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DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 17 2022
SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 270-271
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 5-15
BRONCOS @ CHIEFS (1:00p ET)
CHIEFS RB JERICK MCKINNON OVER 33.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
Jerick went over his prop number last week despite leaving the game early with an injury. The number is climbing but still not high enough for me to ignore it. In the last matchup with this Broncos team a few weeks ago, McKinnon finished with over 100 yards receiving. I'm not saying he's gonna do that again but he can get to 35 without a problem in this game.
CHIEFS QB PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 36.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (+100)
Mahomes has been over this pass attempts number in three of the Chiefs last five games. I know that isn't as good as you'd like to hear but with the lack of running game, Patrick is having to put the team on his back. I thought he'd go under this number against the Texans in a blowout but he cleared 40 in that game. The odds make this even more intriguing.
SAINTS @ EAGLES (1:00p ET)
EAGLES QB GARDNER MINSHEW OVER 31.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-130)
The Eagles will start the mustache once again. The guy looked solid last week on the road in a tough environment. He threw the ball 40 times in a shootout last week and while I don't think this will be a high scoring game, I do think they let Gardner unload the ball. This is his showcase to maybe get another starting job in the league. The Eagles can lock up the number one overall seed in the NFC with a win, they want this game at home on Sunday.
EAGLES RB MILES SANDERS UNDER 76.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Miles has been under this prop number in three of his last four games. He has said over and over again, he doesn't care about fantasy and stats. Sanders just wants to win games. The Cowboys and Saints are very similar when you look at their numbers against the run and he only averaged 3.1 yards per carry. I just don't think you can trust this guy week to week. They are a great running team but there's so many options out there.
SAINTS WR RASHID SHAHEED OVER 35.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
It is hard to ignore what Shaheed has done over the last four weeks for the Saints. He has been over this receiving total in each of those games. The Saints are missing so much at wide receiver and he's had at least four targets in each of the last three games. Andy Dalton has to throw the ball to someone and he's been the guy.
JAGUARS @ TEXANS (1:00p ET)
JAGUARS RB TRAVIS ETIENNE OVER 70.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
After a mid-season lull for the second year back out of Clemson, he's had a resurgence over the last two weeks. He's crossed the 80 yards rushing in back to back games. Now he gets the matchup that all running backs drool over, the Houston Texans. We all know how bad the Texans are at stopping the run and he should get to this number without any problems. I really don't need to give you much more than that.
COLTS @ GIANTS (1:00p ET)
GIANTS WR RICHIE JAMES OVER 37.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
It's just hard to ignore the season that Richie James has had for the Giants this season. He's been the go-to guy when they've needed the biggest catches. Richie has been over this prop number in five of his last six games including eight catches for over 100 yards in last week's loss to the Vikings. The Colts are one of the better teams in the league against the wide receiver but it doesn't seem to matter when it comes to James.
GIANTS RB SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 24.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
We know how important Barkley is to this offense. He is the engine that keeps them moving with more than 20 touches each week. Barkley has been over this prop number in back to back games and the Colts allow 42 receiving yards per game to the running back position. I don't see the Giants changing their game plan in this game against the Colts, Saquon will continue to get fed the ball.
BEARS @ LIONS (1:00p ET)
LIONS WR D.J. CHARK OVER 47.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
LIONS WR D.J. CHARK OVER 21.5 LONGEST RECEPTION (-110)
I really wanted to jump on Jared Goff throwing more than 1.5 touchdown passes but the odds are not good at -200. I will instead look to one of his weapons because Chark has been a stud down the stretch for the Lions. He has had 94 yards or more in three of the last four games, two of which at home. He did not participate in the first matchup between these two teams but the Bears allow 150 yards per game to the wide receiver position.
LIONS RB JAMAAL WILLIAMS UNDER 48.5 RUSHING YARDS (-105)
LIONS RB D'ANDRE SWIFT OVER 39.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Jamaal has really slowed down over the last month of the season. Whether it is his play on the field or his workload decreasing, he hasn't crossed 40 yards in the last four games. Williams had 59 yards in the first game between these two in Detroit but I feel like Swift has been getting more run late in the season. I know how bad the Bears are against the run but I think it's D'Andre Swift that goes over. Swift has been over his number in two of his last four games.
BROWNS @ COMMANDERS (1:00p ET)
COMMANDERS RB BRIAN ROBINSON OVER 80.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)
This is just a must bet this weekend. The Commanders want to run the ball and Brian Robinson will be the only game in town as Antonio Gibson has been ruled out. Robinson had been over this rushing prop in three of his last four games and the only one he didn't was against San Francisco's top run defense. Cleveland has the fifth worst run defense in the league allowing 117 yards per game on the ground. The Commanders will look to control this game with the run game and limit Carson Wentz's exposure to the big mistake.
BROWNS WR AMARI COOPER OVER 55.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
I believe this is going to be a monster game for Amari. Any Washington fan knows how much this guy has crushed our souls over the years. In his time with the Cowboys, he faced this franchise seven times and averaged over five catches and 80 yards per game. He will face a banged up below average corner in Benjamin St-Juste.
PANTHERS @ BUCCANEERS (1:00p ET)
BUCCANEERS WR CHRIS GODWIN OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (-125)
I've spoken about this for months now, Tom Brady loves Chris Godwin. He is a better quarterback when Godwin is healthy and on the field for the GOAT. Four times in the last five games has Godwin gone over this prop number. As long as he plays the full game, Godwin will hit this prop with ease.
BUCCANEERS RB LEONARD FOURNETTE OVER 26.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Fournette had a monster game last week against the Cardinals. He touched the ball 29 times for 162 yards. The Panthers defense has really stepped up to stop the run. They have allowed just 82 yards per game over their last three games. While they have improved against the run, Carolina lost their best cover corner in Jaycee Horn. Leonard has crossed this receiving prop in his last four games played.
DOLPHINS @ PATRIOTS (1:00p ET)
DOLPHINS WR JAYLEN WADDLE OVER 54.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
There is not a lot to like in this game because there are not a lot of options. We've got a lot of question marks with new quarterbacks, injuries and a lackluster offense. I think the one guy you can count on even with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback is Waddle. He's the guy who will take those shallow crossers and take them to the house like he did last week against the Packers. Waddle has been over 100 yards receiving in back to back games.
CARDINALS @ FALCONS (1:00p ET)
FALCONS WR DRAKE LONDON OVER 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Desmond knows where to put the ball in this offense and that's in the hands of Drake London. Ridder threw for over 200 yards last week for the first time and 96 yards of those went to London. Drake has been over this number in three straight games and two of those were with Ridder at the helm of the offense. There is little to nothing to bet on in this game especially with David Blough starting for the Cardinals but this one I'm gonna jump on.
49ERS @ RAIDERS (4:05p ET)
49ERS RB CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY OVER 108.5 RUSH & RECEIVE YARDS (-115)
It should be against the law for me not to put this bet into my article. McCaffrey disappointed against the Commanders but the Raiders defense is nowhere near the level of Washington. He had easily cleared this prop in the three games previous. He will be used early and often in this game. The Raiders allow 94 yards per game on the ground and 154 yards per game through the air.
49ERS TE GEORGE KITTLE OVER 45.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Back to back monster weeks for George Kittle with Brock Purdy at the helm of this 49ers offense. These two Iowa kids have found a great connection which has put Kittle over this receiving prop in their last two games. We've seen tight ends like Travis Kelce have huge games against this Raiders defense. Las Vegas allows 50 yards per game through the air to the tight end position.
JETS @ SEAHAWKS (4:05p ET)
JETS WR GARRETT WILSON OVER 65.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
If you take out last week's crazy cold and windy game with Zach Wilson playing quarterback, Wilson has been over this receiving total in four straight games. We have talked about how special this dude is and will be in this league. Seattle allows 219 passing yards per game and about half of those are going to go to Wilson on Sunday.
JETS TE TYLER CONKLIN OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
The Seahawks are awful against the tight end position. They are third worst against the position in the league when it comes to yards allowed at 65 per game. Tyler has been over this prop number in two of the last three games. Kelce put up 113 last week and Kittle put up 93 two weeks ago. I'm not saying he's at their level but he can get to 30 against this team.
VIKINGS @ PACKERS (4:05p ET)
VIKINGS WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON OVER 97.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)
I normally would not have bet this earlier in the week until I heard the comments from Jaire Alexander about Justin Jefferson. He said that Jefferson's performance in Week 1 was a fluke. I know Justin heard that and will demand the ball even more from Kirk Cousins. This will be a statement game from the best receiver in the game against their division rivals. The Vikings can basically end the Packers season with this win and how better than Jefferson curb stomping them into submission once again.
VIKINGS QB KIRK COUSINS OVER 22.5 PASS COMPLETIONS (-135)
Kirk Cousins has been over this number in five of their last seven games. He went over this number in Week 1 against the Packers in Minnesota. I just spoke about the bulletin board material that Jaire Alexander gave Justin Jefferson for this game. Kirk Cousins' job will be to just get the ball in the general area of his best receiver and let him do what he does.
RAMS @ CHARGERS (4:25p ET)
RAMS TE TYLER HIGBEE OVER 40.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
Baker Mayfield found his go-to target in last week's thumping of the Broncos in Los Angeles. Tyler Higbee caught nine balls for 94 yards and what would make you believe that Baker won't target him double digit times once again. The Chargers allow the tight end position to catch 55 yards per game. I love this bet.
RAMS RB CAM AKERS OVER 69.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
The Chargers are not good against the run. They are basically second worst to the Texans in all defensive running categories. He carried the ball 23 times for over 100 yards and I could easily see him doing that again against this Chargers defense. Brandon Staley's defensive strategy is to not allow the big play and uses an umbrella coverage. He basically dares his opponents to run the ball and throw underneath.
CHARGERS WR KEENAN ALLEN OVER 72.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
So much for Jalen Ramsey and this elite Rams defense from 2021. They are allowing opposing wide receivers to catch 161 yards per game through the air. Keenan Allen has been money in the bank for Justin Herbert since returning from injury. It should be no surprise to anyone that the Chargers are playing better on offense with him back in the mix. Allen has been over this prop number in five of his last six games.