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DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 13 2022
DIEHARDS - WEEK 13 SUNDAY SLATE
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com
SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 200-213
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 5-14
TITANS @ EAGLES (1:00p ET)
EAGLES QB JALEN HURTS OVER 48.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
After focusing on the pass early in the season, the last two games Jalen Hurts has rushed the ball 33 times for 243 yards. While the Titans have a good run defense, the ground game is how the Eagles move the ball. I believe Philadelphia will continue to call designed runs.
TITANS TE AUSTIN HOOPER OVER 20.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
You have to continue to ride this prop. Hooper has cleared this receiving yards prop in each of the last four games. He has had at least three targets in each of those games. Tannehill needed another passing option and it took a few weeks for the tight end to find the chemistry.
BRONCOS @ RAVENS (1:00p ET)
BRONCOS RB LATAVIUS MURRAY UNDER 54.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
I know he is the only game in town when it comes to the Broncos run game but come on. This Broncos offense has been terrible this season. The Ravens rush defense has been superb over the last three weeks. They have allowed just 40 yards per game on the ground. If you take out last week, Murray had been under this number in the four previous.
JETS @ VIKINGS (1:00p ET)
JETS QB MIKE WHITE OVER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (-115)
JETS WR GARRETT WILSON OVER 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I believe that these two bets go hand in hand. The best thing that could have happened to Garrett Wilson was the removal of Zach Wilson from starting quarterback. In their first game together, Wilson got targeted eight times by Mike White. Wilson caught five balls for 95 yards and two touchdowns. This matchup is a dream for these two when you look at how bad the Vikings secondary has been this season. These two are in a smash spot.
VIKINGS UNDER 23.5 TEAM TOTAL POINTS (-115)
The Jets defense is no joke. Sauce Gardner has added an element to put them over the edge from good to great defense. In the last three games, the Jets have allowed just 12.3 points and only 17.8 per game for the season. The Vikings will not have their stud tackle Christian Darrisaw once again and that'll have the Jets talented defense line licking their chops. Kirk Cousins does not handle pressure.
BROWNS @ TEXANS (1:00p ET)
BROWNS RB NICK CHUBB OVER 94.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
I normally don't like taking a rushing prop this high but this is the only exception because it's the Houston Texans. We've spoken about it for weeks on end that there is no better matchup for the running back than against this Houston team. I don't care that Chubb has only been over 100 yards in two of his last four games, none of those games were against the Texans. I believe he is the best pure runner in the NFL and he's got to be pumped to play in this game.
TEXANS RB DAMEON PIERCE OVER 67.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
This has got to be a get right game for Dameon Pierce. The matchup could not be any better for him because he can't play the Texans. The Browns allow 116 yards per game on the ground. Fellow rookie Rachaad White had 64 yards against this same Browns team last weekend. If he can't do it this week, that might be it for him this season.
COMMANDERS @ GIANTS (1:00p ET)
COMMANDERS TE LOGAN THOMAS OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS (-110)
COMMANDERS TE LOGAN THOMAS OVER 23.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
Did you know the Giants are the third worst in the league when it comes to covering the tight end? They allow 61 yards per game to the position. Logan is finally healthy and slowly getting worked back into the offense. He is a big tall target for Heinicke who is prone to throw the ball high. He didn't do much last week in the terrible weather against the Falcons but the week before indoors against Houston he caught five balls for 65 yards.
COMMANDERS LB JAMIN DAVIS OVER 7.5 TACKLES + AST (+100)
This former first round pick in 2021 has been a work in progress but that work has paid off. He may not be a superstar but he's become a very good linebacker in the NFL. He has incredible speed and can catch a running back trying to get to the edge like a Saquon Barkley. He had 10 total tackles last week against the Falcons a very run centric team like the Giants. He had nine three weeks ago against the Texans, same thing.
JAGUARS @ LIONS (1:00p ET)
LIONS QB JARED GOFF OVER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (+115)
Jared Goff is a different player when he plays in the comfy confines of Ford Field. He has thrown for at least two touchdowns in five of the Lions six home games this season. The Jaguars allow 19.6 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. You have to love the odds on this one.
JAGUARS RB TRAVIS ETIENNE OVER 61.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)
We got the good news today from Doug Pederson that Travis will be able to go on Sunday and he couldn't have hoped for a better matchup. The Lions are allowing 170 yards per game on the ground over their last three and 154 for the season. He's had a rough stretch over the last two games after exploding the first two weeks after taking over the starting job. This is the week he gets back on track.
LIONS WR AMON-RA ST. BROWN OVER 73.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
LIONS WR AMON-RA ST. BROWN OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (-135)
There is no reason to think that Amon-Ra St. Brown will be slowed down by the Jaguars defense. While the Jaguars are not terrible against the pass, St. Brown is playing at another level right now. Over his last three games, he is averaging 9 targets, 8 catches, and 105 yards. If Goff is going to get those two touchdown passes, St. Brown is going to be a big part of that.
STEELERS @ FALCONS (1:00p ET)
STEELERS QB KENNY PICKETT OVER 19.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
Pickett is not the most fleet of foot but he gets the job done when the Steelers need him. He has been over this rushing total in three of his last four games. When you look at the Falcons defense, they only allow 14 rushing yards per game to the quarterback position. That number is flawed because they've faced only one real rushing threat in Justin Fields and he went for 85 yards.
STEELERS WR STEVEN SIMS UNDER 12.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
We won on this bet on Monday night and the number actually went up since their last game. I understand he did catch two balls on three targets but only managed nine yards. He's just not a big enough part of the offense to be afraid that he'll crack this prop. It would have to be a busted tackle type play for him to hit this one.
PACKERS @ BEARS (1:00p ET)
BEARS QB JUSTIN FIELDS OVER 68.5 RUSHING YARDS (+100)
If Justin Fields plays on Sunday like we expect, he will clear this prop. The Bears offense goes as Field goes which means with his legs. In the last six games he played, he went over this number in five of them. The Packers are bottom 10 in the league when it comes to stopping the running quarterback.
PACKERS RB AARON JONES 55.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
This is a premium matchup for Aaron Jones and it showed in their first matchup in Week 2 when he rushed the ball 15 times for 132 yards and a touchdown. The Bears allow the 7th most rushing yards to their opponent at 113 yards per game. No matter if it's Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love playing quarterback, he'll get a heavy workload against the Bears.
DOLPHINS @ 49ERS (4:05p ET)
49ERS WR BRANDON AIYUK OVER 57.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Brandon has been a consistent performer since about Week 6 of the season. He has been over this receiving prop in six of his last seven games. If you throw out the domination over the Cardinals in Mexico, he hasn't had less than six targets over that span. When you watch this offense work, he's the go to guy over the middle. The Dolphins allow 151 yards through the air per game.
DOLPHINS WR JAYLEN WADDLE OVER 65.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
It is crazy to me that Waddle's prop still has not creeped into the 70s but I'm not mad about it. He has hit this receiving prop in six straight games. He hasn't had less than 5 targets in any game over that span. Tua is going to have to throw the ball against this defense cause the ground game will be hard to come by. The 49ers allow only 59 yards per game to the running back position but 158 yards to the wide receiver.
DOLPHINS KICKER JASON SANDERS OVER 1.5 FIELD GOALS MADE (+105)
We know that Miami is one of the highest scoring offenses in the league but I have a feeling that they will be stopped short of the goal line a few times in this game. Sanders has been over this in back to back games.
SEAHAWKS @ RAMS (4:05p ET)
SEAHAWKS RB KENNETH WALKER OVER 74.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Walker has slowed down significantly over the last two games. He didn't top this rushing prop if you combined his last two games together. I have a feeling that this is going to be a wake up call against a Rams defense that is completely depleted of talent. When you look at Los Angeles' numbers against the run, they allow 81 yards per game but that's with a fully healthy roster.
SEAHAWKS TE NOAH FANT OVER 26.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
While Fant has not been lighting the world on fire at the tight end position, it's been steady production. He has been easily over this prop in three straight games with at least three targets in each. The Rams defense allows the tight end to catch 43 yards per game. Fant has become Geno's over the middle target with the two studs on the outside.
CHIEFS @ BENGALS (4:25p ET)
SGP SPECIAL (+130)
Mahomes OVER 269.5 Passing Yards
Burrow OVER 249.5 Passing Yards
Smith-Schuster OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards
The numbers are all inflated in this game but I wanted to get in on the action. I feel like this is going to be a track meet and whoever scores last will win. You can add Travis Kelce into this mix to increase the odds but I feel like this is really safe to hit.
BENGALS TE HAYDEN HURST 38.5 RECEIVING YARDS (+100)
I know that Ja'Marr Chase is back in the mix for the Bengals offense but I don't feel like that will impact his workload. Hurst had nine targets in last week's win over the Titans. He caught six of those targets for 57 yards. The Chiefs allow the opposing tight end to catch 48 yards per game.
CHARGERS @ RAIDERS (4:25p ET)
RAIDERS RB JOSH JACOBS OVER 119.5 RUSH + RECEIVE YARDS (-115)
It is hard to fade Josh Jacobs at this point. The dude had a record breaking day in Week 12 against the Seahawks. He touched the ball 39 times for over 300 yards of total offense. I'm not saying he's going to do that again but the Chargers are absolutely awful against the run. Only the Texans are worse against the run than the Chargers on the season, allowing 133 yards per game on the ground. He makes this offense go and will continue to get the ball a lot.
CHARGERS WR KEENAN ALLEN OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (-110)
CHARGERS WR KEENAN ALLEN OVER 64.5 RECEPTIONS (-120)
We have been disappointed in Keenan Allen this season with all the injuries. You can't blame the guy for getting hurt but you can be disappointed especially if you drafted him in fantasy. He has been solid since returning two weeks ago but we are still waiting for that explosion from him and this has got to be the game. The Raiders have a terrible secondary allowing 160 yards per game to the wide receiver position. He doesn't have Mike Williams to compete for targets. He caught four balls for 66 yards in Week 1 against this Raiders team.
CHARGERS TE GERALD EVERETT OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (+105)
CHARGERS TE GERALD EVERTT OVER 32.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
This is going to be a high scoring game between two teams trying to hang onto playoff chances in the AFC. They met in Week 1 and the Chargers came out on top 24-19. Everett finished that game with three catches for 57 yards. He has caught at least four passes in three of the Chargers last four games. The Raiders allow 50 yards per game to the tight end position.