DFS Three And Out 2019 week 12
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Sure, we're all into guys like Lamar Jackson, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson, all of whom will certainly appear in some of my lineups. But if I'm looking to build around higher-priced players at other positions by leveraging some of those guys' ancillary pieces (I'm looking at you, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, DK Metcalf and Jacob Hollister), I might want some more reasonably-priced signal callers to help me pay up at those other spots. You know, guys like...
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
As NFL.com's Graham Barfield noted this week, Mayfield has unquestionably been the biggest bust at quarterback in fantasy this season but he's quietly scored 17 or more fantasy points in four of his last five contests and this matchup clearly makes him this week's top streaming candidate in season-long. It also makes him of great interest to DFS players -- including me, although I'm certainly not alone in that. ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld points out that Mayfield has thrown either multiple touchdowns or 300 passing yards in all four Browns wins this season. This week, they're a 10.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have allowed a TD pass on a league-high 7.3 percent of pass attempts this season and allowed 20 or more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 7-of-10 games this season. Barfield added a secondary that's allowing the third-most yards per completion has no chance at slowing down both Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. I do not feel putting my money ($7,500 on FanDuel; $5,900 on DraftKings) on Mayfield is in the least bit dangerous this week.
Sam Darnold, QB, New York Jets
Thanks to a bout of mononucleosis, Darnold's coming out party was delayed. The Jets beat the Cowboys, but the next three weeks were filled with turnovers, sacks and poor play that had some discussing Darnold's regression from his rookie season. The pendulum swung back the last two weeks, however. And Darnold's bounceback began with a trip to the coach's office last month. The second-year quarterback had just thrown three interceptions at Jacksonville, six days after he was embarrassed on national TV for saying he was "seeing ghosts" against New England during a four-INT performance. So, the 22-year-old Darnold sought out head coach Adam Gase and told him what he liked in the offense and what he thought worked - and what didn't. Apparently Gase listened. And made the appropriate adjustments. In the three games since, the Jets are averaging nearly 29 points and 338 yards while going 2-1 - including consecutive wins over the Giants and Redskins. Darnold has completed 65.7 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and two interceptions during that stretch. This week, as ESPN.com's Jim McCormick notes, Darnold faces an Oakland defense that's allowed the fifth-most yards per completion and the second-highest touchdown rate to quarterbacks this season. Only the Falcons and Dolphins have pressured opposing quarterbacks less frequently than the Raiders, as Oakland has created pressure on just 24 percent of opponent dropbacks. That matters. Darnold boasts a 102.1 passer rating and a 5.6 percent touchdown rate when working from an unpressured pocket this season compared to a 34.8 rating and a 2.7 percent touchdown rate. ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld notes that Oakland is the second-worst red-zone defense (65.6) while the Jets are the pass-heaviest red-zone offense in the NFL at 65.3 percent, just ahead of the Packers. This makes the price ($7,400 on FanDuel; $5,800 on DraftKings) seem that much more reasonable.
Jeff Driskel, QB, Detroit Lions
With Detroit's starting quarterback Matthew Stafford missing two consecutive games due to a back injury, Jeff Driskel has filled in under center. Against Dallas last week, Driskel accounted for two touchdowns while throwing for 209 yards in the loss. He delivered 29 points for fantasy owners. In fact, having been thrown into a starting role after not playing a snap for all of 2019, Driskel has performed nicely in the two starts, accumulating 478 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Meanwhile, FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere points out a starting stat: Every starting quarterback has averaged at least 7.2 yards per attempt when playing the Redskins. To put that in perspective, only two QBs this season (Philip Rivers and Jameis Winston) are averaging more than 7 yards per attempt this year. Tagliere went on to note the ease with which opponents are able to run on the Redskins has meant they've seen just 31.4 pass attempts per game, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in football. Still, the Redskins allow a league-high 71.7 percent completion-rate and a 6.05 percent touchdown-rate, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. Beyond that, Driskel has some pretty amazing downfield weapons in the form of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. T.J. Hockenson and Danny Amendola are capable as well. In addition, the athletic Driskel can be a dangerous runner as he's demonstrated while running for 88 yards and a TD on 13 carries. Also, he is very cheap ($7,300 on FanDuel; $5,500 on DraftKings), something you know I always appreciate.
Kyle Allen, QB, Carolina Panthers
Allen will be back in the stadium where he made his first NFL start when the Panthers face the Saints in New Orleans on Sunday and the Panthers would welcome the kind of performance he turned in during that first visit. Allen was 16-of-27 for 228 yards and two touchdowns as the Panthers beat the Saints and kicked off a run of five wins in his first five starts as an NFL quarterback. Things have gone the other way for Allen recently. While he's attempted a whopping 93 passes over the past two weeks and has a pair of 300-yard games to show for it, ESPN's Mike Clay notes that Allen also has only one touchdown and five interceptions. Clay added that Allen has now failed to clear two touchdowns in each of his past seven games, falling short of two in five of those outings. Clay went on to note that Allen has attempted a significant number of low-percentage throws (his 60 percent expected completion rate is second lowest among 34 qualified quarterbacks), which has led to a weak 6.8 yards per attempt (seventh worst). Allen has managed one weekly fantasy finish better than 14th and it came in his season debut in Week 3. So yeah, the price ($6,600 on FanDuel; $5,200 on DraftKings) reflects a lot of this -- and perhaps the matchup. As Tagliere notes, no quarterback has totaled more than 18 fantasy points against the Saints in any of their last seven games, which included matchups with Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston (twice), Kyler Murray, and Matt Ryan.