Best Prop Bets Thanksgiving week 12 2021

I went 1-3 on Monday Night Football between the Giants and Buccaneers. Definitely not what I wanted but brings my grand total for the season to 135-179. It's time to look at the Thanksgiving Day slate of games.

If you've got questions heading into tonight's game hit me up @Drew_Phelps83 on twitter.
 

BEARS @ LIONS

Bears UNDER 21.5 Team Total Points -120 (1 Unit)

The Bears are a complete disaster as an organization. There are reports that their coach could get fired after this game and I think there's a real shot the Lions get their first win on Turkey Day. Chicago is averaging just 16 points per game on the season and without Justin Fields and Allen Robinson I don't see that improving.

David Montgomery UNDER 2.5 Receptions -115 (1 Unit)

I really don't know why but the Bears refuse to get David Montgomery involved in the passing game. In six games played this season, he has only caught three or more passes one time. I don't know why that fact would change just because it's Turkey Day but I'm going to bet against it.

D'Andre Swift OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1 Unit)
D'Andre Swift OVER 15.5 Longest Rush -110 (1 Unit)

Swift has basically been the entire offense for the Lions over the last two games against good rushing defenses in the Steelers and Browns. 130 plus yards on the ground over the last two games. The Bears allow 124 yards on the ground per game on the season. Swift has also hit the longest rush in each of the last two games as well.

RAIDERS @ COWBOYS

Tony Pollard OVER 64.5 Total Yards -120 (1 Unit)
Tony Pollard OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards -110 (1 Unit)

It is no secret that Ezekiel Elliott is banged up heading into this Turkey Day matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders. Pollard has cleared both of these totals in each of the last two games. The Raiders allow 133.5 rushing yards per game which is fourth most in the league. Darrel Williams cleared 100 receiving yards against this defense two weeks ago.

Derek Carr UNDER 260.5 Passing Yards -115 (1 Unit)

This is one you wanted to get in on earlier because the number has dropped nearly 10 full yards since it opened. The Cowboys for the season allow over 250 yards through the air per game but over their last three only 190 which is 5th best in the league. Carr only got to 261 against a pretty average Chiefs defense two weeks ago and just 215 against the Bengals last week.

Josh Jacobs OVER 3.5 Receptions +125 (1 Unit)

The rushing yards have not been there this season but he's been a pretty consistent force in the passing game. He has caught four balls or more in five of his eight games played this season including the last three. You'd like to see more yardage with 4-5 catches but I think he gets there in a game where I see them trailing in the fourth quarter.

BILLS @ SAINTS

Josh Allen OVER 33.5 Rushing Yards -120 (1 Unit)

The Saints defense looked like the best in the league against the run before last week against the Eagles. Jalen Hurts racked up nearly 70 yards on the ground at the quarterback spot. The Saints allow just 89 yards on the ground for the season but over the last three that number has jumped to 114.

Dawson Knox OVER 3.5 Reception +105 (1 Unit)

It took one game for Knox to get back into the favor of Josh Allen. In his return from injury two weeks ago, he had just one catch for 17 yards. In the Bills loss to the Colts last week, Knox had 10 targets which resulted in 6 catches. The fact that the Bills trailed most of that game probably helped increase this number but I think the catches will be there on Thanksgiving.

Marquez Callaway UNDER 37.5 Receiving Yards -110 (1 Unit)

There were really high hopes for him heading into the season after the pre-season he put together with Jameis Winston. Winston goes down and so have his targets and receptions but to be honest they were already trending that direction. He's been under this number in five straight games and the Bills boast the 4th best pass defense in the league at just 181 yards allowed per game.