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DIEHARDS THURSDAY NIGHT PROP BETS week 12 2022
SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 183-191
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 5-14
BILLS @ LIONS (12:30pm ET)
BILLS WR STEFON DIGGS OVER 91.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
There was a disconnect between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs in last week's win over the Browns. It got to the point where Sean McDermott had to pull him aside and have a heart to heart with him on the sidelines. Normally Allen and Diggs are like one mind out there on the field. There is no way that happens two games in a row especially against a defensive secondary like the Lions. He has been over this prop number in six of the Bills 10 games this season. I think he shows out on Turkey Day.
BILLS WR ISAIAH MCKENZIE UNDER 22.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Buffalo seemed eager to use him early this season but that has slowed down as we've moved forward. He has been under this receiving total in four of their last five games. Isaiah had just one target in last week's win over the Browns.
LIONS QB JARED GOFF UNDER 34.5 PASSING ATTEMPTS (-115)
LIONS RB JAMAAL WILLIAMS OVER 13.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS (-120)
The Lions have won three straight games and they've done it by running the ball. They have taken down Goff's attempts nearly 10 per game and increased Jamaal Williams' attempts. Jared has been under this prop total in four of their last five games and Jamaal has been over in seven of his last eight games. I know most people think that this game will be a shootout especially when you look at that 54 total. The Lions will want to slow this game down with long drawn out drives.
GIANTS @ COWBOYS (4:30pm ET)
COWBOYS RB TONY POLLARD OVER 18.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
Tony exploded for 109 yards on six catches last weekend against the Vikings. You see this number being just 18.5 and think wow that's too low. You look a little deeper and you see he was under this number in seven of the eight previous games. My hope is that the Cowboys will continue to use him in space. That's where he thrives and can do the most damage. The Giants allow 26 yards per game through the air to the running back position.
COWBOYS TE DALTON SCHULTZ OVER 39.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
After a slow injury plagued start to the season, Schultz has slowly shown his form of last season. Prior to last week, he had cleared this prop total in three straight games. The Vikings game got out of control and Tony Pollard did all the work through the air. The Giants give up the fifth most receiving yards to the tight end position on the season.
GIANTS QB DANIEL JONES OVER 31.5 PASSING ATTEMPTS (+100)
Daniel threw the ball 37 times in the first matchup between these two teams. I feel like the game script will have the Giants behind in the second half which will force him to throw the ball. He threw the ball 44 times in last week's loss to the Lions because of similar circumstances.
GIANTS RB SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 72.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)
He is the entire Giants offense. Everything runs through Saquon and if I know that, the Cowboys know that. He has been over this rushing total in six of his 10 games played this season including the first matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas is allowing 108 yards per game on the ground. The workload will be there for him to get to this number.
PATRIOTS @ VIKINGS (8:20pm ET)
VIKINGS UNDER 22.5 TEAM TOTAL POINTS (-115)
I do not trust the Vikings in primetime and it is mostly because of Kirk Cousins. Since 2015, Cousins' first full season as a starter in the NFL, his 16 losses in prime-time games are the most among all quarterbacks. Bill Belichick knows how to shut down a team's best weapon which is Justin Jefferson. The Patriots defense has been terrific allowing just 16.7 points per game on the season and only 7.7 over their last three. Minnesota was held to just three points by the Cowboys last week who is the only team better than the Patriots in that category. I see this game ending like 16-10.
PATRIOTS TE HUNTER HENRY UNDER 23.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
Henry has not been involved in the offense while Jonnu has been out targeting him week in and week out. He has been under this prop in three of their last four games. The Vikings sit middle of the pack in covering the tight end position and kept Dalton Schultz under this number last week. I also don't trust Mac Jones, they rely on the run to keep the offense moving and use the pass when necessary.
PATRIOTS QB MAC JONES UNDER 7.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
DraftKings has gotten a little crazy with this rushing prop. I know Mac had a weird three game stretch where he ran for 19 yards or more in each. In the Patriots last two games, he has come back down to earth with totals under three yards. The last thing that anyone on the Patriots sidelines want to see is Mac Jones running with the ball.