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DFS Tournament Three and Out Week 7
DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 7
It's Week 7 and SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to do a short video with my Week 6 takeaways. I went with the same takeaway I have every week: Volume matters. ... In a league where volatility and the unexpected are the desired outcomes, players like Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp and Travis Kelce stand out because their consistent, weekly volume puts them in position to deliver consistent high-end production. You will find them in my lineups (when applicable) on the regular. But there are other players enjoying significant volume at better prices. Sometimes with good matchups. Today the focus is on volume with three players I'm expecting to cash in on their volume and one I might be a little concerned about. It's the DFS Tournament Three and Out people! Let's go!
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,700 on DraftKings; $7,400 on FanDuel)
Pacheco is producing at an RB1 level so far this season. His workload reflects that. As FantasyPros' Derek Brown notes, over the last three games Pacheco has played 59-63 percent of the team's offensive snaps while averaging 20.6 touches per game and 106.6 total yards from scrimmage. Brown also points out the second-year back's pass game role has been increased this season as he already has three games with at least three receptions and 30 receiving yards. NBC Sports' Mark Garcia points out the Chargers rank 32nd in the league in yards allowed before contact at "a startling" 1.98 while the Chiefs' offensive line has blocked to an above average 1.40 yards before contact this season (12th). SI.com's Michael Fabiano contends Pacheco "should thrive" against the Chargers, who have given up 13-plus PPR points to five running backs including four with more than 17. Garcia further contends that Pacheco's 4.37 speed can result in the opportunity for splash run plays if he gets into the second level, something he could have a chance to do at an increased rate in this matchup based on that yards before contact number (among 53 qualified backs, Pacheco ranks 16th in explosive run rate and 12th in yards after contact per attempt). High speed. High volume. Reasonable price. Count me in.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens ($5500 on DraftKings; $6,900 on FanDuel)
Kelce remains the dominant player at this position, but Andrews isn't far behind. In fact, he currently stands as the TE3 behind Kelce and Lions rookie Sam LaPorta. But as FantasyPros' notes, Andrews ranks second in target share (21.9 percent), sixth in yards per route run (1.86), fifth in air-yard share and sixth in first-read share among 46 qualifying tight ends. Andrew is also top-ten in deep targets (seventh) and red zone targets (tenth) among tight ends. But Florio believes the outlook is even better when you take into account that Andrews holds a solid 24 percent targets per route run rate against zone coverage this year. The Lions' zone-heavy scheme naturally filters pass volume to the middle of the field, behind the linebackers and in front of the deep safeties -- an area of the field where Andrews excels. All of this sets Andrews up for the potential to put up a "had to have it" score. Detroit has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Better still, Andrews is only the fourth-highest priced TE on DraftKings. And while he's the second-highest on FanDuel, Andrews is $1,600 less than Kelce.
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($5,300 on DraftKings; $6,700 on FanDuel)
NFL.com's Michael F. Florio acknowledged that Brown did not have a huge fantasy day last week, catching just four passes for 34 yards. But it wasn't due to lack of opportunity. After drawing 11 targets in Los Angeles, Hollywood has now seen double-digit targets in a league-high four games. Along the way, he's compiled a 27.0 percent target share and a 43.3 percent air-yard share. Per FantasyPros, Brown ranks fifth among wide receivers in deep targets and he's also 12th in red-zone targets. All of which explains why prior to last week, Brown had topped 16 fantasy points in four straight games, with a touchdown in three of them. This week, he gets the Seahawks, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to receivers. They've given up the eighth-most yards and third-most touchdowns to the position. I'm looking at Brown as a very-affordable rebound candidate in this one.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions ($6,400 on DraftKings; $7,600 on FanDuel)
Hey, it's been a great season for Goff, who has thrown for 1,618 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions so far. His completion rate of 69.5 percent and his passer rating of 105.1 are both career highs. Over his last 17 games -- the equivalent of a full NFL regular season, Goff has completed 391-of-578 (67.6 percent) for 4,473 passing yards with 29 passing TDs and just four interceptions. He's turning high volume into high-end production. Meanwhile, as Fabiano noted, Goff put up his best stat line on the road in well over a year last week, scoring 22 points in a win over the Buccaneers. But that hasn't been the norm. Florio pointed out that since last season, Goff has averaged 22 fantasy points per game at home and just 13 on the road. He's averaged nearly two more touchdowns per game at home than on the road in that span. But this week's trip to Baltimore is as worrisome due to the matchup as it is due to the home/road splits. The Ravens have given up the fifth-fewest passing yards this season (and the third-fewest of teams that have played six games). Their defense hasn't allowed a quarterback to score more than 15.4 points against them this season. Goff is the 10th highest-priced QB on DraftKings this week and the seventh-highest on FanDuel.