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DFS Tournament Three and Out Week 8
DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 8
By Bob Harris
It's Week 8 and I'm ready to expand on last week’s theme. In case you missed it, that theme was volume. This week, I'm still leaning into the volume; I'm obviously still looking for great matchups; but I'm putting a little more focus on potential upside to go with super-high floors. That being the case, here are three I really, really like. And another that I like a lot less. It's the DFS Tournament Three and Out! Let's dive in!
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints ($7,300 on DraftKings; $8,300 on FanDuel)
As Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason pointed out on X earlier this week, Kamara's workload (29 touches, including 12 catches last Sunday) continues to be massive. He has 55 touches in the last two games. Over the course of his four games this season, Kamara has averaged 26.1 touches and 109.6 total yards. In addition, Kamara has averaged 9.8 targets per contest over his four games this year with a pair of 14-targets outings during that span. ... Meanwhile, as The Sporting News' Nick Brinkerhoff noted, the Colts saw Jerome Ford break off a 69-yard touchdown on the very first series, but generally speaking, Indy has been a tough team to run on. Per FantasyPros' Derek Brown, the Colts have the 12th-highest stuff rate and fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. That might be a concern for other backs, but not so much with Kamara. As Brown put it, look for the Saints to "run through the air" against Indy's zone defense. Against zone coverage, Kamara's target share has been a remarkable 28 percent. As Brown put it, “That’s alpha wide receiver-type usage at the running back position." Getting those opportunities in open space are the key to massive upside to go with his already-high floor.
Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants ($5,200 on DraftKings; $6,400 on FanDuel)
As Associated Press sports writer Tom Canavan suggested this week, it was only a matter of time given the talent and target share, but Waller finally had a breakout game as New York's No. 1 receiver with seven catches on eight targets for 98 yards and his first touchdown as a Giant. But was it really a breakout? Zachariason noted this week that Waller has now given us two top-seven PPR performances at tight end over his last three games. His target shares over his last three: 36.7 percent, 22.6 percent, and 29.6 percent. The only tight ends with more yards are Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson. ... So it seems like he's been rounding in into expected form rather than breaking out. Whatever the case, Waller goes up against the Jets this week. And while many might avoid him due to uncertainty at QB -- Daniel Jones's status remains uncertain and Tyrod Taylor seems likely to start again -- and the matchup, I’m not avoiding him. Regarding the QB, Waller has fared well at times with Jones (see the second half of the Week 2 game in Arizona and in Week 5) and his last two games with Taylor have obviously been fantastic. And the matchup? As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio points out, New York has allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends as well as the most touchdowns to the position, too.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans ($5,500 on DraftKings; $7,200 on FanDuel)
Out of sight and out of mind? Collins comes off the Texans Week 7 by flying a little under the radar. But, as Florio advised his readers, we should not forget how good he's has been. He has topped 80 yards and 12 fantasy points in four of six games -- and has exploded with 27- and 35-point efforts, as well. Brown, noting that Collins is the WR13 in fantasy points per game, added the third-year wideout also has a 19.6 percent target share, a 29.9 percent air-yard share and a team-leading 26.1 percent first-read share. All of which prompted Florio to contend this week could be an upside game for Collins against the Panthers, who run zone defense the third-most in the NFL at 83 percent. Florio further noted Collins has picked up 70 percent of his yards against zone defenses. One of his two blowup games came against the Colts, one of only two teams running zone more often than the Panthers (the Texans are the other). Adding to the intrigue, Brown points out that against deep passing, they have been one of the worst defenses in the league, giving up the sixth-highest deep passer rating and the seventh-highest deep-adjusted completion rate. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in four of his last five games. Florio's bottom line for Collins fits this week's theme: "Excellent floor, excellent ceiling."
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams ($6,600 on DraftKings; $6,500 on FanDuel)
I do love volume. And Stafford ranks third in the NFL in pass attempts and fourth is passing yards this season. So the floor is there. But what about the ceiling? Well. ... There's a reason Stafford is QB17 in all of fantasy so far this year. As Brown explained, the culprit is his 17th ranking in passing touchdowns. He has only one game this season with multiple passing scores. Despite the passing touchdown struggle, he continues to play at a high level. He is seventh in passing grade, third in big-time throw rate, and sixth in yards per attempt. Some of that comes from a supporting cast that includes Cooper Kupp and rookie phenom Puka Nacua. But even with the high-end weaponry, Stafford is a solid-but-unspectacular play. Adding to the "meh" vibe I already have, Stafford faces a Dallas pass defense that hasn't been the same without Trevon Diggs but one that has still allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. So the floor is there. I just don't see a high ceiling.