Best Prop Bets Sunday week 13 2021
It was a 2-3 night on Thursday between the Cowboys and Saints. Pollard had the huge toss run but couldn't get it going through the air. That brings my grand total for the season to 158-197. Time to look at the Week 13 Sunday slate.
If you've got questions heading into tonight's game hit me up @Drew_Phelps83 on twitter.
BUCCANEERS @ FALCONS
Matt Ryan UNDER 252.5 Passing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
The Buccaneers defense is getting healthy and it's showing in the stats. They only allow 247 yards throughout the air on the season but only 220 over the last three. Matt Ryan has been under this number in four of his last five games. He actually hasn't cleared 200 in four of his last five games.
Rob Gronkowski OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
It looks like Gronk is back to full health when you look at his performance over the last two weeks. He had six catches on eight targets for 71 yards against the Giants two weeks ago and seven catches on nine targets for 123 last week against the Colts. Brady targets players he trusts and there is no one on that roster he trusts more than Gronk.
CHARGERS @ BENGALS
Tee Higgins OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards -120 (1 Unit)
As defenses have adjusted to account for Ja'Marr Chase's big play ability, Tee Higgins has been the beneficiary of that switch. You can see a direct correlation in the production for these two wide receivers. Tee has been over this receiving total in four of his last five games including a 100 yard effort last weekend.
Ja'Marr Chase UNDER 23.5 Longest Reception -120 (1 Unit)
As I mentioned, defenses have adjusted to Chase's big play ability. He has not had a catch over 21 yards in four straight games. The Chargers secondary is banged up but Brandon Staley's biggest emphasis on defense is not allowing the deep ball. He doesn't care how many rushing yards they give up but he will not get beat deep.
VIKINGS @ LIONS
Jared Goff UNDER 235.5 Passing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Goff has been awful this season in Detroit. The numbers have slowly gotten worse as the season has gone along. He has crossed this passing total one time in his last six games played. It's a combination of two things, he is not very good and he doesn't have good weapons around him. On top of that, his best weapon in the passing game, D'Andre Swift is out for a few weeks. No way he goes over this number, he only had 203 in their first matchup against the Vikings.
Lions UNDER 19.5 Team Total Points -115 (1 Unit)
If you take out the Lions week one furious late game comeback against the 49ers, the Lions have been under this point total in all 10 of their other games. They just don't have the horses and I'm not saying that the Vikings defense is anything to write home about but they can stop the Lions. The Lions scored only 17 in their first matchup this season.
CARDINALS @ BEARS
Darnell Mooney OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (1 Unit)
Back to back 100+ yard games for Mooney and both of those games have been with Andy Dalton under center. Dalton starts once again and he faces a banged up Cardinals secondary. This is a smash spot for Mooney.
GIANTS @ DOLPHINS
Jaylen Waddle OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
He has cleared his receiving yards prop in six of his last seven games. Waddle has had eight plus catches in three of his last four games. This Giants secondary allows 240 yards through the air per game and Waddle gets the bulk of the target share.
EAGLES @ JETS
Jalen Hurts OVER 48.5 Rush Yards -115 (1 Unit)
We've spoken about this at length over the last few weeks but the Eagles have committed to the run game. Whether it's Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, or Jordan Howard, they are all running the ball and having success doing it. Hurts has been over 50 yards rushing in six straight games and I don't see any sign of slowing down especially not against this Jets defense who allow 128 yards per game on the ground.
COLTS AT TEXANS
Tyrod Taylor OVER 17.5 Rushing Yards -120 (1 Unit)
Tyrod has covered his rushing yards prop in three straight games since returning from injury. He helps keep this offense moving with his legs. The Colts are allowing 137 yards per game on the ground over their last three.
Jonathan Taylor OVER 105.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
This is a huge number for a prop but this is the only player in the only matchup that I'd be willing to take this bet. The Jaguars are allowing 150 yards on the ground per game over their last three. We've seen Derrick Henry rack up huge games against this team and I think Taylor does the same.
FOOTBALL TEAM @ RAIDERS
Antonio Gibson OVER 3.5 Receptions +130 (1 Unit)
Antonio Gibson OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Gibson was utilized to the fullest in the Football team's win over the Seahawks on Monday Night. He had 29 carries and seven catches in that game for a total of 146 yards. We've got no J.D. McKissic in this game and I'm not believing in the Wendell Smallwood talk. I love the plus odds because I think he gets 4-5 catches easily.
Derek Carr OVER 6.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Carr is not the biggest runner but he'll move when the pocket collapses. The Football Team has allowed a quarterback to go over this rushing total in 8 of the 11 games this season. Two of those three games were against quarterbacks who are not known for running like Tom Brady and Teddy Bridgewater. Carr has been over this in two of his last three. I watch a lot of football team games and they always leave huge holes in the middle of the defense on third down for the quarterback to escape.
Logan Thomas OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
I know Thomas only had 31 in his return to the field on Monday night but Ron Rivera said he'd be on a limited snap count. Even with limited snaps, Thomas still had six targets for three catches in their win. He gets a Raiders defense which has been eaten alive by the tight end position this season. They've allowed a tight end well over this number in seven of their last nine games including two games of over 100 yards receiving.
JAGUARS @ RAMS
Jaguars UNDER 17.5 Team Total Points -125 (1 Unit)
The Jaguars have been under this point total in five straight games. Out of those five games, I'd say only two of them were actually good defenses. Jacksonville only scores 15.7 points per game on the season and only 13.7 over their last three. The Rams defense has struggled lately but this seems like a great spot for a get right game especially with the Jalen Ramsey revenge game narrative.
RAVENS @ STEELERS
Diontae Johnson OVER 6.5 Receptions -110 (1 Unit)
Diontae Johnson OVER 73.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
I don't think there is a receiver more regularly targeted than Diontae Johnson week in and week out. Just listen to these target numbers over the last six games, 13-13-6-13-13-14. He has caught 9-6-5-7-7-9 over those six games. He's been over this receiving yards total in four of his last five games. Baltimore ranks last in the NFL in passing yards allowed giving up 275 yards per game through the air.
Marquise Brown OVER 4.5 Receptions -140 (1 Unit)
Brown has been a target and catch machine for Lamar Jackson this season. I just love how they are using him this season. In his last four games played, target totals of 14-12-13-10 and catches of 5-9-6-8. The juice is a little high on this one but I think it pays off pretty easily against this Steelers secondary which is allowing 234 yards per game through the air.
49ERS @ SEAHAWKS
Brandon Aiyuk OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
We will not have Deebo Samuel in this game which will put all those targets on a combination of Brandon Aiyuk and likely George Kittle. Even with Samuel in the lineup, Aiyuk has been way over this receiving total in three of his last four games.
Elijah Mitchell OVER 87.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Elijah is the man in this 49ers backfield and there is no question about that. We know as fantasy players that is a valuable spot for consistent production. He's been over this rushing total in four of his last five games. Did you watch what the Football team did to this Seahawks rushing defense on Monday night? I fully expect the same this week.
BRONCOS @ CHIEFS
Mecole Hardman OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
This number is just entirely too low. He has been over this receiving total in every game this season except for one. I'm not saying he's been way over it but over it nonetheless. He gets his 2-5 catches each week and easily gets over this number.