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DFS Three And Out 2022 week 7
It's Week 6 and I'm looking to dive into the pool of high-priced wide receivers, some of whom have some really good matchups. Of course, there's also one who doesn't. That's how we make a DFS Tournament Three and Out kids.
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders ($8,700 on DraftKings; $8,600 on FanDuel)
Through his first five games as a Raider, Adams has caught 29 passes for 414 yards and five touchdowns. He is coming off his best statistical game of the season, totaling 124 yards and two touchdowns on just three receptions. This week, he goes up against Houston rookie corner Derek Stingley Jr. This is good news. As ESPN's Mike Clay noted, Stingley shadowed Courtland Sutton in Week 2 and Mike Williams in Week 4, which suggests he might do the same with Adams this week. "The 2022 third overall draft pick might have a bright future in the league," Clay wrote, "but he has struggled thus far." Indeed, Sutton (7-122-0 receiving line on 11 targets) and Williams (7-120-0 on 11 targets) both had big games against him, as did the player Stingley covered most often in both Week 1 (Michael Pittman Jr. posted a 9-121-1 on 13 targets) and Week 5 (Marvin Jones Jr. posted a 7-104-0 line on 11 targets). Through five weeks (Houston had a bye in Week 6), Stingley had allowed 70 fantasy points (fifth most) and 423 yards (most). Meanwhile, Adams is currently fantasy's WR8 and his 32.3 percent target share ranks fifth among all wideout. Better still, he's top 12 in air yard share (tenth), deep targets (11th), and red-zone targets (first). While Josh Jacobs and the rushing attack are in a good spot here as well, I'll remind you that Derek Carr has thrown multiple TD passes in four out of the Raiders' five games this season. With a career high aDOT of 8.2 yards, Carr is well-matched for a Houston defense allowing the sixth-most deep completions per game.
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49er ($7,600 on DraftKings; $7,700 on FanDuel)
Samuel is a big play machine and is the 49ers' leading receiver and second-leading rusher. But as CBSSports.com's Heath Cummings noted this week, Samuel's emergence as a playmaker in the running game has been one of the biggest developments for the 49ers offense over the past few seasons, but he's taken on a smaller role over the past few weeks. Samuel has just four carries over the past two games, and he played just one snap in the backfield in Week 5; in Week 3, by comparison, he had five carries and lined up in the backfield on eight snaps. In addition, Cummings note that his 5.96-yard average depth of target in the past three games is down significantly from last season's 8.4-yard mark. I'm hoping that slight downturn is enough to drive some people to other options, because there's still plenty to like here. He's commanded a 28.5 percent target share (10th-best) and 32.0 percent target per route rate (sixth). In addition, FantasyPros' Derek Brown believes that lower aDOT can work in his favor this week if Jimmy Garoppolo is under duress while facing the Chiefs pass rush. But there's more here. ... As KC Joyner noted in this week's Blue-Rated Wideouts column, the Chiefs defense has allowed more attempts, completions and passing touchdowns than any team in the league this year, which is part of why Samuel gets the very rare benefit of earning a "perfect 100 matchup point total" from Joyner. Also, as Brown contends, Samuel effectively functions this year as the team's receiving running back. Kansas City is first in receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs. As Joyner put it, "Add it together and it means Samuel could be in line for his best point total of the 2022 season."
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,000 on DraftKings; $7,600 on FanDuel)
As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry wrote: "If it wasn't for Chris Godwin, Tom Brady would be yelling at a lot more linemen and breaking way more Microsoft Surfaces. Since returning from a strained hamstring three weeks ago, Godwin has at least six receptions in every game as well as 10-plus targets in two of those three games. Last week, Godwin had a 32 percent target share. So at a time in which we all need a comfort blanket, Brady's is clearly Godwin. ..." So why am I talking about Godwin when Evans is my player of interest? Because I think Godwin, a cheaper play on both the major platforms, is likely to draw more interest than Evans. Also, because Evans is always appealing in tournaments. ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld characterized Evans as one of the most prolific TD scorers in fantasy football. And if we're looking to leverage a rebound game for Brady, who was angry and embarrassed in last week's loss to the Steelers, Evans, who finished as WR45 last week and might be looking to redeem himself as well, is the highest percentage play on this roster for multiple touchdowns.
Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,400 on DraftKings; $7,800 on FanDuel)
Bear with me here. ... I like Williams. I love his quarterback. And while Keenan Allen is trending towards playing, he told reporters on Wednesday that's no sure thing (his absence would likely mean more work for Williams). So all in all, Williams is a solid play. But is he worth the fourth-highest price among all wideouts on both DraftKings and FanDuel? Even if you're expecting a rebound game after he was held to just two catches for 17 yards by Broncos shutdown corner Patrick Surtain II, I'll remind you the Seahawks haven't been a walk in the park for wideouts. Per FantasyPros, Williams will match up against two outstanding corners for about 82 percent of his routes in Tariq Woolen (55.6 percent catch rate, 38.6 passer rating) and Michael Jackson (59.1 percent catch rate, 91.3 passer rating). Beyond that, as Brown pointed out, Williams' season has been feast or famine. He's had three games as the WR13 or better. In his three other games, he's finished as the WR97, WR54, and WR65.