DFS Three And Out 2022 week 14

It’s Week 14 and there are some plays I find irresistible. In fact, there are three of those. Okay, I might have suggested a few more that I like as well, but I’m good with those top three, all of whom feature great prices, matchups and likely outcomes. Also, one who doesn’t tick all of those boxes. That’s how the DFS Tournament Three and Out works. Let’s do this!
 

I'm In

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions ($5,600 on DraftKings; $6,800 on FanDuel)

Don't look now, but Detroit's offense is averaging the sixth-most points per game at 25.50 after a 40-14 victory over the Jaguars on Sunday and have scored at least 30 points in six games this year -- which is tied for the second most in franchise history for any season. Against Jacksonville, Goff went 31-for-41 with 340 passing yards and two touchdowns. It was his first game of the season with 300 or more yards along with multiple passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. This week, as ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft notes, Goff matches up similarly well in the Week 14 game with the highest over/under (53.5), a sign that Goff could also be a focal point against a Vikings defense that saw Mac Jones and Mike White total 40.74 fantasy points against them the past two weeks. FantasyPros' Derek Brown notes that, since Week 10, Minnesota's defense has ranked 26th in success rate per dropback, 32nd in passing yards per game and 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed. The Vikings are 31st in DVOA against short passing while allowing the second-most YAC in the NFL. It's fair to say Goff's downfield targets -- Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, Josh Reynolds and perhaps Jamison Williams -- are more than capable of helping the QB reach his full potential going up against Minnesota secondary that's allowed he second-most fantasy points overall to wide receivers this season. Given all this, Goff's price is more than reasonable and opens the door to a range of stacks within this game.

Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys ($6,600 on DraftKings; $7,200 on FanDuel)
Hello low-hanging fruit! Over the past five games, Pollard has averaged 19 touches and 126.2 total yards per game while scoring eight total touchdowns. The Sporting News' Matt Lutovsky put it like this: "Using him against the NFL's last-ranked run defense almost seems too easy. Yes, this is chalky, but we can't ignore the sky-high ceiling here. ..." No doubt. There's also no doubt Pollard a little volatile. As Brown noted, since Ezekiel Elliott's return in Week 11, Pollard has finished as the RB1, RB40, and RB2 in fantasy. Regardless of the finishes, Brown contends Pollard is an elite running back, ranking second in yards per touch, 15th in evaded tackles, ninth in yards created per touch and third in breakaway run rate. Houston has made some small improvements as a run defense, but they still rank 25th in rushing yards per game and 27th in explosive run rate allowed. Lutovsky added: "Savvy DFS players might opt for the cheaper and likely lesser-owned Elliott, who also has a high floor and ceiling, but Pollard remains a home-run play even at higher ownership." Elliott clearly has a nose for the end zone (as he's demonstrated with seven touchdowns over his last five games), but his receiving role is minimal (last week's three targets were the most he's seen in a game this season and his first game with at least two targets since Week 4). So feel free to pivot to Elliott ($6,100 on DraftKings; $7500 on FanDuel), but I'll roll with that big-play energy Pollard brings to the table.

Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,700 on DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel)
I'll follow the lead of ESPN.com’s' Matt Bowen, who wrote: "Take the recent run on production with Kirk, plus the pass game matchup versus the Titans defense. ..." In fact, Kirk has posted 100 or more yards receiving in two of his last three games -- with 29 total targets during that stretch. And you want to play your wide outs versus this Tennessee defense, a unit giving up an average of 42 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers (the most in the NFL). ESPN's Mike Clay reminded readers that Tennessee got roasted for 274 yards, three TDs and a season-high 65 fantasy points against Eagles' wide receivers last week. So in addition to allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, they've also given up the most TDs (17) to the position. Of course, I'm assuming Trevor Lawrence, who is expected to play despite a toe injury he suffered last week, is under center in this one. If there is no Lawrence, feel free to pivot to others in this price range with favorable matchups like DeVonta Smith ($6,300 on DraftKings; $6,800 on FanDuel) or Garrett Wilson ($5,900 on DraftKings; $6,600 on FanDuel).

I'm Out

Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills ($5,300 on DraftKings; $6,500 on FanDuel)
Given the boom-bust nature of his game, Davis would normally be a more than suitable tournament play given his pricing. That said, Davis normally doesn't face the Jets. Broadly speaking, as Clay pointed out, New York has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the position (fewest over the last eight weeks), as well as the fourth fewest to the perimeter for the season (second fewest over the last eight weeks). Cockroft adds the Jets have seen only seven different wide receivers crack double-digit fantasy points against them in their past nine games, with only heavily targeted Jakobi Meyers scoring 20-plus. So it's worth noting: Davis scored only 5 PPR fantasy points on five targets despite 38 routes run when these teams last met in Week 9. Davis has also delivered double-digit fantasy production in just two of his last six games. He might be due. But Brown contends this isn't the matchup to look for a big Davis week, as the Jets are fourth in deep ball completion rate allowed and Davis will run about 89 percent of his routes against Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, who also combined to cover Davis on 37 of those 38 routes in the first meeting.