Diehards Sunday Prop Bets Week 10 2023

DIEHARDS - WEEK 10 - SUNDAY SLATE

Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com (@DrewPhelps05)
All Props Based off DraftKings Odds

SINGLE PROP 2023 REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

WEEK 10: 2-1
OVERALL: 119-142

COLTS @ PATRIOTS (9:30a ET)

COLTS RB JONATHAN TAYLOR OVER 18.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-130)
The transition has definitely happened at running back in Indianapolis. Jonathan Taylor is taking the workload back from Zack Moss. He out carried him 18 to 7 and out caught him 5 to 0. He has been over this receiving total in 3 of his last 4 games. The Patriots have allowed a running back to catch at least 3 balls in 8 of their 9 games and to go over this receiving total in 3 of their last 5 games. Minshew has no problem dumping the ball off to the All Pro Running Back.

BROWNS @ RAVENS (1p ET)

RAVENS RB GUS EDWARDS UNDER 47.5 RUSHING YARDS (-140)
A defensive coordinator like Jim Schwartz knows that the Ravens are one dimensional. They can only really move the ball on the ground and that starts with Gus Edwards. Gus only had 48 yards on 15 carries in their first meeting which I’m throwing out because the Browns didn’t have Watson running the offense. The Browns have the number one overall defense in the league and 6th best at stopping the run. Schwartz will force Lamar to beat them through air. The highest a running back has gained on them in one game is 75 yards.

RAVENS QB LAMAR JACKSON UNDER 205.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
Even in their victory in Week 3 over the Browns, Lamar threw for only 186 yards. Lamar has been under this number in his last two games and in 5 of their 9 games this season. Cleveland has the number one pass defense in the league allowing only 145 per game through the air. The Browns will be out for blood after their embarrassing loss at home to Baltimore earlier this season. I think they get up early and Lamar will be forced to throw more.

RAVENS WR RASHOD BATEMAN OVER 19.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Bateman has not been heavily targeted but none of the receivers really have been because of the running game’s effectiveness. Despite the lack of attempts, Bateman has been clear of this number in 3 straight games and I mentioned how I felt Lamar would have to throw more in this game to get this victory. Bateman will have to be utilized in this passing attack for the Ravens to keep up.

49ERS @ JAGUARS (1p ET)

JAGUARS QB TREVOR LAWRENCE OVER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (+110)
Yes, Trevor has only done this twice all season but he makes it 3 in Week 10. They are fresh from the bye and they get a 49ers defense that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 3 of their last 5 games and 5 total in their last 2 games. San Francisco’s defense is a lot of reputation more than play especially over the last few games.

JAGUARS WR CALVIN RIDLEY OVER 55.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Those passes from Lawrence have to go somewhere and I believe the bull will go to Ridley in this one. If you look at the 49ers defense, they have allowed one outside receiver to go off in 5 of their last 7 games. 100 yard receiving games from Chase, Addison, Cooper, Hollywood (96), and Nacua. He went easily over this (83) in the Jags last game against the Steelers.

49ERS RB CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY UNDER 65.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
After his amazing first 4 weeks of the season, he has been under this rushing prop in his last 4. Maybe the bye week will help him get that extra burst but not against this Jaguars front. Every running back that Jacksonville has faced has been held to 70 yards or fewer except one, Bijan Robinson. This front is tough and nasty to rush against. The Jags will look to force Purdy to throw the ball.

TEXANS @ BENGALS (1p ET)

TEXANS WR NOAH BROWN OVER 41.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
This might be a bit of a stretch but he’s become a favorite target the last couple games for the Texans. Brown has had at least 5 targets in each of the last two games. The Bengals have allowed the 3rd most passing yards per game over their last 3 (297). I feel like he’ll get lost in the shuffle of their other targets like Dell, Woods, and Schultz.

BENGALS RB JOE MIXON UNDER 65.5 RUSHING YARDS (-130)
Mixon has not cleared 87 yards in a game this season. He has been under this rushing total in 5 of the Bengals 8 games this season. The Texans have tightened up in front over their last 3 games allowing only 71 yards per game on the ground. Joe Burrow has been a man possessed over his last 2 games and carried the team in his back. I think he does that again in Week 10 against Houston.

PACKERS @ STEELERS (1p ET)

STEELERS QB KENNY PICKETT UNDER 206.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
I have decided that Kenny Pickett sucks, lol. I just decided. I’m sure I’m going to piss off a lot of Pittsburgh fans but he just isn’t it guys. I’d take the Commanders Sam Howell over him 10 times out of 10. C.J. Stroud as a rookie already has more TD passes than Pickett does. He gets a very difficult Packers secondary that hasn’t allowed a passer to go over 240 yards this season. The Titans are a secondary you can beat and he threw for over 160 yards. If they win this game, it’ll be on the ground, not through the air.

STEELERS RB JAYLEN WARREN OVER 32.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
The Packers allow 124 yards per game on the ground. I’m fine with taking either of these running backs but I like the lower threshold for Warren. He put up a season high 88 yards on 11 carries in Week 9. I’m going to throw out the last two weeks for the Packers because they have faced terrible running teams but when they’ve faced a legit rushing attack, they’ve been gouged. I also love Warren because he’s got the potential to break a big carry anytime he touches the ball.

SAINTS @ VIKINGS (1p ET)

SAINTS RB ALVIN KAMARA OVER 31.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
This game is pretty terrible to find value in props but this one is just too juicy to pass up. Kamara has been over this receiving total in 5 of his 6 games played this season. Kamara is averaging 8 targets and 7 catches a game this season. The Vikings have allowed a running back to go over this number in 2 of their last 3 games. Minnesota allows 225 yards per game through the air which is in the bottom half of the league.

TITANS @ BUCCANEERS (1p ET)

TITANS QB WILL LEVIS OVER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (+154)
TITANS QB WILL LEVIS OVER 222.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
I have been very impressed with rookie QB Will Levis over his first two starts. He looked calm, cool and collected out there. Levis played lights out in his first game against a solid Falcons defense and while they lost the game in Pittsburgh, he did not lose that game for them. He gets a terrific matchup in Week 10 against the Buccaneers which were torched by C.J. Stroud last week to the tune of 470 yards and 5 touchdown passes. Tampa Bay has allowed 2 or more touchdown passes in 3 of their last 4 and 250 passing yards in 5 of their last 6. I like him to have a huge day against the Bucs.

BUCCANEERS WR MIKE EVANS OVER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
There is very little not to like about Mike Evans. He’s one of the most consistent wide receivers in the game. There are very few cornerbacks that can matchup with him and he knows it. Baker has realized that if you get the ball in his hands, good things happen. The Titans have allowed at least once receiver to go for 70 yards or more in all but one game this season and 3 receivers have gone for over 100. Tennessee as a whole is right in the middle of the league at yards per game through the air. Evans has gone over 80 yards in 2 of his last 3 games.

LIONS @ CHARGERS (4p ET)

LIONS QB JARED GOFF OVER 23.5 PASS COMPLETIONS (-125)
LIONS WR AMON-RA ST. BROWN OVER 83.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I believe these two props go hand in hand in Week 10. The Chargers are the absolute worst team in the league against the pass. The Chargers have allowed 7 of the 8 Quarterbacks they’ve faced to complete at least 24 passes. They have allowed 7 receivers to go for 75 receiving yards or more on the season. Jared and Amon-Ra have both gone over these numbers together in 3 straight games.

FALCONS @ CARDINALS (4p ET)

FALCONS RB BIJAN ROBINSON OVER 54.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
This has to be the game. Arthur Smith has been raked over the coals for not using his Top 10 draft pick enough. The media has been pressing him every single week, so much so that he gave a 5 minute answer during the week which made no sense but he knows the cross hairs are on him. It’s almost like he wants to not use him to prove that he can do it without him. Either way, I think he unleashes Bijan this week and lets him run wild against a run defense that allows 133 yards per game at home on the ground. This is such a low threshold and if he just gets 12-15 carries, he can easily get there.

FALCONS TE JONNU SMITH OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS (-160)
First of all, I have a rule that I don’t play odds over -150 but I believe this prop will move to 3.5 by game time and the odds will improve. If it doesn’t, I’ll use it in a SGP for sure. He has caught at least 3 balls in 7 of his 8 games played this season. Arthur Smith seems to love this guy over his other stud first round pick Kyle Pitts, which again makes no sense. I’ll take advantage of this love though.

GIANTS @ COWBOYS (4p ET)

GIANTS QB TOMMY DEVITO OVER 12.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
This kid is going to be running for his life in this one. He gets his first professional start in Dallas against the Cowboys, no pressure at all. He ran the ball 4 times in each of the other two games he got playing time. That Cowboy pass rush is no joke especially with Micah Parsons, so he’ll be forced to scramble. The Cowboys have allowed 5 Quarterbacks to run for 20 yards or more this season.

COWBOYS WR CEEDEE LAMB OVER 77.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
COWBOYS WR CEEDEE LAMB OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (-150)
I mean it’s hard to bet against CeeDee Lamb at this point. Lamb has accumulated 115 yards or more in 3 straight games. He is on an incredible run right now catching 23 passes over the last two weeks. The connection between him and Dak has never been better and I don’t see the Giants stopping that. My only fear with this bet is that the Cowboys get up big and they coast to the finish line.

COMMANDERS @ SEAHAWKS (4p ET)

SEAHAWKS RB KENNETH WALKER III OVER 9.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
Kenneth is not known for his pass catching ability, only going over this prop in 3 games this season but against the Commanders, I have to jump in. This could be done on just one catch. The Commanders have been owned by pass catching running backs. 5 running backs in the last 4 games have had at least 15 yards receiving against this defense. I don’t think there are very many that have picked up on this trend against Washington.

COMMANDERS WR TERRY MCLAURIN OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-135)
One of the most consistent options in the NFL. He has caught at least 5 balls in 7 of his last 8 games. It helps that he has a Quarterback that can deliver the ball. The Seahawks have allowed 9 receivers this season to catch 5 or more balls. Seattle has allowed 255 yards per game through the air at home this season, I have a feeling that Howell carves them up on Sunday afternoon.