DFS Tournament Three and Out Week 14

DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 14

By Bob Harris

It’s Week 14 and it strikes me there are a number of ways to reach a destination. Different paths can take you to the place you want to be. In this case. A mix of paths might join together to get you there. This week, I’m going with three different wideouts with differing outlooks. One is a chalk play; one is a boom/bust option; and one is a contrarian play. Oh, and there’s a matchup-based option I’m looking to avoid. That’s how it works. It’s the DFS Tournament Three and Out. Let’s go!

I'm In:

D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears ($6,500 on DraftKings; $7,700 on FanDuel)
Let's start with a chalk play. ... Moore's chemistry with Justin Fields has becomes clearer with each passing week. The connection has led to 210 yards with a touchdown over the last two games. Maybe more impressive, Moore has drawn 22 targets over that span. Opportunities matter. They matter even more in favorable matchups. As ESPN's Mike Clay notes, these teams met in Week 11, and Jerry Jacobs shadowed Moore on 21 of his 25 routes, including 18 of 19 on the perimeter and three of six in the slot. The plan didn't work well, with Moore posting catching seven passes for 96 yards with a touchdown on nine targets in the game. Clay acknowledged Jacobs has otherwise shadowed full time only once (Week 3), so this matchup is far from a lock, but considering it was the game plan just three weeks ago, there's a decent chance Jacobs chases Moore around this weekend. Digging deeper, FantasyPros' Derek Brown notes that since Week 8, Detroit has the ninth-highest rate of single-high (61.1%). Moore has a 25.4% target share, a 40.1% air-yard share and a 37.2% first-read share against single-high. Whatever the individual matchup, this holds up from a higher level as well. The Lions are stingy against the run, but have struggled through the air. Since Week 9, they have allowed the second-most touchdowns and 10th-most yards to receivers.

Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills ($5,800 on DraftKings; $6,800 on FanDuel)
Time for a high-variance, high-upside play. ... If we're taking chances, how about a callback to a player who built his reputation for spike performance against the team he's playing on Sunday? It's safe to say Davis, working primarily as a situational player at the time, was flying well under the radar before his 201-yard, four-touchdown game against the Chiefs in Buffalo's Division Playoff loss back in January of 2022. That led to an inflated ADP in the summer of 2022 and a disappointing finish for fantasy managers who invested in him. This year, Davis is still boom bust. But the busts have been fewer and slightly further between. Davis was held without a single catch or even target in Week 11, but he was able to bounce back and have a great game in Week 12. He finished as Buffalo's leading receiver with 105 yards on the day and was also able to get in the end zone against an admittedly generous Eagles pass defense before the bye. This week, if Josh Allen is looking to attack deep (and it seems reasonable to believe he will), Davis should be part of the equation. As Brown notes, Davis leads the team with 17 deep targets (compared to Stefon Diggs' 14). Since Week 8 with Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid integrated into the offense. Davis has seen a 17.1% target share, a 31.8% air-yard share (team-leading) and a 22.0% first read share. Brown went on to notes that since Week 9, Kansas City has utilized two-high coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (74.3%). Since Week 8, Davis has led the team with three deep targets against two-high coverage. Assuming L'Jarius Sneed is covering Diggs all day, Davis will see favorable matchups against a pass defense that over the past four weeks ranks bottom-10 in fantasy PPG allowed to wide receivers. As Brown summed up: "Davis is primed for a monster day."

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons ($4,600 on DraftKings; $6,400 on FanDuel)
How about a contrarian play? Playing in a run-first offense with a less-than-ideal situation at quarterback, London definitely qualifies. As Brown put it, "I can’t wait until London has at least league-average quarterback play" to go with London's obvious talent (something we've seen flashes of when the Falcons are forced to pass and he gets catchable targets). Add in the fact he was held to just 1.8 fantasy points in last week's win over the New York Jets and the contrarian vibe gets stronger. But as The Sporting News' Nick Brinkerhoff suggested, when we see the Buccaneers on the schedule, we immediately look to see what WR1 is going to have a big day. Since Week 8, the Falcons have allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers. In fact, London hauled in six-of-seven targets for 54 yards and almost added a score against this very unit in Week 7. Brown notes that since Week 2, London has had a 22.3% target share, a 30.1% air-yard share and a 28.3% first-read share -- all great metrics. Unfortunately for London, he has seen only three red-zone targets over his last six games. The good news? All three of them came against the Buccaneers in that Week 7 tilt. As Brinkerhoff summed up: "London is a high-upside option even in an offense that doesn't throw the ball with efficiency." And he's priced accordingly.

I'm Out:

Nico Collins, WR, York Jets ($7,600 on DraftKings; $7,800 on FanDuel)
And now for a matchup-based play that I'll be avoiding. ... I don't want to oversimplify this, but the Jets have allowed the fewest yards, touchdowns and fantasy points to wide receivers as well as the fewest points to the perimeter this season. According to Clay, New York is the only defense that has held the opposing WR unit below its season average otherwise in 100% of games. Yes, Collins is coming off a huge performance, scoring a season-high 34.1 fantasy points in a win over the Broncos. Can he beat a tough matchup again this week? Maybe. As Brown suggested, with Tank Dell out, Collins should see an elite workload again this week, which can help him overcome the brutal matchup. But if he does, it won't be on my dime.