. If this game was being played in Dallas, I’d go the other way with this bet. This game will have rain throughout and winds in the 10-20 MPH range.