Best Prop Bets Sunday week 9 2021
After a 1-4 Thursday night, that brings me to 100-123 for the season. It's time to get back on track with the Week 9 Sunday slate.
If you've got questions heading into tonight's game hit me up @Drew_Phelps83 on twitter.
BROWNS @ BENGALS
Bengals OVER 2.5 Team Total Touchdowns -145 (1 Unit)
The Bengals have scored two or more touchdowns in every game this season. They average nearly 28 points per game for the season. The Browns defense allows 22 points per game for the season. There's a reason why the odds aren't great for this one.
Joe Mixon OVER 2.5 Receptions +105 (1 Unit)
He's had 11 targets and 9 receptions over the last three games. He did that despite having nothing in the passing game against the Ravens. I'm considering that game an outlier because Ja'Marr Chase went off. This will be a tight game and all weapons will need to be used.
BRONCOS @ COWBOYS
Jerry Jeudy OVER 4.5 Receptions +115 (1 Unit)
He got his feet back under him last week against the Washington Football team. He had four targets and four catches for just under 40 yards. The Broncos will have to throw the ball to stay in this game against the Cowboys. We assume that Trevon Diggs will be on Courtland Sutton and that would leave Jeudy covered by Anthony Brown.
Javonte Williams OVER 18.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
As I mentioned before, the Broncos will have to throw the ball to stay in this game against the Cowboys. That will include the running backs whether it's Javonte or Melvin Gordon. He has been over this total in two of the last four games and has averaged four targets over those four.
TEXANS @ DOLPHINS
Brandin Cooks OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
As long as Tyrod Taylor is at quarterback for the Texans, I'll take everything related to Brandin Cooks. In the first two games of the season that they played together, Cooks had 21 targets and 14 catches for 210 yards and a touchdown. Even more of a reason to love this bet, the Dolphins allow 291.1 yards per game through the air. This one feels like a lock.
FALCONS @ SAINTS
Kyle Pitts UNDER 64.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
I love Kyle Pitts but without Calvin Ridley in the mix anymore, all of the focus will be on him. I have a feeling that Marshon Lattimore will be on Pitts. He had two catches for 13 yards last week in the Falcons loss to the Panthers. If you take away those two huge 100 yard games against the Jets and Dolphins, he's been under in four of the other five games.
RAIDERS @ GIANTS
Josh Jacobs OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
He has been over this total in the last three games. Jacobs has 9 targets and 8 catches over the last three games. He actually almost had four in a row but missed it by the hook on Monday night football.
Graham Gano OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made +100 (1 Unit)
Gano failed me on Monday night football against the Chiefs but I'm going right back to the well in Week 9. In the eight games this season, he's been over this in five of them. The Raiders have a solid defense which I think will force field goals on multiple occasions.
PATRIOTS @ PANTHERS
Damien Harris OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
It's Damien Harris world and we're all just living in it. He's been over this number in three straight games. The Panthers have allowed 127 yards per game on the ground over the last three games.
Jakobi Meyers OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards -120 (1 Unit)
Meyers hasn't cleared this number since Week 5 against the Texans but I've got a feeling this week. The Panthers defense has fallen apart over the 4-5 games. In just the last three, they are giving up 50+ yards per game more through the air.
BILLS @ JAGUARS
Dan Arnold OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards -120 (1 Unit)
In his four games since joining the Jaguars, he's been over this number in two games. He exploded for 10 targets and 8 catches last week in the Jaguars loss to the Seahawks. He's become a nice safety net for rookie Trevor Lawrence. I want to see what his receptions prop comes out at because I'd be interested in that one too.
Zack Moss OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
He's been way clear of this number in two of the last three games. He's had a total of 15 targets and 11 catches over that span. Going into the season most would have thought that Singletary would get the receiving work but Moss has carved out a nice role. This number seems way too low.
VIKINGS @ RAVENS
Dalvin Cook OVER 17.5 Rush Attempts -120 (1 Unit)
Dalvin has been over this in four of the five games he's played this season. Minnesota wants to establish the run and then hit you with the play action. Mike Zimmer has no problem running his back into the ground, he wants to pound the ball. He does not want to put the game into the hands of Kirk Cousins.
Lamar Jackson UNDER 62.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Before going for 88 yards rushing in their last game against the Bengals, Lamar had been under this number in four straight games. Minnesota for the season is allowing 120 yards per game on the ground but over the last three, they've cut that down to 100. They handled the two headed attack of Zeke and Pollard which forced Cooper Rush to throw the ball.
CHARGERS @ EAGLES
Boston Scott OVER 44.5 Rushing Yards -120 (1 Unit)
The Chargers cannot stop the run. They are the worst team in the league against the run allowing nearly 160 yards per game on the ground. The Chargers have actually gotten worse over the last three allowing 186. Scott rushed the ball 12 times for 60 yards against the Lions last week. No one really believed that he would get the workload but he did and made the most of his touches.
Devonta Smith UNDER 56.5 Receiving Yards -120 (1 Unit)
While the Chargers can't stop the run, they are very good against the pass. They allow just 203 yards per game through the air which is 5th best in the league. Devonta has struggled with consistency as a rookie as he's been under this number in four games and over in four games. He'll be contained in this game by that secondary.
PACKERS @ CHIEFS
Aaron Jones OVER 31.5 Receiving Yards -110 (1 Unit)
The Packers will have a player making his first NFL start at quarterback. They will put him in the best position to succeed which means easy high percentage passes. His best friend will be Aaron Jones and the dump off.
A.J. Dillon OVER 35.5 Rushing Yards -140 (1 Unit)
As I mentioned, we've got a quarterback making his NFL debut and he'll need a lot of help against the Chiefs. Another way to help out a young quarterback is to give him a solid run game and that means lots of Jones and Dillon. We saw Dillon pound out 78 yards on 16 carries against the Cardinals last Thursday. The Chiefs defense allows 121 yards per game on the ground.
CARDINALS @ 49ERS
James Conner OVER 37.5 Rushing Yards -120 (1 Unit)
The 49ers are allowing nearly 140 yards per game on the ground over the last three games. Conner has over this total in two of his last three games. As long as he gets his 10 plus carries which he's had in six of the Cardinals eight games this season, there's no reason he can't cross this low total.
TITANS @ RAMS
Ryan Tannehill OVER 15.5 Rushing Yards
Ryan is going to have to do all he can to carry this team without Derrick Henry. He rushed for 26 yards last week in a game where Henry left early with the injury. He'll have Von Miller and Aaron Donald after him all day.
Titans UNDER 22.5 Team Total Points -115 (1 Unit)
The Titans are going to be without their biggest offensive weapon for at least 6 weeks and that's going to be an adjustment. They have to make that adjustment against one of the best defenses in the league that just got stronger with the addition of Von Miller. Adrian Peterson was great but he's not that guy anymore and I think he struggles to carry the load. A.J. Brown can't carry the team alone, he needs help and without Derrick Henry, it'll be on him.