Best Prop Bets Sunday week 14 2021
I was out of town on vacation with my family for the Thursday Night Football game. Apologies for not having my props for that game. I went 2-3 on Monday Night. That brings my season long total to 172-209. Let's get into the Week 14 NFL Slate.
If you've got questions heading into tonight's game hit me up @Drew_Phelps83 on twitter.
RAIDERS @ CHIEFS
Travis Kelce OVER 73.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Travis Kelce OVER 5.5 Receptions -135 (1 Unit)
Travis Kelce owns the Raiders, owns them. He had 10 catches for 119 yards in their first matchup on November 14th in Las Vegas. The Raiders have given up the second most points to the Tight End position this season.
JAGUARS @ TITANS
Trevor Lawrence OVER 15.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
The Titans give up the fourth most points to the quarterback position on the season. Trevor has been over this rushing total in three of his last four games. He covered this easily in their first matchup against the Titans earlier this season.
Geoff Swaim OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards -120 (1 Unit)
Swaim has become a reliable target for Ryan Tannehill through all the injuries in his wide receiver core. Before last week's beat down at the hands of the New England Patriots, Swaim had three straight games of at least four catches and 23 yards receiving. This is such a low threshold to hit.
RAVENS @ BROWNS
Marquise Brown OVER 4.5 Receptions -110 (1 Unit)
Brown has had five or more catches in five straight games. He had eight catches in their first matchup with the Browns two weeks ago in Baltimore. He's averaging over 10 targets per game over the last five. There is no doubt that Brown has Lamar's eye quite often in this Ravens passing attack.
Jarvis Landry OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Landry has taken control of this Browns passing attack since the release of OBJ. He caught six balls on 10 targets for over 100 yards in the first matchup against the Ravens in Baltimore. He is that dependable possession receiver for Baker and I have no doubt that he smashes this over.
SAINTS @ JETS
Taysom Hill OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Do you really have any doubt that he won't crush this rushing prop? In the first half against Dallas, it's like they tried to run a real offense with him throwing and then the second half they realized that wasn't working and just rush him all over the yard. The Jets are by far the worst team in the league against the running back which is basically what Taysom plays from the quarterback position.
Marquez Callaway UNDER 34.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
This has been a gold mine the last three four weeks for me. He has been under this number in six of the last seven games. The one he went over was only 37 yards. The targets just aren't there, he's averaged just four over their last four games. He caught just one ball for 13 yards last week with Taysom Hill under center.
SEAHAWKS @ TEXANS
Russell Wilson OVER 237.5 Passing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
This has got to be the break out for Russell Wilson. He hasn't passed for over 250 yards since Week 3 against the Vikings. He gets the Texans this week and it seems like he's slowly getting back to the Russell we know and love in the Fantasy Football world. I just can't help but think he's going to go off this week.
David Johnson UNDER 8.5 Longest Rush -115 (1 Unit)
The Seahawks have stiffened up when it comes to rushing defense over the last few weeks. David Johnson is a shell of his former self and has only two carries all season of over eight yards. He has been under this in six of his last seven games. Johnson just doesn't have the burst anymore.
FALCONS @ PANTHERS
Panthers UNDER 21.5 Team Total Points -110 (1 Unit)
Cam Newton looked horrific in his last start against the Dolphins. While the Panthers had a bye week to get things straightened out, they let go of their offensive coordinator. Cam will move the ball better but it won't be enough to win this game. The Panthers only scored 19 in the first meeting with Sam Darnold running the offense, so I can't see them improving all that much with Cam.
COWBOYS @ FOOTBALL TEAM
Antonio Gibson OVER 68.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Antonio has been everything we wanted him to be and more over the last four weeks, which have resulted in four straight wins for Washington. Gibson has owned the Cowboys since getting drafted, just watch the game film from last Thanksgiving in Dallas. He has been over this rushing total in three straight games because of the volume.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 5.5 Receptions +110 (1 Unit)
When Michael Gallup is in the Cowboys lineup, that gives Dallas the ability to put CeeDee in the slot where he thrives. He was targeted 13 times which resulted in seven catches for 89 yards last week against the Saints from that spot. Being a Washington fan, I am not sure how this secondary has been able to do what it's been doing but it ends this week. They will be exposed by Dak and company.
GIANTS @ CHARGERS
Justin Herbert OVER 272.5 Passing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
This line seems suspicious to me but I'm going to jump all over it because Herbert has cleared 300 yards passing in four of his last five games. The Giants are god awful and are allowing 277 passing yards per game on the road this season. The only reason he doesn't hit this is that they are up so big after the first half that they take the foot off the gas and run the ball down their throats in the fourth quarter.
Chargers Alternate Line -13.5 OVER Giants +145 (1 Unit)
I think this game will be a blow out. I just don't know how this Giants team with Mike Glennon at the helm for the second straight game loses this game by less than two touchdowns. They scored just nine points at home to the Dolphins last weekend.
LIONS @ BRONCOS
Jared Goff UNDER 209.5 Passing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Last week was a great story book ending to the Lions winless streak but they go back to reality on the road in Denver. The Broncos pass defense is legit allowing just 220 through the air per game which is Top 10 in the league. Goff has been under this number in four of his last seven starts including the two weeks prior to last week's win.
BILLS @ BUCCANEERS
Rob Gronkowski OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Rob Gronkowski ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN +150 (1 Unit)
He only had three catches last week but two of them went for touchdowns and covered his receiving prop for us. Gronk has had 8-9-8 targets over the last three games since returning from injury.
Leonard Fournette OVER 5.5 Receptions +120 (1 Unit)
Fournette has seen targets of 9-6-8-8 over his last four and catches of 8-6-7-7. That will get it done to clear this prop which is sitting with a very nice +120. Leonard has become the back that we thought Giovani Bernard would be in this offense. Jump all over this one.
Buccaneers OVER 28.5 Team Total Points -115 (1 Unit)
The Bills defense had been lights out to start the season leading the league in like all statistical categories but have taken a nosedive as their competition has gotten tougher. The Buccaneers score nearly 40 points a game at home. I think this game will be a shootout and first to 35 wins.
49ERS @ BENGALS
Ja'Marr Chase UNDER 23.5 Longest Reception -115 (1 Unit)
Defenses are just not allowing Ja'Marr Chase to beat them deep anymore. He got away with it for the first seven weeks of the season having a catch of 34 yards or longer. Since then, he's had just one catch over 20 yards. Unless there is a blown coverage, he ain't going to hit this prop.
Tee Higgins OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
I talked to you before Week 13 about how as Ja'Marr Chase's numbers have declined, Tee Higgins numbers have increased. That held true once again and I'm going to keep riding Higgins line as long as he keeps covering with ease. He's been over this number in four of his last five games.
BEARS @ PACKERS
Justin Fields OVER 34.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
We've got Justin Fields back from his injury and I fully expect him to pick up where he left off when it comes to running with the ball. If Fields didn't leave his last game early with the injury, he would have been over this number in five straight games. The Packers are one of the most generous teams to the running quarterback in the league. Taylor Heinicke nearly cracked 100 yards on the ground against them.
Packers -6 against Bears 1st Half Spread -115 (1 Unit)
As Rodgers said to the camera in their last game against Chicago, "I owe you". He does own the Bears and has for his entire career. He had three total touchdowns against them in their first matchup. I just have a feeling that this game is going to get out of hand early.