Best Prop Bets Sunday week 11 2021
It was a 3-1 Thursday Night which brings my total to 128-159. Two winning nights in a row, let's keep this momentum going into the Week 11 Sunday slate.
If you've got questions heading into tonight's game hit me up @Drew_Phelps83 on twitter.
RAVENS @ BEARS
Justin Fields OVER 34.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Justin Fields OVER 7.5 Rush Attempts +105 (1 Unit)
The legs of Justin Fields have been on full display over the last four weeks. The Bears have made an effort to get him involved in the running game. He is averaging eight carries per game over the last four and has been over this total in all of those games.
PACKERS @ VIKINGS
A.J. Dillon OVER 81.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
There is no Aaron Jones for the Packers this weekend and that means A.J. Dillon takes over as the lead back. The Vikings allow 130 yards per game on the ground, that's fifth worst in the league. He is averaging 4.3 yards per carry on the season.
COLTS @ BILLS
Zack Moss OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards -110 (1 Unit)
He had zero catches for zero yards in Week 10 against the Jets but I'm writing that off as a one off. The Bills were in complete control of that game and he wasn't needed to be involved in the passing game. The Colts will pose a bigger threat to Buffalo and he will be put into action. Prior to the Jets game, he had gone over this yardage total in three straight.
Josh Allen OVER 37.5 Pass Attempts -110 (1 Unit)
This goes back to what I was just saying with Zack Moss, he didn't need to throw the ball all over the yard because they had the game in hand. Matt Breida ran in two touchdowns because they were just pounding it down their throats. The three previous games were all competitive and Josh Allen attempted 42 or more passes in each of them.
LIONS @ BROWNS
D'Andre Swift OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards -110 (1 Unit)
Tim Boyle will start for the Detroit Lions and I don't expect him to be taking too many deep shots in this ball game. He'll be dumping it off to the best pass catcher on the team, Swift all day long.
FOOTBALL TEAM @ PANTHERS
Christian McCaffrey OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Christian McCaffrey OVER 5.5 Receptions +115 (1 Unit)
The man is back and we need to take advantage. Just getting his feet wet two weeks ago Christian caught five balls for 54 yards. Then he exploded last week for 66 yards on 10 catches. I'm not expecting 10 catches again but he could easily catch 6-7 for 50 plus yards. The Panthers are facing the third worst passing defense in the league.
DeAndre Carter OVER 27.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
DeAndre Carter ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN +450 (1 Unit)
DeAndre Carter has been a bright spot for the football team this season. He is playing the role that they had hoped for Dyami Brown. Taylor Heinicke has developed a connection with him which has resulted in touchdowns in back to back games. Carter has six targets for three catches and over 50 yards in each of the last two games.
TEXANS @ TITANS
Tyrod Taylor OVER 22.5 Rushing Yards -110 (1 Unit)
Taylor went over this in Week 1 without a problem. He was on his way in Week 2 before getting hurt. He cleared this number in Week 3 against the Dolphins. He will have to use his legs to keep this offense moving against this Titans defense.
Brandin Cooks OVER 5.5 Receptions +100 (1 Unit)
In Tyrod Taylor's first game back as starting quarterback he targeted Cooks 14 times. Yes, you read that correctly, 14 times. Now, I do wish he would have caught more of those 14 than just six but that would get the job done in Week 11.
49ERS @ JAGUARS
Dan Arnold OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Dan Arnold OVER 4.5 Receptions +120 (1 Unit)
Arnold has been a gold mine over the last few weeks when it comes to prop betting. Trevor Lawrence loves himself some Dan Arnold, he has targeted him 25 times over the last three weeks. He has been over both of these numbers in each of the last three games. I don't see any real reason to shy away this weekend.
DOLPHINS @ JETS
Michael Carter OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
While Ty Johnson has been a thorn in Carter's volume, it hasn't stopped him from clearing this total in four straight games. He's averaged five catches over those four games which should easily get him over that 25 yard mark once again.
SAINTS @ EAGLES
Adam Trautman OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
I don't think people have realized how consistent Trautman has been over the last five games. He has been over this yardage total in four of those five games. Adam has averaged over four targets per game and has caught at least two passes over that five game stretch.
Jalen Hurts UNDER 47.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Yes, I know he's been over this total in four straight games but he hasn't faced a rush defense like this one. No quarterback has rushed for more than 30 yards against the Saints. New Orleans has allowed only 57 yards per game on the ground over the last three.
BENGALS @ RAIDERS
Joe Mixon OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
Joe Mixon OVER 2.5 Receptions -115 (1 Unit)
I spoke about this one a couple weeks ago but he's become a stable part of the Bengals passing attack. If you take out the Ravens game where Ja'Marr Chase just went nuts, he has been way clear of both of these numbers in three straight games. 5 for 59, 4 for 58, and 5 for 46 are about as consistent as you can get.
COWBOYS @ CHIEFS
Dalton Schultz UNDER 45.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
There was a worry that when Michael Gallup returned to the lineup, Schultz's targets and catches would go down and they have. In two of the last three games, he's had just five total catches for a combined 25 yards. I hope if you had him in your fantasy leagues you have a decent back up option.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 71.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
I'm just going to throw out that Denver game but no one knows what the hell happened in that one. We are just blame it on Dak Prescott rust but whatever. If you ignore that game, Lamb is averaging seven catches for 118 yards over the last three games. The Chiefs defense does not have the capability to shut down Lamb the way the Broncos did. Lamb is imposing his will against opposing secondaries.
CARDINALS @ SEAHAWKS
Seahawks UNDER 23.5 Team Total Points -115 (1 Unit)
I really don't love anything in this game because there is basically nothing posted for the Cardinals due to the quarterback question marks. Seattle was shut out last week and while I don't expect that to happen again, I don't see them unloading on this Cardinals defense. Russell does not seem fully healthy and playing timid.
STEELERS @ CHARGERS
Chase Claypool UNDER 41.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit)
I want the cowards at the books to give us a Najee Harris rushing prop because he is going to eat against this Chargers rush defense. Since we don't have that, I believe in the Chargers pass defense which is Top 5 in the league allowing just 206 yards per game through the air. Claypool hasn't been able to get it going all season and that's mostly because Big Ben's arm is shot.