ESPN Draft Analysis 1 2017 Pt one

By Michael Valverde
Michael Valverde

Click to: ESPN Draft Analysis part 2

Click to: Check out the draft video

Doing a free mock draft usually leads to the thought so famously given by Forrest Gump, “Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are going to get?” I joined one of the better master minds in the fantasy football world, Emil Kadlec for a 10 player ESPN draft on Friday, August 11.

It ended up being a good day to have the draft. Just the day before I ran into computer problems and we had to put it on hold. Fate pointed us in the right direction as it became a windfall of trades and one suspension of Ezekiel Elliot in the NFL world. The Bills, Rams, and Eagles also joined forces in a three-team trade. Therefore, I became grateful to those computer problems that plagued me the day before.

I want to showcase my thoughts in who I selected; those picks that I found valuable and those that I did not, and give you an insight on the happenings of the draft. Hopefully, this will benefit you in seeing where players may fall in a draft and what advantages you can take when selecting a player.

One of the topics discussed, between Emil and I was where would Ezekiel Elliot have gone if he weren’t facing a six-game suspension. How much would that have changed the first round and the draft including which notable player(s) would have fell out of the first round? I was the ninth pick of the draft and everything seem to go as accordingly with the first six picks. It also finished that way as well.

What stands out right away is the first round, seventh pick of T.Y. Hilton. It could very well be the worst pick of the draft. I debated between LeSean McCoy and Green, but decided that Green is still one of the best receivers and hoping I could grab McCoy at the turn.

1. Team 1: Le'Veon Bell
2. Team 3: David Johnson
3. Cowboys fifth ring: Antonio Brown
4. Kaep is Crap: Julio Jones
5. Team 2: Odell Beckham
6. Team Kadlec: Mike Evans
7. Nibiru Grays: T.Y. Hilton
8. Team Brown: Jordy Nelson
9. Team Valverde: A.J. Green
10. Team TB579er 15: Aaron Rodgers

In the second round, more picks went according to their ADP value. I am unsure why Team TB579er 15 would pick back-to-back quarterbacks, maybe he thought this was a two-quarterback league? I am not a big fan of LeSean McCoy, but I am a fan of his asking price in the second round, so I went with it. Emil wanted Thomas, but go sniped by team 6, which wouldn’t be his first snipe of the day.
1. Team TB579er 15: Tom Brady
2. Team Valverde: LeSean McCoy
3. Team Brown: Devonta Freeman
4. Nibiru Grays: Michael Thomas
5. Team Kadlec: Ezekiel Elliott
6. Team 2: Leonard Fournette
7. Kaep is Crap: Melvin Gordon
8. Cowboys 6th ring: Jordan Howard
9. Team 3: Marshawn Lynch
10. Team 1: Dez Bryant

One thing for sure Team TB579er 15 has a love for quarterbacks as his team went three rounds in a row with that position. I went with my second wide receiver in Doug Baldwin. In his last two seasons, he had 172 receptions and 21 touchdowns. I’ll take it. Danny Woodhead was the biggest reach in this round as ESPN has his ADP going four rounds later. Jarvis Landry is a reach as well. ESPN has him going in the fifth round.
1. Team 1: Demarco Murray
2. Team 3: Danny Woodhead
3. Cowboys 6th ring: Rob Gronkowski
4. Kaep is Crap: Jay Ajayi
5. Team 2: Jarvis Landry
6. Team Kadlec: Alshon Jeffery
7. Nibiru Grays: Lamar Miller
8. Team Brown: Amari Cooper
9. Team Valverde: Doug Baldwin
10. Team TB579er 15: Drew Brees

I’m not a big fan of Todd Gurley, but when it came to the fourth round, it was time to pull the trigger, so I did. I also liked the selection of Christian McCaffrey at the end of this round. He is currently going in the fourth, but his ceiling keeps climbing. The more people see him the more they are going to want a share. I think his value will be mid to early third by the time the season starts.
1. Team TB579er 15: Matt Ryan
2. Team Valverde: Todd Gurley
3. Team Brown: Isaiah Crowell
4. Nibiru Grays: Bilal Powell
5. Team Kadlec: Joe Mixon
6. Team 2: Terrelle Pryor
7. Kaep is Crap: Demaryius Thomas
8. Cowboys 6th ring: DeAndre Hopkins
9. Team 3: Christian McCaffrey
10. Team 1: Brandin Cooks

I paid too much for Carlos Hyde. Currently, he is going in the later part of the fifth round, but I don’t believe there is much upside with Hyde. His floor is a giant sink hole. But, I needed a running back, so I got one for equal money. The biggest whiff may go to Cowboys 6th ring, who selected Allen Robinson. His current ESPN ADP has him listed in the sixth round, but he does have good upside.
1. Team 1: Keenan Allen
2. Team 3: Ty Montgomery
3. Cowboys 6th ring: Allen Robinson
4. Kaep is Crap: Julian Edelman
5. Team 2: Dalvin Cook
6. Team Kadlec: Travis Kelce
**7. Nibiru Grays: Golden Tate
8. Team Brown: Sammy Watkins
9. Team Valverde: Carlos Hyde
10. Team TB579er 15: Greg Olsen

I didn’t like the Darren McFadden pick. Here is an early grab based on the news of Elliot being suspended for six games. At this point, McFadden isn’t even guaranteed the starting or splitting spot at running back. Jamison Crowder was a little early for my taste.
Crowder’s ESPN ADP is going in the seventh round. On top of that Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Emmanuel Sanders were available. Both Adams and Hill have bigger ceilings. All other picks fell within their ADP range.
1. Team TB579er 15: Michael Crabtree
2. Team Valverde: Jordan Reed
3. Team Brown: Jamison Crowder
4. Nibiru Grays: Davante Adams
5. Team Kadlec: Tyreek Hill
6. Team 2: Stefon Diggs
7. Kaep is Crap: Theo Riddick
8. Cowboys 6th ring: Emmanuel Sanders
9. Team 3: Darren McFadden
10. Team 1: Larry Fitzgerald

Going with Martavis Bryant is risky, but he has so much upside. He is currently going in the 8th round of ESPN leagues. Ameer Abdullah is a favorite of mine, getting him in the seventh is early but high upside. Willie Snead is not appropriate for his ninth round ADP value. But, I think he becomes a fifth rounder by the end of season. Either way, I should have waited at least another round.
1. Team 1: Mark Ingram
2. Team 3: Frank Gore
3. Cowboys 6th ring: Martavis Bryant
4. Kaep is Crap: Delanie Walker
5. Team 2: Eric Decker
6. Team Kadlec: Ameer Abdullah
7. Nibiru Grays: Spencer Ware
8. Team Brown: Pierre Garcon
9. Team Valverde: Willie Snead
10. Team TB579er 15: Kyle Rudolph

Paul Perkins went one round early, but the Giants want him to be the bell cow, so there is solid value there. Mike Gillislee also went early, but the Patriots offense want him to be the battering ram and he should reap quite a few touchdowns. However, he should be had in the ninth or later round. Jeremy Maclin was also an early pick and should be an active part of the offense. The best pick is Andrew Luck, if he is indeed ready for week one, this is an absolute steal.
1. Team TB579er 15: Kelvin Benjamin
2. Team Valverde: Mike Gillislee
3. Team Brown: C.J. Anderson
4. Nibiru Grays: Dak Prescott
5. Team Kadlec: Paul Perkins
6. Team 2: Adrian Peterson
7. Kaep is Crap: Cam Newton
8. Cowboys 6th ring: Jeremy Maclin
9. Team 3: Brandon Marshall
10. Team 1: Andrew Luck

I did not like the Rishard Matthews pick. He played well last season, but the Titans are still committed to the run, and his ESPN ADP goes into the 11th round. I would like to ask Team 2 about his Robert Kelley selection. He is currently going in the 12th round in ESPN leagues, and could have waited after that to grab him. Eddie Lacy is a nice pick here and he could really bloom in Seattle, but he has a risky price tag. Team 1 was able to grab Lacy nearly a round later than where his ADP shows him going. I went with Ben Roethlisberger to fulfill my quarterback position, and believe he can be a top eight quarterback if he remains healthy.
1. Team 1: Eddie Lacy
2. Team 3: Jimmy Graham
3. Cowboys 6th ring: Russell Wilson
4. Kaep is Crap: Duke Johnson
5. Team 2: Robert Kelley
6. Team Kadlec: Rishard Matthews
7. Nibiru Grays: Tyler Eifert
8. Team Brown: Tevin Coleman
9. Team Valverde: Ben Roethlisberger
10. Team TB579er 15: Legarrette Blount

The DeSean Jackson pick by Nibiru Grays was solid. I like him teamed with Jameis Winston in Tampa Bay. Look for Winston to bomb it frequently to Jackson. One of the bigger steals in the draft could be Derek Carr who went to Team Kadlec. Carr has improved every season and I don’t think that will change. He is currently going in the eighth round of ESPN drafts. I needed a running back, and James White is a good flex option for the Patriots, but it was too early at this point.
1. Team TB579er 15: Donte Moncrief
2. Team Valverde: James White
3. Team Brown: Kirk Cousins
4. Nibiru Grays: DeSean Jackson
5. Team Kadlec: Derek Carr
6. Team 2: Doug Martin
7. Kaep is Crap: Tyrell Williams
8. Cowboys 6th ring: Cameron Meredith
9. Team 3: Jacquizz Rodgers
10. Team 1: Mike Wallace
Adam Thielen came on strong late last season. He could continue to surprise or just slip into oblivion. Kareem Hunt fits the Kansas City Chiefs system like a glove, however, he is just a rookie. How much of a role he will play is yet unknown. Hunter Henry had an up and down season and I think his numbers will lack as long as Antonio Gates is playing. I went with John Brown for his upside. When healthy, he can deliver wide receiver two numbers.