Best Prop Bets Sunday week 10 2021

By Drew Phelps
Drew Phelps

It was a 2-3 night on Thursday putting me at 113-141. Here's to another exciting Sunday of NFL action.

If you've got questions heading into tonight's game hit me up @Drew_Phelps83 on twitter.
 

FALCONS @ COWBOYS

Cordarrelle Patterson UNDER 11.5 Rush Attempts -140 (1 Unit)

He has slowly been transitioning to more of a receiver role in this offense. He's averaging six targets per game over the last five. He has only been over this rush attempt total in two games all season.

 

 

Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)

I spoke about how he's been transitioning into more of a receiver role on this team. He's averaging six targets over the last five games and he's cleared this yardage total in three of the last five games.

 

 

 

SAINTS @ TITANS

Geoff Swaim OVER 1.5 Receptions -150 (1 Unit)
Geoff Swaim OVER 14.5 Receiving Yards -110 (1 Unit)

I unearthed a gem and his name is Geoff Swaim. Most thought Anthony Firkser would take over as the lead receiving tight end with the departure of Jonnu Smith and early in the season it seemed that way. Over the last few weeks there's been a shift. Firkser's targets have gone down to 1-2 while Swaim's have climbed to 4-5 per game. He's been over both of these totals in back to back games.

 

 

JAGUARS @ COLTS

Dan Arnold OVER 4.5 Receptions +125 (1 Unit)

What's better for a young rookie quarterback than a reliable tight end. He's had 10 and 7 targets over the last two games with 8 and 4 catches. I love the odds for a guy that's so heavily targeted.

 

 

Jonathan Taylor OVER 18.5 Receiving Yards -120 (1 Unit)

Taylor has been over this number in back to back games. This guy is so explosive, it's insane and he could easily cover this with one catch. If he gets his typical 2-3 catches, Taylor should clear this with ease.

 

 

 

BROWNS @ PATRIOTS

D'Ernest Johnson UNDER 79.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)

I think most everyone expects Johnson to light it up like he did against the Broncos the last time he got the start. That wasn't against Bill Belichick, he always takes away the team's best weapon and the Browns run game is their strongest piece. Bill will force Baker to beat him on Sunday and sell out to stop the run.

 

 

BILLS @ JETS

Michael Carter OVER 26.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)

I truly believe that Carter's receiving prop got completely screwed when Mike White went out with his injury. White has shown to be a dinker and dunker with Carter being his favorite target. In their last full game together, Carter had 14 targets which resulted in 9 catches for 95 yards. I'm not saying he's going to do that again but he can definitely catch 4 balls for 30 yards at a minimum.

 

 

Emmanuel Sanders OVER 21.5 Longest Reception -115 (1 Unit)

I went back to the well on him after a zero catch game and it paid off. It just didn't make any sense that Sanders put up a zero in Week 8 against the Dolphins but that wasn't going to happen again against the Jaguars. He gets another good matchup against the Jets secondary in Week 10, jump all over this.

 

 

 

LIONS @ STEELERS

T.J. Hockenson OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
T.J. Hockenson OVER 4.5 Receptions -145 (1 Unit)

We all loved T.J. coming into this season but after a hot start, he cooled off weeks 2-5. Over the last three games for the Lions, he's had 11-9-11 targets for 8-6-10 catches. He's been over this yardage total in two of the last three games. The Steelers have allowed 16 catches for over 200 yards to the tight end position over the last two weeks.

 

 

BUCCANEERS @ THE FOOTBALL TEAM

Tom Brady OVER 2.5 Passing TDs +130 (1 Unit)

The GOAT gets the worst passing defense in the league, what else should you expect but 300+ passing yards and 3+ TDs. I still can't believe the odds haven't come down on this one. Even if they get up big, Brady doesn't come out of games, he'll keep throwing.

 

 

Antonio Gibson UNDER 44.5 Rushing Yards -110 (1 Unit)

I'm not starting him in my fantasy football leagues this week. First of all, he's been under this total in two of his last three games. If that wasn't enough, he's still dealing with a stress fracture in his shin. If that's still not enough, he's facing the second best Rush defense in the league allowing just 78 yards per game on the ground.

 

 

 

PANTHERS @ CARDINALS

Christian McCaffrey OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Christian McCaffrey OVER 4.5 Receptions +105 (1 Unit)

P.J. Walker gets the start this week for Sam Darnold with Cam Newton warming in the bullpen for next week. He has the best weapon in the league behind him with great hands, how does he not dump the ball off to him a half dozen times? He caught five balls for 50+ yards in his first game back from the IR. He could easily do that again this week.

 

 

VIKINGS @ CHARGERS

Austin Ekeler OVER 102.5 Total Yards -115 (1 Unit)

Ekeler should be able to feast against this Vikings defense on Sunday. They allow 260 yards per game through the air and nearly 150 yards on the ground. I would just take the rushing yards but he's been inconsistent with his carry totals. He has cleared 100 total yards in five of the Chargers eight games this season.

 

 

Dalvin Cook OVER 17.5 Longest Rush -115 (1 Unit)

I have no doubt in my mind that Dalvin Cook will break one open against this Chargers rush defense. They are the worst team in the league against the run allowing 161 yards per game on the ground. He has popped one for over 17 yards in three straight games including a 66 yarder against the Ravens last week.

 

 

 

Kirk Cousins UNDER 274.5 Passing Yards -115 (1 Unit)

As bad as the Chargers are against the run, they are equally as good against the pass. They allow under 200 yards per game through the air. Kirk has been well short of this number in two straight games and I don't see how the Vikings won't put the game in the hands of Dalvin Cook against that run defense.

 

 

 

EAGLES @ BRONCOS

Jordan Howard OVER 41.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)

Early in the season I never would have bet this but things have changed a lot. First of all, the Eagles have made a concerted effort to run the ball over the last few weeks. The Broncos rush defense has fallen apart over the last three weeks allowing nearly 125 yards per game on the ground. He went over this number in each of the last two games. I'd also be interested in his anytime touchdown prop.

 

 

Jerry Jeudy OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)

He is bothering fantasy football owners because he's not getting in the end zone but for prop bettors, he's been money. He hit the plus odd catch prop last week and this week I like the receiving yards prop. The Eagles cannot stop anyone through the air, Justin Herbert was 32/28 for 356 yards and Derek Carr was 31/34 for 323 yards two weeks prior.

 

 

 

 

SEAHAWKS @ PACKERS

Aaron Jones OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards -120 (1 Unit)

Take last game out of the mix because of the Jordan Love factor. If he starts again, don't make this bet but it looks like Rodgers will be back. Jones went over this number in two of his last three games with Rodgers at quarterback. This should be an easy winner especially when you see how bad the Seahawks have been against pass catching running backs.

 

 

Seattle Seahawks OVER 2.5 Total Team Touchdowns +100 (1 Unit)

I'll freely admit that this is a gut call but I think this game will be a shootout. You will likely have Russell Wilson vs Aaron Rodgers battling for four quarters and I just can't see it being a 17-14 game. Green Bay is allowing on average 20 points per game.

 

 

 

CHIEFS @ RAIDERS

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 287.5 Passing Yards -115 (1 Unit)

The Chiefs offense just is not the same. Patrick Mahomes is struggling and this match up against the Raiders does not help him at all. Las Vegas allows just over 200 yards per game through the air, ranked 5th best in the league. The last time he cleared this yardage total was against the worst pass defense in the league, Washington.

 

 

Chiefs UNDER 27.5 Team Total Points -120 (1 Unit)

This will be hard to believe but the Chiefs are only scoring 12 points per game over their last three games. They are only scoring 24 for the season. Kansas City's offense just isn't the same and I don't see that improving against this Raiders' defense. They only allow 23 points per game.