DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week1 2022

DIEHARDS - SUNDAY WEEK 1 PROP BETS
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com


SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 2-2
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 1-0
 

RAVENS @ JETS (1pm ET)

RAVENS TE MARK ANDREWS OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+115)

The man is a target machine when Lamar Jackson is under center. He had double digit targets in six of their last eight games last season and had over 5.5 receptions in the Ravens last five games of the season. No reason to believe that any of these trends will change this season.

RAVENS WR RASHOD BATEMAN UNDER 47.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-105)

While I think the Ravens win this game and I think they win convincingly, I don't think it'll be on the back of second year wide out Rashod Bateman. The Jets spent their 4th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner. This dude did not give up one touchdown in his college career. I believe in the talent and he'll be all over Bateman in his debut for the Jets. I think he keeps Rashod in check.

SINGLE GAME PARLAY SPECIAL (+370):
Ravens -2.5
Lamar Jackson OVER 44.5 Rushing Yards
Mark Andrews 60+ Receiving Yards
Rashod Bateman UNDER 54.5 Receiving Yards

EAGLES @ LIONS (1pm ET)

EAGLES TE DALLAS GOEDERT OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (+105)

Jalen Hurts loves throwing to his tight end and finally Dallas Goedert has no one to compete with for targets. Once Zach Ertz was traded out of Philadelphia, Goedert took the role and ran with it. He covered this 4.5 receptions number in four of his last five games last season. The fact that it's plus odds just makes no sense to me. A.J. Brown will open things up for him even more.

EAGLES RB KENNETH GAINWELL OVER 9.5 YARDS LONGEST RECEPTION (-105)

I don't know if you know this but Gainwell will be a big part of this offense in 2022. Whether it's carrying the ball or catching it out of the backfield. He will likely start primarily as the third down receptions back and that's why I love this prop. He will scamper for a 10 yard reception in this game, I'm confident in that fact. He had nine receptions in his last two games of the 2022 season. That tells me that Hurts has confidence in the young back.

SINGLE GAME PARLAY SPECIAL (+450):
Lions +14.5
Jalen Hurts 35+ Rushing Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown 50+ Receiving Yards
A.J. Brown 50+ Receiving Yards
Dallas Goedert 4+ Receptions

COLTS @ TEXANS (1pm ET)

TEXANS WR BRANDIN COOKS OVER 59.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

If Davis Mills is under center for the Texans than I will always love Brandin Cooks props. Mills knows who his number one target is in this offense and goes to him early and often. The last four games of the 2021 season, he averaged six catches and 73 yards. I also like his catches prop as well but I'll make this my official play in this game.

COLTS RB JONATHAN TAYLOR UNDER 97.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

You can call this a hot take but the Texans have had all offseason to prepare for the NFL's leading rusher. He crushed the Texans for over 140 yards rushing in both games last season. Lovie Smith is a defensive minded coach and he'll force old man Matt Ryan to beat him. Taylor will get his touches but I don't think he cracks the 100 yard mark.

STEELERS @ BENGALS (1pm ET)

STEELERS TE PAT FREIERMUTH OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (+120)

Mitch Trubisky takes over the reins of the Steelers offense and what better way to get yourself settled down than hitting your big trusty tight end. I believe he'll be targeted early and often with Mitch under center. He had over 3.5 catches in his last four games of the 2021 season.

BENGALS RB JOE MIXON OVER 15.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

This number is entirely too low. Mixon is a consistent threat out of the backfield in this Bengals offense. Over his last six games of the season including the playoffs he averaged over five catches and 36 yards per game. He is always there for Joe Burrow when he needs a safety valve.

49ERS @ BEARS (1pm ET)

49ERS QB TREY LANCE OVER 37.5 RUSHING YARDS (-125)

While I don't love his passing accuracy, he does have undeniable talent when it comes to his legs. I believe he'll have to run the ball to keep this offense moving even against the terrible Bears. This number has been climbing throughout the week and you need to jump on it now.

BEARS TE COLE KMET OVER 33.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Justin Fields showed us over and over again last year that he loves throwing the ball to his tight end Cole Kmet. He was targeted nearly 100 times over the course of the 2021 season. Kmet went over this 33.5 receiving total in five of his last seven games. No reason to think that this trend will not continue this season.

SAINTS @ FALCONS (1pm ET)

FALCONS QB MARCUS MARIOTA OVER 24.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)

Mariota takes over as the starting quarterback in Atlanta. He gets the talented Saints pass rush in his first game which means he'll be running for his life. The Falcons know to move the ball on offense, they've got to use what makes him special, his legs. This number is way too low and you need to take advantage before the books catch up.

FALCONS TE KYLE PITTS OVER 56.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The best offensive weapon on the Falcons is easily Kyle Pitts. The man is basically a large wide receiver who can out muscle any cornerback or safety that covers him. He will be heavily targeted every single game. Pitts averaged 60 yards receiving per game during his rookie season and we can only hope that gets better in his sophomore campaign.

BROWNS @ PANTHERS (1pm ET)

PANTHERS QB BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (+135)

You can believe what you want but Baker Mayfield wants to win this game more than any other game he's ever played. He wants to stick it to Cleveland and make it hurt. The fact that you're getting plus odds on this makes it even more tempting to jump all over it.

BROWNS RB KAREEM HUNT OVER 31.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)

Kareem returns to the field after missing the end of the 2021 season. When he is healthy, the Browns give him a pretty consistent workload whether it be on the ground or through the air. He covered this number in the first six games of last season. The Browns did not grant him his trade request this off-season, but he'll be showing off any chance he gets for his free agency this upcoming off-season.

PATRIOTS @ DOLPHINS (1pm ET)

DOLPHINS RB CHASE EDMONDS OVER 17.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

This will be his first game with the Dolphins, so we don't know exactly what his role will be but that won't stop me from speculating. We have all seen his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and I'm sure new head coach Mike McDaniel has as well. This is such a low number for a guy of his pass catching talent.

PATRIOTS RB RHAMONDRE STEVENSON OVER 36.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)

There is no doubt that this will be a shared backfield but even in a timeshare, 37 yards is not a lot of yards to achieve. The Dolphins were a middle of the pack defense when it came to rushing yards allowed. If he gets his typical 10-12 carries a game, I have no doubt that he will get to this number.

JAGUARS @ COMMANDERS (1pm ET)

COMMANDERS RB ANTONIO GIBSON OVER 56.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)

The Jaguars were in the bottom third of the league against the rush in 2021. Antonio Gibson will be forced into the starting running back position to start the season because of the unfortunate situation with Brian Robinson. The backbone of this offensive system is running the ball to set up the pass. Wentz won't be able to go deep without a rushing attack and I think Gibson gets there this week.

JAGUARS RB TRAVIS ETIENNE OVER 21.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

The NFL world has been waiting for a full year for the debut of Travis Etienne. Trevor Lawrence knows his skill set better than most anyone and he'll look to him a lot in the screen game. The goal is to get this man into space as much as possible. He won't be used between the tackles but on the outside in various ways.

SINGLE GAME PARLAY SPECIAL (+650):
Jaguars +7.5
Antonio Gibson 50+ Rushing Yards
Christian Kirk 45+ Receiving Yards
Travis Etienne 15+ Receiving Yards
J.D. McKissic 20+ Receiving Yards

GIANTS @ TITANS (4:25pm ET)

GIANTS WR KENNY GOLLADAY UNDER 33.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The Giants have made one of the worst free agent signings in the history of the league. Kenny Golladay has been a huge bust for this organization and if you watched the preseason, he showed no signs of changing his ways. This team is moving forward with the other pieces in this offense. No way he is targeted more than a couple times in this game.

TITANS RB DERRICK HENRY OVER 22.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-125)

The Titans offense will have to run through their king. They do not have a true number one wide receiver anymore as they traded away A.J. Brown. We all assume that Henry is healthy and that means Tennessee will use the run game to move the ball down the field against this Giants defense. He averaged 24 carries per game over the nine games he played in 2021.

CHIEFS @ CARDINALS (4:25pm ET)

CHIEFS RB JERICK MCKINNON OVER 10.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

This may be my favorite bet on the board this week. I know no one was talking about McKinnon this offseason but they like him a lot. They trust him as a third down pass catching back. In his last four games of the season including the playoffs he averaged four catches and over 47 yards per game. There isn't a lot to know about this Chiefs offense besides Travis Kelce but this one I feel great about.

CHIEFS QB PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 19.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)

We have all seen the crazy things he's done on a football field. He loves to get out of the pocket and make magic happen. When there just isn't anywhere to go with the ball, he has no problem taking off and running with it. Mahomes had 19 or more yards rushing in seven of his last eight games last season which included the playoffs. I like him to get to 20 yards without much problem in Week 1.

PACKERS @ VIKINGS (4:25pm ET)

VIKINGS WR ADAM THIELEN ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN (+180)

All this dude does is find the end zone. He has back to back seasons of 10+ touchdown receptions. He caught 10 in 2021 playing in just 13 games. Kirk Cousins trusts him implicitly in the red zone. The Packers defense will have most of their attention on Justin Jefferson, I love this bet especially with those odds.

VIKINGS WR K.J. OSBORN OVER 18.5 LONGEST RECEPTION (-120)

He is the forgotten man in this Vikings wide receiver core. He is not a volume wide out, he's the deep threat over the top. Looking over his game log from 2021, Osborn went over this prop in 7 of his last 10 games played. Kirk will take a few deep shots in this game and most of the time they'll be in the direction of K.J.

SINGLE GAME PARLAY SPECIAL (+300):
Game Total OVER 37.5 Points
Justin Jefferson 80+ Receiving Yards
Kirk Cousins OVER 254.5 Passing Yards
A.J. Dillon 45+ Rushing Yards

RAIDERS @ CHARGERS (4:25pm ET)

RAIDERS QB DEREK CARR OVER 265.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

I fully believe that this game will be a shootout. The Raiders will have to pass the ball to keep up with this Chargers high powered offense. He has a brand new shiny toy to play with in Davante Adams and you have to think they'll showcase him in a big way.

RAIDERS WR DAVANTE ADAMS OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (-115)

See above!

BUCCANEERS @ COWBOYS (8:25pm ET)

BUCCANEERS RB LEONARD FOURNETTE OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-115)

There were few more consistent target monsters than Fournette last season. Tom Brady loves to dump it off to his big back and let him go to work. He had more than four catches in six of the last seven games of last season. I like him .

COWBOYS RB TONY POLLARD OVER 53.5 TOTAL YARDS (-115)

The Cowboys will go to Ezekiel Elliott early and often on the ground but the Buccaneers have a very stout run defense. Dallas will have to change course and get the screen game going and that means Tony Pollard. He brings a different element to their offense that Elliott just can't do anymore.