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DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 3
DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 3
By Bob Harris
It's Week 3 people and I feel like pursuing some targets of opportunity in my tournament lineups. I should stipulate right here and now: I'm writing this on Thursday afternoon. What appear to be great opportunities in the moment, might not be so much on Sunday. So DOUBLE CHECK kids! Hit the Late-Breaking Updates section of the sit, review the FSP Staff Rankings and listen to the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Pre-Game Show (featuring yours truly) at 11 am ET on Sunday. These might be risky plays. But you know the deal. Risk can lead to reward and I'm looking to take chances in my tournament lineups. So there you have it, with the caveats out of the way, here are three players whose opportunities I find appealing and one that's somewhat less so.
Joshua Kelley, RB, Los Angeles Charger ($5,400 on DraftKings; $6,100 on FanDuel)
Austin Ekeler offered an encouraging update on Tuesday, suggesting he's in a “day-to-day, week to week type of situation,” and that he hopes to be back “sooner than later. ...” I believe it will be later than this Sunday when the Chargers take on the Vikings in Minnesota. Assuming that's the case -- and by all means take the appropriate precautions (check the Late-Breaking Updates section of the site right up through Sunday's inactive announcement), Kelley is in a much better spot matchup-wise this week than he was going up against the Titans last week. We knew Kelley would get the volume with Ekeler out in Nashville last Sunday, but we also knew the Titans have one of the stingiest run defenses in the NFL dating back through last season. They're also super-generous when it comes to the pass. The Vikings, on the other hand, are generous on both fronts. Believing Kelley will get 15 or more carries (he got 13 on a pass-heavy day last week) seems reasonable. Expecting him to gain more than the 3.0 yards per carry he finished with against a Tennessee defense that's allowed a meager 2.7 per carry this season seems reasonable. After all, the Vikings defense just gave up 175 rushing yards to Eagles running back D'Andre Swift. The Vikings have also yielded three rushing touchdowns this season and I'm hoping the field is down on Kelley after he disappointed last Sunday.
Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints ($4,300 on DraftKings; $4,600 on FanDuel)
Jamaal Williams suffered a hamstring on Monday night, which paved the way for Tony Jones Jr. -- the team's fourth-string back -- to post what's been characterized as a Jerome Bettis-esque line, carrying the ball 12 times for 34 yards and a pair of scores. This week, Miller is expected to make his debut this week after missing the first two games with a hamstring injury and the Saints could really use a big game from the third-round pick. The Saints just waived backup RB Kirk Merritt, leaving Miller and Jones as the primary options — unless, as Zach Kruse wrote for USA Today, Taysom Hill is going to have a heavy workload as a runner, which we can’t rule out. That said, head coach Dennis Allen said Miller be "full go" at Green Bay. Miller would be making his NFL debut at Lambeau Field after gaining 49 yards on 22 carries in the preseason. He also caught seven passes for 47 yards. The belief among those who cover the team closely says the rookie will likely have a big role in his first game. Green Bay has allowed 333 rushing yards -- and 4.5 yards per carry -- in two games. In addition, as FantasyPros' Derek Brown points out, Green Bay has the third-lowest stuff rate while allowing the third-most missed tackles and the third-highest rate of 10-plus yard runs, which seems to favor Miller's big-play reputation. Again -- and I cannot stress this enough -- check the latest information before kickoff and roster lock before hitting submit on all these players to ensure the opportunity I'm anticipating on Thursday still exists on Sunday.
Josh Reynolds, WR, Detroit Lions ($4200 on DraftKings; $7,000 on FanDuel)
Reynolds is the WR9 in Fantasy after snagging nine of his 13 targets for 146 yards and two touchdowns over the first two weeks of the season. Reynolds finished Week 1 with seven more routes run than teammate Marvin Jones to go along with a solid 21.9 percent target share. In Week 2 against Seattle, Reynolds ran eight more routes than Jones while seeing six targets to Jones' zero. As NBC Sports' Denny Carter notes, only five wideouts have a higher fantasy points over expected than Reynolds this season. He has two touchdowns on his nine early-season receptions while running a route on 70 percent of Detroit’s drop backs. Her also leads the Lions in air yards and should function as the team’s lone downfield threat until Jameson Williams returns from his suspension. Adding to the intrigue -- and making him a target of even greater opportunity this week -- is the fact that Amon-Ra St. Brown is nicked up. St. Brown is likely to play, but may not be at full speed. That said, the bigger opportunity comes from the fact the Lions are playing at home. As 4for4.com's John Paulsen noted this week, in 10 home games since last season, Jared Goff has averaged 280 yards and 2.6 passing touchdowns per game. A Week 3 matchup with a Falcons defense that has allowed only 267 yards through the air this year presents a tough test, but I'm willing to take my chances again this week (as I did with the Reynolds-Goff pairing in multiple lineups last Sunday) -- especially on DraftKings, where the pricing doesn't seem to have caught up with the performance to date.
Andy Dalton, QB, Carolina Panthers ($4,900 on DraftKings; $6,200 on FanDuel)
Saved by the bell! I was going to go with Gardner Minshew in this spot as it appears Anthony Richardson will miss Sunday's game against the Ravens with a concussion. But Minshew ($5100 on DraftKings; $7,100 on FanDuel) is a way better option than Dalton. Okay, I realize Dalton has had success at Seattle before. During his rookie season with the Bengals, he completed 18 of 29 pass attempts for 168 yards and two touchdowns in a 34-12 victory. He also was 35-for-51 for 418 yards and two touchdowns during a 21-20 loss to the Seahawks in 2019. "He's still got it," Panthers center Bradley Bozeman said. "He has been rocking and rolling this whole time and that is why he is here. He's a great leader and no matter who is in at quarterback, whether it is him or Bryce, they are going to be ready. ..." He might well be ready, but the Panthers offense, which is tied for last in the NFL in scoring with 13.5 points per game, is not. With all due respect to Dalton and weapons like Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Jonathan Mingo and Hayden Hurst, I just don't see much opportunity here even if the Seahawks have had their share of issues against the "Red Rifle" over the years. Minshew, meanwhile, completed 19-of-23 passes for 171 yards with a touchdown in about three quarters of action against the Texans last week. In four starts from 2021-22 for current Colts head coach Shane Steichen in Philadelphia (Steichen was Eagles offensive coordinator), Minshew threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns, 186 yards and two touchdowns, 355 yards and two touchdowns and 274 yards with one touchdown. I'm not sure he's a huge opportunity either, but I feel better about Minshew than Dalton (even if both are so cheap I might end up tossing darts at them anyhow).