Diehards Sunday Prop Bets Week 4 2023

DIEHARDS - WEEK 4 - SUNDAY SLATE

Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com (@DrewPhelps05)
All Props Based off DraftKings Odds

SINGLE PROP 2023 REGULAR SEASON RECORD:
WEEK 4: 0-2
OVERALL: 52-55

FALCONS @ JAGUARS (9:30a - LONDON)

JAGUARS WR CALVIN RIDLEY ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN (+135)

This just seems too obvious right? The narrative is there for him to score against the team that traded him away for nothing basically. He dropped 2 touchdowns in last week’s loss to the Texans.

FALCONS TE KYLE PITTS OVER 32.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

There is something about London and Kyle Pitts. He scored his first NFL touchdown overseas and for a long time it was the only place he had scored. The Jaguars allow about 50 yards per game to the tight end position. Pitts has been over this mark in 2 of his 3 games this season.

RAVENS @ BROWNS (1:00p)

RAVENS QB LAMAR JACKSON UNDER 20.25 FANTASY POINTS (-120)

The Browns defense is legit, might be the best in the league by a fair margin. Cleveland has kept the quarterback in check this season allowing them to score just 7 fantasy points per game over the first three. They are going to force him to throw and we know that’s the weaker part of his game. He also won’t have OBJ out there.

BROWNS WR AMARI COOPER OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-115)

BROWNS WR AMARI COOPER OVER 59.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)

These props are just way too low for what this guy is doing with Deshaun Watson. It’s become obvious that he’s the go-to guy especially the last 2 weeks. The way you attack the Ravens is through the air especially as beat up as their secondary is right now. Cooper has had 7 catches in each of the last two games and at least 90 receiving yards.

COMMANDERS @ EAGLES (1:00p)

EAGLES WR DEVONTA SMITH OVER 12.5 FANTASY POINTS (-110)

I am an admitted Commanders fan and the Slim Reaper has crushed this secondary basically every time since he entered the league. He has been over this number in his last two games against the Commanders. Smith has been over this total in 2 of his 3 games this season. Washington allows 26 points per game to the wide receiver position.

EAGLES -5.5 1ST HALF LINE (-110)

I believe the Eagles get up early in this one. They are the far superior team and there’s been too much talk about their play behind subpar. Jalen has looked human through 3 games and this one we get 2022 Hurts.

DOLPHINS @ BILLS (1:00p)

DOLPHINS WR JAYLEN WADDLE OVER 60.5 (-125)

The odds for a lot of favorite props are not advantageous right now. I’d love to see either Tua or Allen have their passing TDs move to 2.5 and I’d bet them. This one is pretty good compared to Tyreek and Stefon. Everyone in the world is expecting this game to be a shootout. Waddle has been over this prop in each of his last two meetings with the Bills (both games since McDaniel took over). Buffalo’s numbers tell you that they are the 3rd best in the league against the wide receiver position but they have yet to face any offense even close to the Dolphins.

VIKINGS @ PANTHERS (1:00p)

PANTHERS WR ADAM THIELEN OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-115)

PANTHERS WR ADAM THIELEN OVER 49.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

PANTHERS WR ADAM THIELEN OVER 11.5 FANTASY POINTS (-115)

We’ve got another huge narrative in this one. Thielen gets to face his former team and you know that they are going to go to him early and often. After a slow start, he’s been a consistent reliable option for Bryce Young and Andy Dalton in this Panthers offense. Adam has 18 catches the last two games for 199 yards. This seems like an easy winner here.

VIKINGS TE T.J. HOCKENSON OVER 12 FANTASY POINTS (-115)

The reception odds are terrible. He has been over this number in his last two games and Week 1 he missed it by ½ a point. He has had at least 8 targets in each game this year. The Panthers have allowed 4 catches for 52 yards per game to the tight end spot, but T.J. is the best they’ve faced this season.

BENGALS @ TITANS (1:00p)

I REALLY DON’T LIKE MUCH IN THIS GAME. I’D TAKE THE JA’MARR CHASE RECEPTIONS BUT THE ODDS AREN’T GREAT. I’M LIKELY GOING TO AVOID THIS GAME COMPLETELY.

STEELERS @ TEXANS (1:00p)

STEELERS RB JAYLEN WARREN OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS (-130)

The Texans allow the 4th most points to the running back position. Jaylen has hit this prop in all 3 games this season. He’s had at least 4 targets in every game as well.

STEELERS RB NAJEE HARRIS OVER 57.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

For almost all of the same reasons I love Najee in this game. He finally got 19 carries and over this rushing total last week against the Raiders and they are actually statistically better against the run. If Najee can’t get it done against the Texans, it’s going to be a long season for the former Crimson Tide back.

TEXANS TEAM TOTAL POINTS UNDER 19.5 (-108)

I know everyone is excited about the Texans after their big win against the Jaguars last week. That excitement will be short lived when they face the Steelers. This is not a game that Mike Tomlin loses. T.J. Watt is going to have his way with this Houston offensive line.

RAMS @ COLTS (1:00p)

RAMS WR PUKA NACUA OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (-110)

While Cooper Kupp is still out, this guy has been the target monster for Matt Stafford. Nacua is averaging 14 targets per game through the first 3 games. Stafford has always been a QB that locks on a favorite target dating back to his days with Calvin Johnson. The Colts allow 16 receptions per game to the wide receiver position.

COLTS WR MICHAEL PITTMAN OVER 63.5 RECEIVING YARDS (+100)

I like to bet with the volume and the volume is there with Michael Pittman. Despite only going over this number in 2 of his 3 games, Pittman has caught at least 8 balls on at least 11 targets in each of the first 3 games this season. It’s hard not to go over 63 yards receiving on 8 catches. It should not worry you that Anthony Richardson is back, he accomplished those numbers with and without him at QB.

BUCCANEERS @ SAINTS (1:00p)

WE STILL DON’T KNOW WHO IS GOING TO BE PLAYING QUARTERBACK FOR THE SAINTS ON SUNDAY. I’D LOVE TO SEE CHRIS OLAVE MOVE TO 5.5 RECEPTIONS AND THE ODDS IMPROVE BUT IT HASN’T MOVED. NOTHING STANDS OUT BECAUSE OF THE QUESTIONS.

BRONCOS @ BEARS (1:00p)

BRONCOS RB JAVONTE WILLIAMS OVER 70.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS (+110)

This is the game for Javonte, this is the breakout for him. The Bears give up the second most fantasy points to the running back position. Despite his low production in fantasy, he has the workload in this offense. When you watch him play, he still has that break tackle ability. The production for Javonte has increased in each game this season.

BEARS RB ROSCHON JOHNSON OVER 31.5 RUSHING YARDS (-145)

I’m hoping this jumps up one yard so the odds improve. I just mentioned how the Bears give up the second most fantasy points to the running back position, well the Broncos are the first after what happened last weekend in Miami. Johnson has gone over this rushing total in his last two games and those were betting opponents when it comes to stopping the run.

RAIDERS @ CHARGERS (4:05p)

RAIDERS WR JAKOBI MEYERS OVER 43.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I really love this prop and it doesn’t even matter who plays quarterback in my eyes. He has been a consistent complimentary piece to Davante Adams dominance. In his 2 games, he has had double digit targets with at least 7 catches and 81 yards. The Chargers defense gives up the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position allowing nearly 270 yards per game through the air. I would actually BET the alternate 50+ receiving yards at +115 to get those better odds.

CARDINALS @ 49ERS (4:25p)

49ERS WR DEEBO SAMUEL OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (+120)

49ERS TE GEORGE KITTLE OVER 41.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

The Cardinals defense has been better than a lot of people expected this season, just look what they did to the Cowboys in Week 3. I believe in the 49ers offense a lot more than Dallas, they are good week in and week out. Deebo has at least 5 catches in each of his first 3 games. He has gone over this number in 2 of his last 3 games against the Cardinals. I know big George has gone over this number just once this season but Arizona allowed the 4th most yards per game to the tight end position (62.3). Kittle has gone over this yardage total against the Cardinals in 7 of his last 8 games. I expect solid performances from both these guys tomorrow.

PATRIOTS @ COWBOYS (4:25p)

PATRIOTS RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER (+235)

You don’t think they are going to do what they can to get Elliott into the end zone in his first trip back to Dallas since leaving this offseason. He has had this game circled on his calendar at home. What better place to score his first touchdown with the Patriots than in Dallas.

PATRIOTS WR JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (+130)

Prior to last week against the Jets, he had been over this prop in the two other games. After completely dominating their first two opponents on the season, they lost their top cornerback and allowed 17 catches for 189 yards. I think he easily clears this number on Sunday.